Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe prediction · UEFA Champions League

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 23:00

Aston Villa 6–0 Fenerbahçe ASTON VILLA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aston Villa win~~64%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.196

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.279

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aston Villa win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Aston Villa was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–20–16
1′KICK-OFF Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe
11′A goal for Aston Villa on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–11–5
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Aston Villa 1–0 Fenerbahçe
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Aston Villa win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
12′We published Aston Villa at 64%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–11–5
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Aston Villa win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
30′We published Aston Villa at 64%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Aston Villa 2–0 Fenerbahçe · Johan Manzambi
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Aston Villa win: 64% at kick-off, 96% now
31′31′ and it is 2–0: Nicolas Jackson on the scoresheet for Aston Villa. 2–0 · 96–4–1
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Aston Villa 3–0 Fenerbahçe · Nicolas Jackson
39′Aston Villa ahead on 39′ through Nicolas Jackson. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Mattéo Guendouzi · Fenerbahçe
45′SECOND HALF Aston Villa 3–0 Fenerbahçe
46′HALF-TIME Aston Villa 3–0 Fenerbahçe
47′We published Aston Villa at 64%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
67′Ross Barkley scores for Aston Villa on 68′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Aston Villa 4–0 Fenerbahçe · Nicolas Jackson
67′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Fenerbahçe · On: Bartuğ Elmaz · Off: Ismail Yüksek
67′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Fenerbahçe · On: Romelu Lukaku · Off: Vedat Muriqi
67′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Fenerbahçe · On: Nene Dorgeles · Off: Mason Greenwood
67′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Fenerbahçe · On: Romelu Lukaku · Off: Vedat Muriqi
67′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Fenerbahçe · On: Nene Dorgeles · Off: Mason Greenwood
71′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Aston Villa 5–0 Fenerbahçe · Ross Barkley
73′72′ and it is 5–0: Ross Barkley on the scoresheet for Aston Villa. 5–0 · 100–0–0
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Aston Villa · On: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha · Off: Boubacar Kamara
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Aston Villa · On: João Gomes · Off: Johan Manzambi
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Aston Villa · On: João Gomes · Off: Johan Manzambi
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Oğuz Aydın · Fenerbahçe
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Aston Villa · On: Tammy Abraham · Off: Nicolas Jackson
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Aston Villa · On: Alejandro Garnacho · Off: Ibrahim Mbaye
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Aston Villa · On: Leon Goretzka · Off: Ross Barkley
89′6 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 6–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Aston Villa 6–0 Fenerbahçe · Ross Barkley
90′Aston Villa ahead on 90′ through Tammy Abraham. 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
91′Full time, 6–0. We called Aston Villa at 64% — that one lands. 6–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Aston Villa 6–0 Fenerbahçe
FTAston Villa 6–0 Fenerbahçe · Aston Villa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aston Villa are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aston Villa 64%, draw 20%, Fenerbahçe 16%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Aston Villa v FenerbahçeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 19:18 · locked at kick-off

Aston Villa win64%

Draw20%

Fenerbahçe win16%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 20:00

VenueVilla Park

RefereeIvan Kruzliak

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

Fenerbahçe

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Aston Villa

Fenerbahçe

36Days since last match34

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Aston Villa	1	1	3
24	Fenerbahçe	1	0	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

What's happening to Villa Park? Aston Villa's new stand plan and how long it's closed forMirror Football · 1 hour ago · Aston Villa

Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce TV channel, live stream and kick-off timeMirror Football · 2 hours ago · Aston Villa

Mason Greenwood's journey since leaving Man Utd as he prepares for frosty England returnMirror Football · 6 hours ago · Manchester United, Aston Villa

Emery confirms Ruggeri injury blow for Italy and Aston VillaFootball Italia · 1 day ago · Aston Villa

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

1 Z. Suzuki

2 M. Cash

3 V. Lindelöf

14 Pau Torres

29 A. Wan-Bissaka

8 B. Kamara

6 R. Barkley

7 J. McGinn

44 J. Manzambi

19 I. Mbaye

11 N. Jackson

Coach · Unai Emery

Substitutes

18 · T. Abraham

10 · E. Buendía

17 · A. Garnacho

35 · João Gomes

27 · L. Goretzka

5 · T. Mings

42 · J. Wright

47 · Alysson Edward

26 · L. Bogarde

40 · M. Bizot

Fenerbahçe

4-2-3-1

31 Ederson

27 Nélson Semedo

37 M. Škriniar

15 N. Aké

3 A. Brown

5 İ. Yüksek

6 M. Guendouzi

11 M. Greenwood

17 İ. Kahveci

70 O. Aydın

19 V. Muriqi

Coach · İ. Kartal

Substitutes

13 · T. Çetin

14 · Y. Demir

28 · B. Elmaz

34 · M. Günok

91 · N. Kanté

9 · R. Lukaku

22 · L. Mercan

77 · O. Mimović

45 · N. Dorgeles

21 · K. Peprah Oppong

7 · K. Aktürkoğlu

Our number · aston villa winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 19:18 · locked at kick-off

64% The market57%

Us64%

~~Market~~57%

We make Aston Villa a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe~~2.15 – 0.98

~~Last six in UEFA Champions League~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~11 v 24

~~The market · Aston Villa win~~57% · ours 64%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aston villa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aston Villa win	64%	57%	+7
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Fenerbahçe win	16%	20%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	61%	59%	+1
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	38%	0
Aston Villa or draw	84%	80%	+4
Aston Villa clean sheet	38%	–	–
Fenerbahçe clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.1%

0123450 4.7 4.0 2.1 1 9.1 9.5 4.5 2 10.1 9.9 4.8 3 7.3 7.1 3.5 4 3.9 3.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aston Villa down, Fenerbahçe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Aston Villa play in the Premier League, Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Aston Villa are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Aston Villa, 0.98 for Fenerbahçe. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in UEFA Champions League since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in UEFA Champions League

ASTON VILLA

WWWLWW4–2 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 3–2

FENERBAHÇE

DWWDWD1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	2	7	6
2	Sporting CP	2	4	6
3	Arsenal	2	4	6
4	Bayern München	2	5	4
5	Paris Saint Germain	1	5	3
6	Como	1	3	3
7	Manchester United	2	2	3
8	VfB Stuttgart	1	2	3
9	Manchester City	1	2	3
10	Villarreal	2	1	3
11	Aston Villa	1	1	3
12	Real Betis	1	1	3
13	Atletico Madrid	2	1	3
14	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	3
15	Liverpool	1	1	3
16	Real Madrid	1	1	3
17	AEK Athens FC	1	1	3
18	Club Brugge KV	2	0	3
19	Lens	2	-1	3
20	RB Leipzig	2	-2	3
21	Sabah FA	2	-2	3
22	AS Roma	1	0	1
23	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1
24	Fenerbahçe	1	0	1
25	PSV Eindhoven	2	-1	1
26	Viking	2	-2	1
27	Lask Linz	1	-1	0
28	Inter	2	-2	0
29	FC Porto	1	-2	0
30	Slavia Praha	2	-3	0
31	Napoli	2	-3	0
32	Lille	2	-4	0
33	Feyenoord	1	-4	0
34	Galatasaray	2	-5	0
35	Slovan Bratislava	1	-5	0
36	Bodo/Glimt	1	-5	0