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Atletico Madrid v Manchester United

Atletico Madrid

2–0Full time

Manchester United

UEFA Champions League · TUE 13 OCT · Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Atletico Madrid 2–0 Manchester United ATLETICO MADRID WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Madrid win~~46%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.442

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.364

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Madrid win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atletico Madrid 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
1′KICK-OFF Atletico Madrid v Manchester United
2′Pablo Barrios Rivas scores for Atletico Madrid on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–17–14
2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Atletico Madrid 1–0 Manchester United · Pablo Barrios Rivas
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Atletico Madrid win: 46% at kick-off, 69% now
3′We said Atletico Madrid at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–17–13
6′We said Atletico Madrid at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–17–13
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–10
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Diego Pablo Simeone · Atletico Madrid
44′43′ and it is 2–0: Johnny Cardoso on the scoresheet for Atletico Madrid. 2–0 · 92–6–2
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Atletico Madrid 2–0 Manchester United · Johnny Cardoso
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Atletico Madrid win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Atletico Madrid win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME Atletico Madrid 1–0 Manchester United
46′SECOND HALF Atletico Madrid 1–0 Manchester United
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Marcus Rashford · Manchester United
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Atletico Madrid · On: Marc Pubill · Off: Pablo Barrios Rivas Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Atletico Madrid · On: Jonathan David · Off: Lee Kang-In Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Manchester United · On: Mason Mount · Off: Youri Tielemans Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Manchester United · On: Amad Diallo · Off: Marcus Rashford Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Manchester United · On: Mason Mount · Off: Carlos Baleba Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Atletico Madrid · On: Ademola Lookman · Off: Alejandro Baena Rodríguez Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Atletico Madrid · On: Morten Hjulmand · Off: Julián Álvarez Corrected
75′Manchester United are down to ten from 74′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 84–14–2
75′🟥 RED CARD · 74' Leny Yoro · Manchester United
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Atletico Madrid win: 46% at kick-off, 84% now
77′We said Atletico Madrid at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
80′79′ and it is 2–0: Ademola Lookman on the scoresheet for Atletico Madrid. 2–0 · 99–1–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Atletico Madrid 2–0 Manchester United · Ademola Lookman
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Atletico Madrid win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Manchester United · On: Matheus Cunha · Off: Bruno Fernandes Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Manchester United · On: Harry Maguire · Off: Ayden Heaven Corrected
84′We said Atletico Madrid at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Atletico Madrid · On: Robin Le Normand · Off: Giuliano Simeone Baldini Corrected
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Robin Le Normand · Atletico Madrid
FTFULL TIME Atletico Madrid 2–0 Manchester United
FTAtletico Madrid 2–0 Manchester United · Atletico Madrid win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Madrid win46%

Draw24%

Manchester United win30%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 20:00

VenueRiyadh Air Metropolitano

RefereeGlenn Nyberg

Line-ups

Atletico Madrid

4-4-2

Manchester United

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atletico Madrid

Manchester United

34Days since last match33

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
30	Manchester United	1	+4	3
69	Atletico Madrid	1	−1	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Why are Atletico Madrid players wearing black armbands vs Man Utd as UEFA approve tributeMirror Football · 10 min ago · Atletico Madrid, Manchester United

Atlético Madrid v Manchester United: Champions League – liveThe Guardian · 37 min ago · Atletico Madrid, Manchester United, Arsenal, Lille

Kai Rooney thumped on UEFA Youth League debut after Man United star's injury hellMirror Football · 39 min ago · Manchester United

Manchester United XI vs Atletico Madrid: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Champions League todayEvening Standard · 44 min ago · Manchester United, Atletico Madrid

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico Madrid

4-4-2

13 J. Oblak

14 M. Llorente

21 C. Romero

17 D. Hancko

22 A. Grimaldo

20 G. Simeone

8 P. Barrios

5 J. Cardoso

10 A. Baena

7 Lee Kang-In

19 J. Alvarez

Coach · Diego Simeone

Substitutes

1 · J. Musso

24 · R. Le Normand

18 · M. Pubill

30 · D. Martinez

27 · J. Dominguez

23 · M. Hjulmand

4 · R. Mendoza

46 · J. Castillo

9 · A. Sorloth

11 · A. Lookman

15 · J. David

16 · A. Ortiz

Manchester United

4-2-3-1

1 S. Lammens

2 D. Dalot

15 L. Yoro

6 L. Martinez

26 A. Heaven

17 Andrey Santos

20 C. Baleba

8 B. Fernandes

18 Y. Tielemans

9 M. Rashford

19 B. Mbeumo

Coach · Michael Carrick

Substitutes

12 · K. Darlow

45 · D. Mee

5 · H. Maguire

4 · M. de Ligt

41 · H. Amass

57 · D. Armer

7 · M. Mount

39 · T. Fletcher

11 · J. Zirkzee

10 · M. Cunha

16 · A. Diallo

31 · S. Lacey

Our number · atletico madrid winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

