Arsenal v Lille prediction · UEFA Champions League

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Arsenal 3–0 Lille ARSENAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arsenal win~~69%

~~The market said~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.147

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.063

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arsenal win at 69%.
1′Much as we predicted: Arsenal was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–21–10
1′KICK-OFF Arsenal v Lille
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Arsenal 0–0 Lille
24′22′ and it is 0–0: Lille have scored. 0–0 · 62–27–11
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Arsenal win: 69% at kick-off, 59% now
35′We said Arsenal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 57%. 0–0 · 57–32–11
41′We said Arsenal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–35–11
45′SECOND HALF Arsenal 0–0 Lille
49′We said Arsenal at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–40–11
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Arsenal win: 69% at kick-off, 49% now
50′7.0 shots for Arsenal, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 49–41–10
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Arsenal 1–0 Lille
63′GOAL DISALLOWED · 63' Arsenal
63′⚽ GOAL · 64' Arsenal 1–0 Lille · Jurriën Timber
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Arsenal · On: Bukayo Saka · Off: Noni Madueke Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Arsenal · On: Kai Havertz · Off: Viktor Gyökeres Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Arsenal · On: Martin Odegaard · Off: Mikel Merino Corrected
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Arsenal 2–0 Lille · Eberechi Eze (assist Bukayo Saka)
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Arsenal 3–0 Lille · Bukayo Saka (assist Kai Havertz)
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lille · On: Maurits Kjaergaard · Off: Ngal'ayel Mukau Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Lille · On: Maurits Kjaergaard · Off: Ngal'ayel Mukau Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Lille · On: Osame Sahraoui · Off: Nabil Bentaleb Corrected
77′Bukayo Saka scores for Arsenal on 71′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Arsenal win: 69% at kick-off, 100% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lille · On: Calvin Verdonk · Off: Romain Perraud Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lille · On: Olivier Giroud · Off: Ayase Ueda Corrected
78′We published Arsenal at 69%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Arsenal · On: Ben White · Off: Jurriën Timber Corrected
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Maxima Goffi · Lille
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Lille · On: Soriba Diaoune · Off: Dilane Bakwa Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Arsenal · On: Max Dowman · Off: Eberechi Eze Corrected
FTFULL TIME Arsenal 3–0 Lille
FTArsenal 3–0 Lille · Arsenal win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Arsenal win69%

Draw21%

Lille win10%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 20:00

VenueEmirates Stadium

RefereeFelix Zwayer

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-2-3-1

Lille

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Arsenal

Lille

34Days since last match35

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
41	Arsenal	1	+1	3
66	Lille	1	−1	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Atlético Madrid v Manchester United: Champions League – liveThe Guardian · 37 min ago · Atletico Madrid, Manchester United, Arsenal, Lille

Arsenal XI vs Lille: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Champions League todayEvening Standard · 41 min ago · Arsenal, Lille

Arsenal v Lille: Champions League – liveThe Guardian · 1 hour ago · Arsenal, Lille, Manchester United

Arsenal vs Lille LIVE: Champions League match stream, latest team news, lineups, TV, predictionEvening Standard · 1 hour ago · Arsenal, Lille, Emirates Club

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-2-3-1

1 D. Raya

12 J. Timber

15 E. Konsa

6 Gabriel

49 M. Lewis-Skelly

41 D. Rice

39 Bruno Guimaraes

20 N. Madueke

23 M. Merino

10 E. Eze

14 V. Gyokeres

Coach · Mikel Arteta

Substitutes

13 · K. Arrizabalaga

30 · I. Meslier

4 · B. White

3 · C. Mosquera

89 · M. Salmon

33 · R. Calafiori

8 · M. Odegaard

56 · M. Dowman

74 · M. Hashi

29 · K. Havertz

7 · B. Saka

53 · C. O'Neill

Lille

4-3-3

1 B. Ozer

38 A. Goffi

3 N. Ngoy

4 Alexsandro

15 R. Perraud

17 N. Mukau

6 N. Bentaleb

21 B. Andre

7 D. Bakwa

18 A. Ueda

10 H. Haraldsson

Coach · Davide Ancelotti

Substitutes

12 · O. Gill

50 · T. Sajous

23 · T. Nianzou

26 · I. Cossier

24 · C. Verdonk

2 · L. Srdanovic

14 · M. Kjaergaard

9 · O. Giroud

11 · O. Sahraoui

19 · B. Onal

35 · S. Diaoune

28 · G. Perrin

Our number · arsenal winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

69% The market80%

Us69%

~~Market~~80%

We make Arsenal a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 80%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · arsenal win The market, margin stripped

