AS Roma v Slovan Bratislava prediction · UEFA Champions League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

AS Roma 4–0 Slovan Bratislava AS ROMA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AS Roma win~~84%

~~The market said~~86%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.041

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.029

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AS Roma win at 84%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AS Roma 84% before kick-off, 84% now. 0–0 · 84–11–5
1′KICK-OFF AS Roma v Slovan Bratislava
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' AS Roma
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Tigran·Barseghyan · Slovan Bratislava
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' AS Roma 1–0 Slovan Bratislava
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' AS Roma win: 84% at kick-off, 94% now
22′Mario Hermoso scores for AS Roma on 21′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–5–1
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 93–6–1
38′We said AS Roma at 84% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' AS Roma 2–0 Slovan Bratislava
40′39′: Nahuel Molina on the scoresheet for AS Roma, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
45′SECOND HALF AS Roma 2–0 Slovan Bratislava
46′HALF-TIME AS Roma 2–0 Slovan Bratislava
52′We said AS Roma at 84% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' AS Roma 3–0 Slovan Bratislava
52′SUBSTITUTION · 51' AS Roma · On: Matias Soule · Off: Lorenzo Pellegrini
53′AS Roma ahead on 53′ through Niccolò Pisilli. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
54′AS Roma ahead on 52′ through Niccolò Pisilli. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Slovan Bratislava · On: Alasana Yirajang · Off: Tigran·Barseghyan
57′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' AS Roma 4–0 Slovan Bratislava
58′Donyell Malen scores for AS Roma on 58′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' AS Roma · On: Santiago Thomas Castro · Off: Donyell Malen
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' AS Roma · On: Devyne Rensch · Off: Wesley Vinícius França Lima
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Suleiman Camara · Slovan Bratislava
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Slovan Bratislava · On: Cristian Martínez · Off: artur gajdos
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Slovan Bratislava · On: Alen Mustafić · Off: Rash Rahim Ibrahim
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Slovan Bratislava · On: Alexej Maroš · Off: Suleiman Camara
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Cristian Martínez · Slovan Bratislava
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' AS Roma · On: Konstantinos Koulierakis · Off: Mario Hermoso
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' AS Roma · On: Gianluca Mancini · Off: Marten de Roon
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Slovan Bratislava · On: Kevin Wimmer · Off: Sandro Cruz
87′5 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' AS Roma 5–0 Slovan Bratislava
87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' AS Roma
FTFULL TIME AS Roma 4–0 Slovan Bratislava
FTAS Roma 4–0 Slovan Bratislava · AS Roma win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AS Roma are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AS Roma 84%, draw 11%, Slovan Bratislava 5%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on AS Roma v Slovan BratislavaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

AS Roma win84%

Draw11%

Slovan Bratislava win5%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueStadio Olimpico

RefereeSandro Schärer

Line-ups

AS Roma

3-4-2-1

Slovan Bratislava

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AS Roma

Slovan Bratislava

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the Italian Serie A

Last match: 17 Oct · the Slovak Super Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
25	AS Roma	2	−1	1
36	Slovan Bratislava	2	−8	0

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Balerdi: ‘I feel good in any role’ as Roma transform back 3Football Italia · 20 Oct 19:04 · AS Roma Champions League line-ups: Roma vs. Slovan BratislavaFootball Italia · 20 Oct 18:53 · AS Roma, Slovan Bratislava Official: Roma confirm 22-man squad list for Slovan Bratislava in Champions LeagueFootball Italia · 20 Oct 15:11 · AS Roma, Slovan Bratislava UCL: Roma vs. Slovan Bratislava – Probable line-ups and where to watch on TVFootball Italia · 20 Oct 14:20 · AS Roma, Slovan Bratislava

