Bayern München v Arsenal

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Arsenal win at 40%.
2. 2′KICK-OFF Bayern München v Arsenal
3. 3′Much as we predicted: Arsenal was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
4. 11′SUBSTITUTION · 10' Arsenal · On: Eberechi Eze · Off: Bukayo Saka
5. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Kai Havertz · Arsenal
6. 25′We published Arsenal at 40%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 12–20–68
7. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Bayern München 0–1 Arsenal
8. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Arsenal win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
9. 26′GOAL DISALLOWED · 26' Arsenal
10. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Arsenal win: 40% at kick-off, 37% now
11. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Bayern München 0–1 Arsenal · Eberechi Eze
12. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Arsenal win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
13. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 11–20–68
14. 35′Bayern München level it on 35′ through Alphonso Davies. 1–1. 1–1 · 31–33–36
15. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Bayern München 1–1 Arsenal · Alphonso Davies
16. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Arsenal win: 40% at kick-off, 36% now
17. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Ezri Konsa · Arsenal
18. 45′HALF-TIME Bayern München 1–1 Arsenal
19. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bayern München · On: Jonathan Tah · Off: Kim Min-Jae
20. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Arsenal win 35%)
21. 46′SECOND HALF Bayern München 1–1 Arsenal
22. 49′We said Arsenal at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 2–1 · 68–23–10
23. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Bayern München 2–1 Arsenal
24. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Arsenal win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
25. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Bayern München win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 39%)
26. 50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' Bayern München
27. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Arsenal win: 40% at kick-off, 32% now
28. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Bayern München win 68%)
29. 60′We said Arsenal at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 25–47–28
30. 61′Harry Kane scores for Bayern München on 61′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 72–21–6
31. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Bayern München 2–1 Arsenal · Harry Kane (penalty)
32. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Arsenal win: 40% at kick-off, 6% now
33. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Bayern München win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 48%)
34. 63′We said Arsenal at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 2–1 · 73–21–6
35. 63′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 73–21–6
36. 67′We said Arsenal at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
37. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Bayern München · On: Luis Díaz · Off: Ismael Saibari
38. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Bayern München · On: Lennart Karl · Off: Serge Gnabry
39. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Arsenal · On: Myles Lewis-Skelly · Off: Bruno Guimarães
40. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Arsenal · On: Viktor Gyökeres · Off: Kai Havertz
41. 82′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 10–78–11
42. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Bayern München 2–2 Arsenal
43. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Bayern München win 89%)
44. 83′82′: Declan Rice on the scoresheet for Arsenal, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 9–81–10
45. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Arsenal · On: Mikel Merino · Off: Martin Odegaard
46. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Bayern München · On: Nathaniel Brown · Off: Alphonso Davies
47. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Bayern München · On: Bara Sapoko Ndiaye · Off: Luis Díaz
48. FTFULL TIME Bayern München 2–2 Arsenal
49. FTBayern München 2–2 Arsenal · Arsenal win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.