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Mali W v Benin W

Mali W
6–2Full time
Benin W

Olympics Women - Qualification CAF · TUE 13 OCT

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:46
Mali W 6–2 Benin W MALI W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Mali W win62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.215

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Mali W win at 62%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Mali W was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–20–20
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Mali W v Benin W
  4. 25′⚽ GOAL · 26' Mali W 1–0 Benin W
  5. 29′Mali W find the net on 26′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
  6. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Mali W win: 62% at kick-off, 80% now
  7. 32′We published Mali W at 62%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–6
  8. 36′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–6
  9. 45′We published Mali W at 62%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Mali W 2–0 Benin W
  11. 50′A goal for Mali W on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
  12. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Mali W 2–0 Benin W
  13. 50′⚽ GOAL · 51' Mali W 2–0 Benin W
  14. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Mali W win: 62% at kick-off, 96% now
  15. 51′52′ and it is 2–0: Mali W have scored. 2–0 · 96–4–1
  16. 51′⚽ GOAL · 52' Mali W 2–0 Benin W
  17. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Mali W 3–0 Benin W
  18. 57′We published Mali W at 62%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 66′Benin W find the net on 67′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  20. 66′⚽ GOAL · 67' Mali W 3–0 Benin W
  21. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Mali W 3–1 Benin W
  22. 67′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  23. 74′A goal for Benin W on 75′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  24. 74′⚽ GOAL · 75' Mali W 3–1 Benin W
  25. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Mali W 3–2 Benin W
  26. 77′We published Mali W at 62%. Our model now makes it 88%. 3–2 · 88–11–1
  27. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Mali W win: 62% at kick-off, 88% now
  28. 78′79′ and it is 4–2: Mali W have scored. 4–2 · 99–1–0
  29. 78′⚽ GOAL · 79' Mali W 3–2 Benin W
  30. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Mali W 4–2 Benin W
  31. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Mali W win: 62% at kick-off, 99% now
  32. 80′Mali W find the net on 81′. 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
  33. 80′⚽ GOAL · 81' Mali W 4–2 Benin W
  34. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Mali W 5–2 Benin W
  35. 82′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  36. 85′8 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 6–2 · 100–0–0
  37. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Mali W 6–2 Benin W
  38. 85′⚽ GOAL · 86' Mali W 6–2 Benin W
  39. 87′A goal for Mali W on 86′ — 6–2. 6–2 · 100–0–0
  40. 90′Full time, 6–2. We called Mali W at 62% — that one lands. 6–2 · 100–0–0
  41. FTFULL TIME Mali W 6–2 Benin W
  42. FTMali W 6–2 Benin W · Mali W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off

Mali W win62%
Draw17%
Benin W win21%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mali W

Benin W

5Days since last match5
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2028

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Benin W1+23
26Mali W1−20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mali w winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 17:30 · locked at kick-off
62% The market–
Us62%

We make Mali W a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65%70% 10 OCT 04:0213 OCT 05:55
Our probability · mali w win

Published at 67%, 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Mali W win62%––
Draw17%––
Benin W win21%––
Over 2.5 goals66%––
Both teams to score61%––
Over 1.5 goals84%––
Over 3.5 goals45%––
Mali W or draw79%––
Mali W clean sheet30%––
Benin W clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.7%
0123450 5.4 2.3 1 8.8 7.2 5.2 2.1 2 8.1 9.7 5.8 2.3 3 6.0 7.2 4.3 4 3.3 4.0 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Mali W down, Benin W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsBEN 3–1 MAL

Form · last six in Olympics Women - Qualification CAF

MALI W

DLLWDL2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–3

BENIN W

WLWLLW2–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 3–1

The table

2028
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Comoros W3+286
2Kenya W2+226
3Mauritius W3−16
4Angola W2+24
5Madagascar W3−34
6Algeria W1+83
7South Africa W1+43
8Ivory Coast W1+33
9Ghana W1+33
10Benin W1+23
11Burkina Faso W1+23
12Malawi W1+23
13Nigeria W1+23
14Uganda W1+13
15Ethiopia W1+13
16Senegal W1+13
17Tanzania W1+13
18South Sudan W2−11
19Namibia W2−21
20Zambia W1−10
21Botswana W1−10
22Rwanda W1−10
23Tunisia W1−10
24Djibouti W2−20
25Equatorial Guinea W1−20
26Mali W1−20
27Zimbabwe W1−20
28Congo DR W1−30
29Central Africa W1−80
30Seychelles W2−220
31Sudan W2−300

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.