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AS Roma v Real Madrid

AS Roma

3–4Full time

Real Madrid

UEFA Champions League · WED 14 OCT · Stadio Olimpico

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 23:00

AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid REAL MADRID WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Madrid win~~42%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.504

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.380

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 44 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Madrid win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Madrid was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 32–25–42
1′KICK-OFF AS Roma v Real Madrid
17′SUBSTITUTION · 17' AS Roma · On: Niccolò Pisilli · Off: Manu Koné
19′We said Real Madrid at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 60–23–17
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' AS Roma 1–0 Real Madrid
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Real Madrid win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' AS Roma win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Real Madrid win 17%)
20′Marten de Roon scores for AS Roma on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 60–23–17
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' AS Roma 2–0 Real Madrid · Marten de Roon
23′GOAL DISALLOWED · 23' AS Roma
24′We said Real Madrid at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 2–0 · 84–11–5
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' AS Roma 2–0 Real Madrid · Marten de Roon
24′GOAL DISALLOWED · 24' AS Roma
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Real Madrid win: 42% at kick-off, 5% now
25′25′ and it is 1–1: Kylian Mbappé on the scoresheet for Real Madrid. 1–1 · 31–31–39
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' AS Roma 1–1 Real Madrid
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Real Madrid win: 42% at kick-off, 39% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Real Madrid win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was AS Roma win 31%)
26′7.0 shots for AS Roma, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 30–31–39
45′AS Roma have had 8.0 attempts to 3.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 28–38–34
45′SECOND HALF AS Roma 1–1 Real Madrid
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AS Roma · On: Rodrigo Mora · Off: Paulo Dybala
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Real Madrid win 34%)
50′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 67–23–9
50′AS Roma ahead on 51′ through Donyell Malen. 2–1. 2–1 · 67–23–9
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' AS Roma 2–1 Real Madrid · Marten de Roon
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Real Madrid win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' AS Roma win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 23%)
56′We said Real Madrid at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 3–1 · 92–6–1
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' AS Roma 3–1 Real Madrid · Donyell Malen
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Real Madrid win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
57′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 93–6–1
57′Donyell Malen scores for AS Roma on 57′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 93–6–1
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Real Madrid · On: Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa · Off: Vinícius
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Real Madrid · On: Arda Güler · Off: Denzel Dumfries
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' AS Roma · On: Lorenzo Pellegrini · Off: Matias Soule
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' AS Roma · On: Leonardo Balerdi · Off: Gianluca Mancini
67′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 76–20–4
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' AS Roma 3–2 Real Madrid · Kylian Mbappé
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Real Madrid win: 42% at kick-off, 4% now
68′GOAL DISALLOWED · 68' Real Madrid
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Real Madrid win: 42% at kick-off, 0% now
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Wesley Vinícius França Lima · AS Roma
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Real Madrid · On: Bernardo Silva · Off: Aurelien Tchouameni
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Real Madrid · On: Álvaro Fernández Carreras · Off: Marc Cucurella
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Real Madrid · On: Carlos Espí · Off: Yan Diomande
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' AS Roma · On: Konstantinos Koulierakis · Off: Mario Hermoso
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' AS Roma 3–2 Real Madrid · Kylian Mbappé
83′84′ and it is 3–2: Carlos Espí on the scoresheet for Real Madrid. 3–2 · 90–10–1
84′83′ and it is 3–3: Carlos Espí on the scoresheet for Real Madrid. 3–3 · 7–84–9
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' AS Roma 3–3 Real Madrid · Carlos Espí
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Real Madrid win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was AS Roma win 7%)
85′Real Madrid level it on 85′ through Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa. 3–3. 3–3 · 7–85–8
86′We said Real Madrid at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 3–3 · 6–86–8
87′6 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 6–87–7
89′We published Real Madrid at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–4 · 0–4–95
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid · Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Real Madrid win: 42% at kick-off, 95% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Real Madrid win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 4%)
90′Antonio Rüdiger scores for Real Madrid on 90′ — 3–4. 3–4 · 0–4–96
91′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–4 · 0–3–97
FTFULL TIME AS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid
FTAS Roma 3–4 Real Madrid · Real Madrid win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Madrid are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AS Roma 32%, draw 26%, Real Madrid 42%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on AS Roma v Real MadridBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 19:18 · locked at kick-off