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AS Roma

3-4-2-1

95 P. Gollini

87 D. Ghilardi

26 L. Balerdi

22 Hermoso

20 N. Molina

15 M. de Roon

61 N. Pisilli

43 Wesley

86 Rodrigo Mora

7 L. Pellegrini

14 D. Malen

Coach · G. Gasperini

Substitutes

5 · E. Ndicka

2 · D. Rensch

18 · M. Soulé

32 · D. Vásquez

9 · S. Castro

4 · B. Cristante

70 · G. De Marzi

63 · Alessandro Di Nunzio

3 · K. Koulierakis

77 · E. Lulli

23 · G. Mancini

Slovan Bratislava

4-1-4-1

71 D. Takáč

28 C. Blackman

12 K. Bajrič

15 S. Marković

57 Sandro Cruz

3 P. Pokorný

11 T. Barseghyan

5 R. Ibrahim

8 A. Gajdoš

21 Suleiman Camara

10 N. Marcelli

Coach · Yaya Touré

Substitutes

7 · L. Hofstadter

77 · D. Ignatenko

2 · S. Kozlovský

70 · Cristian Jesús Martínez

88 · D. Matsuoka

20 · A. Mustafić

1 · A. Popović

26 · R. Tománek

6 · K. Wimmer

14 · A. Yirajang

49 · S. Camara

29 · A. Maroš

Our number · as roma winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

84% The market86%

Us84%

~~Market~~86%

We make AS Roma an 84% chance to win. The market has them at 86%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.9–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AS Roma v Slovan Bratislava~~2.93 – 0.62

~~Form · last six in UEFA Champions League this season · since 4 Aug~~W0 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 0~~25 v 36

~~The market · AS Roma win~~86% · ours 84%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AS Roma win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 86% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AS Roma win	84%	86%	−2
Draw	11%	9%	+2
Slovan Bratislava win	5%	4%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	69%	77%	−8
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	90%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	47%	59%	−12
AS Roma or draw	95%	96%	−1
AS Roma clean sheet	54%	–	–
Slovan Bratislava clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.4%

0123450 3.0 1 8.3 5.4 2 12.4 7.6 2.3 3 12.1 7.4 2.3 4 8.9 5.5 5 5.2 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+AS Roma down, Slovan Bratislava across0–5 goals a side shown (92.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 410,768 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 19 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

AS Roma play in the Italian Serie A, Slovan Bratislava in the Slovak Super Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: AS Roma are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

2.93 goals for AS Roma, 0.62 for Slovan Bratislava. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 20 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Champions League this season · since 4 Aug

AS ROMA

DL1–1 · 3–4

SLOVAN BRATISLAVA

WWDDLL2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–6 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paris Saint Germain	2	+7	6
2	Barcelona	2	+7	6
3	Aston Villa	2	+7	6
4	VfB Stuttgart	2	+5	6
5	Liverpool	2	+4	6
6	Sporting CP	2	+4	6
7	Arsenal	2	+4	6
8	Real Madrid	2	+2	6
9	Real Betis	2	+2	6
10	Bayern München	2	+5	4
11	Shakhtar Donetsk	2	+2	4
12	Como	2	+2	3
13	Manchester United	2	+2	3
14	Villarreal	2	+1	3
15	Atletico Madrid	2	+1	3
16	Club Brugge KV	2	0	3
17	Manchester City	2	0	3
18	Borussia Dortmund	2	0	3
19	Lens	2	−1	3
20	AEK Athens FC	2	−1	3
21	RB Leipzig	2	−2	3
22	Sabah FA	2	−2	3
23	Feyenoord	2	−3	3
24	Bodo/Glimt	2	−4	3
25	AS Roma	2	−1	1
26	PSV Eindhoven	2	−1	1
27	Viking	2	−2	1
28	Fenerbahçe	2	−6	1
29	Inter	2	−2	0
30	FC Porto	2	−3	0
31	Slavia Praha	2	−3	0
32	Napoli	2	−3	0
33	Lask Linz	2	−4	0
34	Lille	2	−4	0
35	Galatasaray	2	−5	0
36	Slovan Bratislava	2	−8	0