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USA W v Spain W

USA W
2–2Full time
Spain W

Friendlies Women · WED 14 OCT · Subaru Park

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 02:30
USA W 2–2 Spain W USA W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said USA W win50%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.027
The market’s Brier score0.822

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 33 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said USA W win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: USA W 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–21–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF USA W v Spain W
  4. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' USA W 0–1 Spain W
  5. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' USA W 0–2 Spain W
  6. 41′32′ and it is 0–2: S. Paralluelo on the scoresheet for Spain W. 0–2 · 6–12–82
  7. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' USA W win: 50% at kick-off, 6% now
  8. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Spain W win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was USA W win 6%)
  9. 45′SECOND HALF USA W 0–2 Spain W
  10. 46′We said USA W at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–11–84
  11. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spain W · On: O. Batlle · Off: O. Hernandez
  12. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spain W · On: L. Corrales · Off: S. Paralluelo
  13. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spain W · On: A. Redondo · Off: E. Imade
  14. 49′USA W pull one back on 49′ through A. Sanchez. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–11–85
  15. 51′⚽ GOAL · 49' USA W 1–2 Spain W · A. Sanchez (assist S. Wilson)
  16. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spain W · On: O. Batlle · Off: O. Hernandez
  17. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spain W · On: L. Corrales · Off: S. Paralluelo
  18. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spain W · On: A. Redondo · Off: E. Imade
  19. 60′We said USA W at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–24–65
  20. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' USA W · On: M. Cooper · Off: T. Rodman
  21. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' USA W · On: A. Thompson · Off: G. Thompson
  22. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' USA W · On: L. Yohannes · Off: L. Heaps
  23. 62′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 1–2 · 10–24–66
  24. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' USA W · On: M. Swanson · Off: R. Lavelle
  25. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Spain W · On: F. Iannuzzi · Off: A. Putellas
  26. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' USA W · On: J. M. Howell · Off: C. Hutton
  27. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Spain W · On: L. Garcia · Off: C. Pinedo
  28. 74′We said USA W at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
  29. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Spain W · On: L. Codina · Off: I. Paredes
  30. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Spain W · On: O. Vignola · Off: A. Medina
  31. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Spain W · On: N. Ramos · Off: C. Serrajordi
  32. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' USA W · On: K. Del Fava · Off: T. Davidson
  33. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' USA W · On: E. Sears · Off: S. Wilson
  34. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' USA W · On: P. Tordin · Off: A. Sanchez
  35. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 81' N. Ramos · Spain W
  36. 86′M. Swanson scores for USA W on 86′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 10–82–8
  37. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' USA W 2–2 Spain W · M. Swanson
  38. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Spain W win 8%)
  39. 90′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 7–88–5
  40. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Spain W
  41. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 80' N. Ramos · Spain W
  42. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 95' O. Vignola · Spain W
  43. FTFULL TIME USA W 2–2 Spain W
  44. FTUSA W 2–2 Spain W · USA W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on USA W v Spain WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 23:19 · locked at kick-off

USA W win50%
Draw18%
Spain W win32%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 00:00

VenueSubaru Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

USA W

Spain W

3Days since last match3
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
16USA W7+912
135Spain W1+23

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usa w winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 23:19 · locked at kick-off
50% The market32%
Us50%
Market32%

We make USA W a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60% 9 OCT 06:2313 OCT 21:33
Our probability · usa w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
USA W win50%32%+18
Draw18%26%−8
Spain W win32%42%−10
Over 2.5 goals73%57%+17
Both teams to score70%60%+10
Over 1.5 goals88%79%+9
Over 3.5 goals53%35%+18
USA W or draw68%58%+10
USA W clean sheet19%––
Spain W clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%
0123450 5.0 3.1 1 6.1 6.5 6.6 3.7 2 5.1 8.5 7.1 3.9 3 3.6 6.1 5.1 2.8 4 3.3 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+USA W down, Spain W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2019
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsUSA 0–2 SPA · SPA 2–0 USA · SPA 1–2 USA