AS Roma win32%

Draw26%

Real Madrid win42%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 20:00

VenueStadio Olimpico

RefereeFrancois Letexier

Line-ups

AS Roma

3-4-2-1

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

AS Roma

Real Madrid

34Days since last match36

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Real Madrid	1	1	3
22	AS Roma	1	0	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Vinicius Jr to miss Barcelona game because of banBBC Sport · 3 min ago · Barcelona, Real Madrid

Champions League line-ups: Roma vs. Real MadridFootball Italia · 31 min ago · Real Madrid Champions League Liveblog: Roma vs. Real Madrid and Feyenoord vs. ComoFootball Italia · 2 hours ago · Real Madrid, Feyenoord, Como Martinez outburst Q&A: Wilcox, transfer strategy and what next for United?Sky Sports · 3 hours ago · Real Madrid

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AS Roma

3-4-2-1

95 P. Gollini

23 G. Mancini

5 E. Ndicka

22 Hermoso

43 Wesley

15 M. de Roon

17 M. Koné

20 N. Molina

18 M. Soulé

21 P. Dybala

14 D. Malen

Coach · G. Gasperini

Substitutes

77 · E. Lulli

86 · Rodrigo Mora

7 · L. Pellegrini

61 · N. Pisilli

2 · D. Rensch

32 · D. Vásquez

26 · L. Balerdi

9 · S. Castro

70 · G. De Marzi

87 · D. Ghilardi

3 · K. Koulierakis

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

1 T. Courtois

24 D. Dumfries

16 I. Konaté

22 A. Rüdiger

17 Marc Cucurella

8 F. Valverde

14 A. Tchouaméni

25 Y. Diomande

5 J. Bellingham

7 Vinícius Júnior

10 Kylian Mbappé

Coach · José Mourinho

Substitutes

20 · Bernardo Silva

18 · Álvaro Fernández

21 · Brahim Díaz

9 · Endrick

19 · Carlos Espí

15 · A. Güler

4 · D. Huijsen

13 · A. Lunin

26 · Sergio Mestre

27 · Thiago Pitarch

12 · T. Alexander-Arnold

6 · E. Camavinga

Our number · real madrid winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 19:18 · locked at kick-off

42% The market50%

Us42%

~~Market~~50%

We make Real Madrid a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AS Roma v Real Madrid~~1.29 – 1.51

~~Last six in UEFA Champions League~~W0 D1 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 3~~22 v 16

~~The market · Real Madrid win~~50% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · real madrid win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. The market has gone from 50% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AS Roma win	32%	26%	+6
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Real Madrid win	42%	50%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	53%	66%	−13
Both teams to score	57%	65%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	77%	83%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	31%	45%	−15
AS Roma or draw	58%	50%	+8
AS Roma clean sheet	22%	–	–
Real Madrid clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.5 8.8 7.0 3.5 1 7.5 12.2 9.0 4.5 2 5.0 7.6 5.8 2.9 3 2.2 3.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AS Roma down, Real Madrid across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

AS Roma play in the Serie A, Real Madrid in the La Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: AS Roma are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.29 goals for AS Roma, 1.51 for Real Madrid. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in UEFA Champions League since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in UEFA Champions League

AS ROMA

D1–1

REAL MADRID

WWWLLW2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	2	7	6
2	Sporting CP	2	4	6
3	Arsenal	2	4	6
4	Bayern München	2	5	4
5	Paris Saint Germain	1	5	3
6	Como	1	3	3
7	Manchester United	2	2	3
8	VfB Stuttgart	1	2	3
9	Manchester City	1	2	3
10	Villarreal	2	1	3
11	Aston Villa	1	1	3
12	Real Betis	1	1	3
13	Atletico Madrid	2	1	3
14	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	3
15	Liverpool	1	1	3
16	Real Madrid	1	1	3
17	AEK Athens FC	1	1	3
18	Club Brugge KV	2	0	3
19	Lens	2	-1	3
20	RB Leipzig	2	-2	3
21	Sabah FA	2	-2	3
22	AS Roma	1	0	1
23	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1
24	Fenerbahçe	1	0	1
25	PSV Eindhoven	2	-1	1
26	Viking	2	-2	1
27	Lask Linz	1	-1	0
28	Inter	2	-2	0
29	FC Porto	1	-2	0
30	Slavia Praha	2	-3	0
31	Napoli	2	-3	0
32	Lille	2	-4	0
33	Feyenoord	1	-4	0
34	Galatasaray	2	-5	0
35	Slovan Bratislava	1	-5	0
36	Bodo/Glimt	1	-5	0