Aston Villa v Viking prediction · UEFA Champions League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 22:30

Aston Villa 3–1 Viking ASTON VILLA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aston Villa win~~72%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.121

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.094

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aston Villa win at 72%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Aston Villa 72% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 72–17–12
1′KICK-OFF Aston Villa v Viking
22′We said Aston Villa at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Aston Villa 1–0 Viking
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Aston Villa win: 72% at kick-off, 87% now
23′Aston Villa score on 23′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–4
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
36′We said Aston Villa at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–1
36′PENALTY · 35' Aston Villa
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Aston Villa 2–0 Viking
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Aston Villa win: 72% at kick-off, 97% now
37′Aston Villa ahead on 37′ through Emiliano Buendía. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
45′SECOND HALF Aston Villa 2–0 Viking
48′HALF-TIME Aston Villa 2–0 Viking
62′We said Aston Villa at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Aston Villa 3–0 Viking
64′An own goal by Viking's Henrik Heggheim on 62′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Viking · On: Henrik Bjørdal · Off: Tobias Moi
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Viking · On: Simen Kvia Egeskog · Off: Erik Botheim
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Aston Villa · On: Matty Cash · Off: João Gomes
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Aston Villa · On: Tammy Abraham · Off: Nicolas Jackson
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Aston Villa · On: Leon Goretzka · Off: Ross Barkley
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Aston Villa · On: Alejandro Garnacho · Off: Ibrahim Mbaye
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Aston Villa · On: George Hemmings · Off: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Viking · On: Vetle Auklend · Off: Jesper Daland Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Viking · On: Amin Cosic · Off: Zlatko Tripić Corrected
84′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Aston Villa 3–1 Viking
84′GOAL DISALLOWED · 84' Viking
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Aston Villa 3–1 Viking
87′84′: Peter Christiansen on the scoresheet for Viking, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Viking · On: Essien Bassey · Off: Herman Haugen
FTFULL TIME Aston Villa 3–1 Viking
FTAston Villa 3–1 Viking · Aston Villa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aston Villa are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aston Villa 72%, draw 17%, Viking 12%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Aston Villa v VikingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Aston Villa win72%

Draw17%

Viking win12%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueVilla Park

RefereeSebastian Gishamer

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

Viking

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aston Villa

Viking

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Premier League

Last match: 17 Oct · Eliteserien

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Aston Villa	2	+7	6
29	Viking	2	−2	1

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Aston Villa v Viking, Real Madrid v RB Leipzig and more: Champions League – liveThe Guardian · 21 Oct 18:44 · Aston Villa, Viking, Real Madrid, RB Leipzig

How to watch Aston Villa vs Viking – TV channel, live stream and kick-off timeMirror Football · 21 Oct 17:00 · Aston Villa, Viking

'I've waited 34 years for this' - Viking's 'special' storyBBC Sport · 21 Oct 06:49 · Viking

Aston Villa latest: Manzambi misses Viking tie, Wan Bissaka, Ruggeri out for longerSky Sports · 20 Oct 15:51 · Aston Villa, Viking

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

1 Z. Suzuki

35 João Gomes

3 V. Lindelöf

14 Pau Torres

5 T. Mings

7 J. McGinn

6 R. Barkley

47 Alysson Edward

10 E. Buendía

19 I. Mbaye

11 N. Jackson

Coach · Unai Emery

Substitutes

40 · M. Bizot

26 · L. Bogarde

2 · M. Cash

17 · A. Garnacho

27 · L. Goretzka

4 · T. Harwood-Bellis

53 · George Hemmings

8 · B. Kamara

22 · I. Maatsen

42 · J. Wright

18 · T. Abraham

Viking

4-3-3

1 A. Østbø

2 H. Haugen

6 G. Stensness

27 J. Daland

5 H. Heggheim

29 T. Moi

8 J. Bell

7 K. Askildsen

20 P. Christiansen

22 E. Botheim

10 Z. Tripić

Coach · B. Aarsheim

Substitutes

24 · Vetle Auklend

17 · E. Bassey

30 · Ľ. Belko

16 · H. Bjørdal

19 · A. Cosic

28 · K. Haugen

3 · V. Vevatne

23 · N. Fuglestad

26 · S. Kvia-Egeskog

11 · R. Postema

33 · J. Hansen

25 · H. Falchener

Our number · aston villa winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 04:22 · locked at kick-off

72% The market75%

Us72%

~~Market~~75%

We make Aston Villa a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aston Villa v Viking~~2.55 – 0.95

~~Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 18 Aug~~W2 D0 L0 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 1~~4 v 29

~~The market · Aston Villa win~~75% · ours 72%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aston Villa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 72% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aston Villa win	72%	75%	−3
Draw	17%	15%	+2
Viking win	12%	10%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	68%	75%	−7
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	89%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	46%	57%	−11
Aston Villa or draw	88%	90%	−2
Aston Villa clean sheet	39%	–	–
Viking clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.8%

0123450 3.3 2.6 1 7.5 7.6 3.5 2 9.8 9.3 4.4 3 8.4 7.9 3.8 4 5.3 5.1 2.4 5 2.7 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Aston Villa down, Viking across0–5 goals a side shown (95.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 409,489 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 20 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Aston Villa play in the English Premier League, Viking in Eliteserien.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Aston Villa are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

2.55 goals for Aston Villa, 0.95 for Viking. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 18 Aug

ASTON VILLA

WW3–2 · 6–0

VIKING

DWLD2–2 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paris Saint Germain	3	+9	9
2	Liverpool	3	+5	9
3	VfB Stuttgart	3	+5	7
4	Aston Villa	2	+7	6
5	Barcelona	3	+5	6
6	Manchester City	3	+4	6
7	Sporting CP	2	+4	6
8	Arsenal	2	+4	6
9	Real Madrid	2	+2	6
10	Real Betis	2	+2	6
11	Borussia Dortmund	3	+1	6
12	Bayern München	2	+5	4
13	AS Roma	3	+3	4
14	Shakhtar Donetsk	2	+2	4
15	Atletico Madrid	3	+1	4
16	PSV Eindhoven	3	0	4
17	Como	2	+2	3
18	Manchester United	2	+2	3
19	Villarreal	3	0	3
20	Club Brugge KV	2	0	3
21	Lens	2	−1	3
22	Napoli	3	−2	3
23	RB Leipzig	2	−2	3
24	Feyenoord	2	−3	3
25	Sabah FA	3	−3	3
26	Bodo/Glimt	3	−5	3
27	AEK Athens FC	3	−5	3
28	Fenerbahçe	3	−6	2
29	Viking	2	−2	1
30	Slavia Praha	3	−3	1
31	Inter	2	−2	0
32	Lask Linz	2	−4	0
33	FC Porto	3	−4	0
34	Lille	2	−4	0
35	Galatasaray	2	−5	0
36	Slovan Bratislava	3	−12	0