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Zambia W v Uganda W

Zambia W
4–1Full time
Uganda W

Olympics Women - Qualification CAF · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:32
Zambia W 4–1 Uganda W ZAMBIA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Zambia W win47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.431

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Zambia W win at 47%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Zambia W was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–21–33
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Zambia W v Uganda W
  4. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Zambia W 1–0 Uganda W
  5. 12′N. Nanyangwe scores for Zambia W on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–17–16
  6. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Zambia W win: 47% at kick-off, 67% now
  7. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Zambia W 1–1 Uganda W
  8. 17′14′ and it is 1–1: S. Kabene on the scoresheet for Uganda W. 1–1 · 44–24–33
  9. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Zambia W win: 47% at kick-off, 44% now
  10. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Zambia W 2–1 Uganda W
  11. 22′Zambia W find the net on 21′. 2–1. 2–1 · 68–18–14
  12. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Zambia W win: 47% at kick-off, 68% now
  13. 26′Zambia W ahead on 20′ through E. Phiri. 2–1. 2–1 · 68–18–14
  14. 31′We published Zambia W at 47%. Our model now makes it 68%. 2–1 · 68–19–13
  15. 44′We published Zambia W at 47%. Our model now makes it 70%. 2–1 · 70–20–10
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Zambia W 2–1 Uganda W
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Zambia W 2–1 Uganda W
  18. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Zambia W 3–1 Uganda W
  19. 60′B. Banda scores for Zambia W on 50′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 93–5–1
  20. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Zambia W win: 47% at kick-off, 93% now
  21. 63′We published Zambia W at 47%. Our model now makes it 94%. 3–1 · 94–5–1
  22. 67′We published Zambia W at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
  23. 70′4 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 96–3–0
  24. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Zambia W win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  25. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Zambia W 4–1 Uganda W
  26. 86′85′ and it is 4–1: Zambia W have scored. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  27. 88′We published Zambia W at 47%. Our model now makes it 100%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  28. 90′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.9 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  29. FTFULL TIME Zambia W 4–1 Uganda W
  30. FTZambia W 4–1 Uganda W · Zambia W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

Zambia W win47%
Draw18%
Uganda W win35%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Zambia W

Uganda W

5Days since last match5
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2028

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Uganda W1+13
20Zambia W1−10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zambia w winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off
47% The market–
Us47%

We make Zambia W a 47% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.8, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 10 OCT 04:0212 OCT 04:08
Our probability · zambia w win

Published at 51%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Zambia W win47%––
Draw18%––
Uganda W win35%––
Over 2.5 goals74%––
Both teams to score71%––
Over 1.5 goals88%––
Over 3.5 goals54%––
Zambia W or draw65%––
Zambia W clean sheet17%––
Uganda W clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%
0123450 5.1 3.3 1 5.7 6.5 6.9 4.1 2 4.6 8.1 7.2 4.3 3 3.2 5.7 5.0 3.0 4 3.0 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Zambia W down, Uganda W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsUGA 2–1 ZAM · ZAM 0–5 UGA

Form · last six in Olympics Women - Qualification CAF

ZAMBIA W

DLWLWL1–1 · 0–1 · 6–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

UGANDA W

LWWLLW0–3 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2028
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Comoros W3+286
2Kenya W2+226
3Mauritius W3−16
4Angola W2+24
5Madagascar W3−34
6Algeria W1+83
7South Africa W1+43
8Ivory Coast W1+33
9Ghana W1+33
10Benin W1+23
11Burkina Faso W1+23
12Malawi W1+23
13Nigeria W1+23
14Uganda W1+13
15Ethiopia W1+13
16Senegal W1+13
17Tanzania W1+13
18South Sudan W2−11
19Namibia W2−21
20Zambia W1−10
21Botswana W1−10
22Rwanda W1−10
23Tunisia W1−10
24Djibouti W2−20
25Equatorial Guinea W1−20
26Mali W1−20
27Zimbabwe W1−20
28Congo DR W1−30
29Central Africa W1−80
30Seychelles W2−220
31Sudan W2−300

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.