Published at 70%, 69% now. The market has gone from 75% to 80% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal win	69%	80%	−11
Draw	21%	14%	+7
Lille win	10%	7%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	45%	63%	−18
Both teams to score	37%	44%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	71%	82%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	24%	43%	−19
Arsenal or draw	90%	93%	−3
Arsenal clean sheet	57%	–	–
Lille clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.8%

0123450 8.7 4.5 1 15.8 9.4 2.6 2 15.4 8.7 2.4 3 9.8 5.5 4 4.7 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal down, Lille across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Arsenal play in the Premier League, Lille in the Ligue 1.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Arsenal are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Arsenal, 0.56 for Lille. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 19:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in UEFA Champions League since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in UEFA Champions League

ARSENAL

WDDWDW1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

LILLE

WLWDLL3–2 · 1–2 · 6–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sabah FA	9	+5	18
2	Fenerbahçe	7	+5	15
3	Levski Sofia	8	+3	15
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	+4	12
5	Slovan Bratislava	7	0	12
6	Dinamo Zagreb	6	+4	9
7	Ararat-Armenia	6	+1	9
8	Kairat Almaty	6	+1	9
9	Bodo/Glimt	5	0	8
10	Kauno Žalgiris	6	−4	8
11	AEK Athens FC	3	+5	7
12	Universitatea Craiova	4	+3	7
13	Celje	6	+1	7
14	KI Klaksvik	4	+1	7
15	Vikingur Reykjavik	4	0	7
16	FK Crvena Zvezda	4	+6	6
17	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	4	+5	6
18	Sturm Graz	4	+3	6
19	Shamrock Rovers	4	+1	6
20	Aarhus	4	−3	6
21	Larne	4	−7	6
22	FC Iberia 1999	4	−1	5
23	Lincoln Red Imps FC	4	−1	5
24	Lyon	4	+1	4
25	Viking	3	0	4
26	Mjallby AIF	4	0	4
27	Paris Saint Germain	1	+5	3
28	Bayern München	1	+5	3
29	Barcelona	1	+4	3
30	Manchester United	1	+4	3
31	Como	1	+3	3
32	Sporting CP	1	+2	3
33	VfB Stuttgart	1	+2	3
34	Manchester City	1	+2	3
35	Aston Villa	1	+1	3
36	Borussia Dortmund	1	+1	3
37	Lens	1	+1	3
38	Real Betis	1	+1	3
39	Liverpool	1	+1	3
40	Real Madrid	1	+1	3
41	Arsenal	1	+1	3
42	Celtic	2	0	3
43	Lech Poznan	2	0	3
44	Vardar Skopje	2	0	3
45	Omonia Nicosia	2	0	3
46	Lask Linz	3	−1	3
47	Riga	2	−1	3
48	Floriana	2	−2	3
49	Sparta Praha	2	−2	3
50	KuPS	4	−3	3
51	Union St. Gilloise	2	0	2
52	FC Thun	2	0	2
53	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	0	2
54	NEC Nijmegen	4	−5	2
55	AS Roma	1	0	1
56	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1
57	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1
58	Flora Tallinn	2	−1	1
59	Drita	2	−1	1
60	Gyori ETO FC	2	−1	1
61	Gornik Zabrze	2	−1	1
62	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	−2	1
63	Borac Banja Luka	2	−4	1
64	Petrocub	2	−5	1
65	Club Brugge KV	1	−1	0
66	Lille	1	−1	0
67	Slavia Praha	1	−1	0
68	Villarreal	1	−1	0
69	Atletico Madrid	1	−1	0
70	Inter	1	−1	0
71	Napoli	1	−1	0
72	Atert Bissen	2	−2	0
73	Galatasaray	1	−2	0
74	Tre Fiori	2	−2	0
75	FC Porto	1	−2	0
76	RB Leipzig	1	−3	0
77	Sutjeska	2	−3	0
78	The New Saints	2	−3	0
79	Feyenoord	1	−4	0
80	ML Vitebsk	2	−4	0
81	Heart Of Midlothian	2	−6	0