Form · last six in Friendlies Women

USA W

WWLLWL5–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2

SPAIN W

WLWWWW3–1 · 0–1 · 5–0 · 4–0 · 6–1 · 2–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Morocco W11+2125
2Ivory Coast W9+2922
3Saudi Arabia W10+1922
4Russia W8+1419
5India W12−219
6Brazil W9+1318
7England U20 W9+1517
8United States W U179+1417
9Sweden U23 W8+717
10Germany U23 W8+617
11USA U19 W7+1016
12Russia U19 W7+814
13Papua New Guinea W5+1313
14Ghana W5+1313
15USA U18 W4+2612
16USA W7+912
17Japan U175+712
18Nigeria W5+612
19Germany U19 W6+512
20United States U20 W6+711
21Norway U23 W7+411
22Egypt W8−111
23Uzbekistan U20 W10−311
24Sweden U18 W7−511
25Canada W6+1010
26Thailand W4+710
27El Salvador W5+510
28Italy U23 W5+310
29England U23 W5+310
30Algeria W6+210
31Bangladesh U19 W4+149
32Spain U20 W3+129
33India U17 W4+119
34China W5+89
35Japan W5+89
36Australia W5+69
37Netherlands U23 W7+49
38Chile W4+49
39Austria U19 W4+39
40South Africa W4−19
41Botswana W4+68
42Vanuatu W5+48
43Scotland U19 W4+38
44Tunisia W4+28
45Morocco U20 W4+67
46Canada U20 W4+47
47Kenya W6+37
48Iran U20 W3+27
49Scotland U17 W4+27
50Jamaica W3+27
51Uzbekistan W6+17
52Brazil U20 W507
53Portugal U20 W5−17
54Solomon Islands W4−27
55Senegal W6−37
56Portugal U23 W6−47
57France U23 W7−57
58Ethiopia W2+266
59Romania U19 W2+126
60Georgia U19 W2+86
61Montenegro U19 W2+66
62Denmark U19 W3+56
63Norway U19 W3+56
64Bermuda W2+56
65Kyrgyz Republic W4+46
66Chile U20 W2+46
67Cook Islands W2+46
68Austria U17 W2+36
69Czech Republic U17 W3+26
70Finland U23 W4+26
71Finland U18 W2+26
72Italy U17 W4+16
73Jordan W3+16
74Thailand U20 W3+16
75Cameroon W3+16
76Portugal U17 W3+16
77Mauritania W3−16
78Haiti W3−16
79Hong Kong W3−16
80Mexico W4−16
81Benin W7−36
82Malta U19 W4−56
83Zambia W7−76
84Fiji W7−76
85Mexico U20 W6−86
86Mexico U23 W3+35
87Poland U19 W3+35
88Portugal U19 W3+25
89USA U23 W3+15
90England U17 W405
91Morocco U17 W4−45
92Indonesia W5−65
93Tanzania W6−65
94Cambodia W2+54
95Faroe Islands W3+44
96Vietnam U20 W2+44
97Switzerland U19 W2+24
98Bosnia & Herzegovina U19 W2+24
99Turkey U18 W2+24
100Denmark W2+14
101Turkey U19 W3+14
102Finland U17 W2+14
103Uruguay W2+14
104Argentina U17 W2+14
105France U19 W2+14
106Japan U20 W2+14
107Latvia U19 W2+14
108Palestine W3+14
109Armenia W2+14
110Nigeria U20 W2+14
111Colombia U20 W2+14
112Norway U17 W2+14
113Canada W U17304
114Venezuela W304
115Greece U19 W304
116Moldova W304
117Croatia U19 W3−14
118Portugal U18 W4−14
119Serbia U19 W4−24
120Finland U19 W4−34
121Slovenia U19 W4−34
122Uruguay U20 W4−34
123Burkina Faso W6−64
124France W1+93
125Bhutan W1+73
126Pakistan W3+53
127Congo DR W2+43
128Liechtenstein W1+33
129Czechia U23 W3+23
130Germany W1+23
131Spain U19 W1+23
132Bangladesh U20 W1+23
133Metalist 1925 W1+23
134Netherlands U17 W1+23
135Spain W1+23
136France U20 W1+13
137Montenegro W1+13
138Morocco U23 W1+13
139Poland U20 W2+13
140Colombia W1+13
141Csikszereda MC W1+13
142Malta W1+13
143San Diego Wave W1+13
144Iceland U19 W203
145Kyrgyzstan W303
146Philippines W303
147Georgia W203
148Mali W4−13
149Zimbabwe W2−13
150Denmark U23 W4−23
151Denmark U17 W2−23
152Azerbaijan U19 W2−33
153Poland U17 W4−33
154Estonia W2−33
155Singapore W2−33
156Paraguay W4−43
157Andorra W2−43
158Jordan U20 W4−43
159Nepal U19 W3−43
160Peru W3−43
161Sweden U19 W3−43
162Italy U19 W5−53
163Netherlands U19 W4−63
164Wales U19 W5−83
165Vietnam W5−133
166Germany U17 W3−12
167Belgium U19 W4−22
168Mexico U17 W4−22
169Switzerland U17 W5−72
170América W101
171Cyprus W101
172Greece W101
173Italy U20 W101
174Kosovo U19 W101
175Lebanon W101
176North Macedonia U19 W101
177Puerto Rico W U17101
178Slovakia U19 W101
179Spartak Moskva W101
180Tajikistan W101
181UAE W101
182Benin U20 W2−11
183Ecuador W2−11
184Hungary U17 W2−11
185Estonia U19 W2−11
186South Africa U17 W2−11
187Ecuador U20 W2−11
188Myanmar W2−11
189New Zealand W2−11
190Panama W2−11
191Republic of Ireland U19 W2−21
192Uzbekistan U18 W2−21
193Belarus U19 W2−31
194Namibia W2−31
195South Korea W3−61
196Czech Republic U19 W4−61
197Korea Republic U20 W4−61
198Belgium U23 W6−71
199Costa Rica W3−91
200Scotland U23 W5−101
201Cape Verde W4−111
202Malawi W6−121
203Hungary U19 W4−121
204Ukraine U19 W3−121
205Bosnia-Herzegovina W1−10
206American Samoa W1−10
207Belgium U17 W1−10
208Ghana U20 W1−10
209Schlieren W1−10
210Hertha Berlin W1−10
211Luxembourg W1−10
212Norway U18 W2−20
213Argentina W1−20
214Equatorial Guinea W1−20
215Albion San Diego W1−20
216France U17 W1−20
217Zvezda Perm W1−20
218Comoros W2−30
219Dominican Republic W1−30
220Gibraltar W1−30
221Argentina U20 W2−40
222Guatemala W1−40
223Romania U23 W1−40
224Afghanistan W2−40
225Chile U17 W2−40
226Sri Lanka W1−40
227Malaysia W3−50
228Perth Azzurri W1−50
229Costa Rica U20 W2−50
230Belize W2−50
231Perth RedStar W1−50
232Cyprus U19 W2−60
233Bolivia W1−70
234Macau W1−70
235Wales U17 W2−70
236Laos W2−80
237Lesotho W2−80
238Armenia U19 W2−80
239Latvia W1−90
240Tajikistan U20 W3−100
241New Caledonia U20 W1−110
242Bahrain W3−120
243Saudi Arabia U20 W4−120
244New Caledonia W6−160
245Bhutan U19 W3−210
246Seychelles W2−260
247Turks and Caicos Islands W3−280

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.