46% The market51%

Us46%

~~Market~~51%

We make Atletico Madrid a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atletico madrid win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Madrid win	46%	51%	−5
Draw	24%	25%	−2
Manchester United win	30%	24%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	61%	57%	+5
Both teams to score	63%	58%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	83%	78%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	39%	36%	+3
Atletico Madrid or draw	70%	76%	−6
Atletico Madrid clean sheet	25%	–	–
Manchester United clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.5 5.6 4.1 1 7.1 10.8 7.3 3.4 2 6.6 9.2 6.5 3.0 3 3.9 5.4 3.8 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Madrid down, Manchester United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Atletico Madrid play in the La Liga, Manchester United in the Premier League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Atletico Madrid are at home.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Atletico Madrid, 1.40 for Manchester United. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 19:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MAN 0–1 ATL · ATL 1–1 MAN

Form · last six in UEFA Champions League

ATLETICO MADRID

LWLDLL2–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

MANCHESTER UNITED

LWLDLW2–3 · 1–0 · 3–4 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sabah FA	9	+5	18
2	Fenerbahçe	7	+5	15
3	Levski Sofia	8	+3	15
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	+4	12
5	Slovan Bratislava	7	0	12
6	Dinamo Zagreb	6	+4	9
7	Ararat-Armenia	6	+1	9
8	Kairat Almaty	6	+1	9
9	Bodo/Glimt	5	0	8
10	Kauno Žalgiris	6	−4	8
11	AEK Athens FC	3	+5	7
12	Universitatea Craiova	4	+3	7
13	Celje	6	+1	7
14	KI Klaksvik	4	+1	7
15	Vikingur Reykjavik	4	0	7
16	FK Crvena Zvezda	4	+6	6
17	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	4	+5	6
18	Sturm Graz	4	+3	6
19	Shamrock Rovers	4	+1	6
20	Aarhus	4	−3	6
21	Larne	4	−7	6
22	FC Iberia 1999	4	−1	5
23	Lincoln Red Imps FC	4	−1	5
24	Lyon	4	+1	4
25	Viking	3	0	4
26	Mjallby AIF	4	0	4
27	Paris Saint Germain	1	+5	3
28	Bayern München	1	+5	3
29	Barcelona	1	+4	3
30	Manchester United	1	+4	3
31	Como	1	+3	3
32	Sporting CP	1	+2	3
33	VfB Stuttgart	1	+2	3
34	Manchester City	1	+2	3
35	Aston Villa	1	+1	3
36	Borussia Dortmund	1	+1	3
37	Lens	1	+1	3
38	Real Betis	1	+1	3
39	Liverpool	1	+1	3
40	Real Madrid	1	+1	3
41	Arsenal	1	+1	3
42	Celtic	2	0	3
43	Lech Poznan	2	0	3
44	Vardar Skopje	2	0	3
45	Omonia Nicosia	2	0	3
46	Lask Linz	3	−1	3
47	Riga	2	−1	3
48	Floriana	2	−2	3
49	Sparta Praha	2	−2	3
50	KuPS	4	−3	3
51	Union St. Gilloise	2	0	2
52	FC Thun	2	0	2
53	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	0	2
54	NEC Nijmegen	4	−5	2
55	AS Roma	1	0	1
56	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1
57	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1
58	Flora Tallinn	2	−1	1
59	Drita	2	−1	1
60	Gyori ETO FC	2	−1	1
61	Gornik Zabrze	2	−1	1
62	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	−2	1
63	Borac Banja Luka	2	−4	1
64	Petrocub	2	−5	1
65	Club Brugge KV	1	−1	0
66	Lille	1	−1	0
67	Slavia Praha	1	−1	0
68	Villarreal	1	−1	0
69	Atletico Madrid	1	−1	0
70	Inter	1	−1	0
71	Napoli	1	−1	0
72	Atert Bissen	2	−2	0
73	Galatasaray	1	−2	0
74	Tre Fiori	2	−2	0
75	FC Porto	1	−2	0
76	RB Leipzig	1	−3	0
77	Sutjeska	2	−3	0
78	The New Saints	2	−3	0
79	Feyenoord	1	−4	0
80	ML Vitebsk	2	−4	0
81	Heart Of Midlothian	2	−6	0