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USA W v Spain W

USA W

0–2Full time

Spain W

Friendlies Women · SAT 10 OCT · Audi Field

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:01

USA W 0–2 Spain W USA W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said USA W win~~57%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.889

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.459

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said USA W win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: USA W was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–19–25
11′Spain W ahead on 3′ through P. Guijarro. 0–1. 0–1 · 32–21–46
22′E. Navarro scores for Spain W on 14′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 13–16–71
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' USA W win: 57% at kick-off, 32% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Spain W win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was USA W win 32%)
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' USA W win: 57% at kick-off, 32% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Spain W win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was USA W win 32%)
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' USA W win: 57% at kick-off, 32% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Spain W win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was USA W win 32%)
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' USA W win: 57% at kick-off, 32% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Spain W win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was USA W win 32%)
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' USA W win: 57% at kick-off, 32% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Spain W win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was USA W win 32%)
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' USA W win: 57% at kick-off, 32% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Spain W win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was USA W win 32%)
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' USA W win: 57% at kick-off, 32% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Spain W win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was USA W win 32%)
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Spain W · On: C. Pinedo · Off: E. Imade
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Spain W · On: A. Medina · Off: L. Corrales
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Spain W · On: N. Ramos · Off: A. Putellas
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' USA W · On: C. Hutton · Off: L. Heaps
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' USA W · On: A. Sanchez · Off: A. Thompson
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' USA W · On: C. Hutton · Off: L. Heaps
71′PENALTY MISSED · 70' USA W
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' USA W
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Spain W · On: O. Vignola · Off: F. Iannuzzi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Spain W · On: A. Marin Martin · Off: E. Navarro
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' USA W · On: M. Cooper · Off: E. Fox
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Spain W · On: A. del Castillo · Off: S. Paralluelo
90′🟥 RED CARD · 91' Spain W
FTFULL TIME USA W 0–2 Spain W
FTUSA W 0–2 Spain W · USA W win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

USA W win57%

Draw17%

Spain W win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:30

Venue · Audi Field

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

USA W

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Dickey

23 E. Fox

25 K. Wesley

12 T. Davidson

3 A. Patterson

6 L. Yohannes

21 A. Thompson

16 R. Lavelle

10 L. Heaps

2 T. Rodman

11 S. Wilson

Coach · Emma Hayes

Substitutes

24 · P. Tullis-Joyce

4 · K. Del Fava

22 · G. Thompson

5 · T. Rudd

8 · L. Reale

17 · J. M. Howell

7 · A. Sanchez

15 · C. Hutton

20 · M. Cooper

9 · M. Swanson

13 · P. Tordin

19 · E. Sears

Spain W

Formation not confirmed

23 A. Nanclares

2 O. Batlle

5 M. Mendez

15 L. Codina

17 L. Corrales

12 P. Guijarro

21 F. Iannuzzi

11 A. Putellas

19 E. Navarro

24 E. Imade

7 S. Paralluelo

Coach · Sonia Bermudez

Substitutes

1 · Misa

13 · E. Astralaga

3 · O. Hernandez

6 · A. Medina

20 · C. Pinedo

8 · N. Ramos

22 · C. Serrajordi

14 · A. Redondo

25 · A. Marin Martin

18 · O. Vignola

10 · A. del Castillo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

USA W

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Dickey

23 E. Fox

25 K. Wesley

12 T. Davidson

3 A. Patterson

6 L. Yohannes

21 A. Thompson

16 R. Lavelle

10 L. Heaps

2 T. Rodman

11 S. Wilson

Coach · Emma Hayes

Substitutes

24 · P. Tullis-Joyce

4 · K. Del Fava

22 · G. Thompson

5 · T. Rudd

8 · L. Reale

17 · J. M. Howell

7 · A. Sanchez

15 · C. Hutton

20 · M. Cooper

9 · M. Swanson

13 · P. Tordin

19 · E. Sears

Spain W

Formation not confirmed

23 A. Nanclares

2 O. Batlle

5 M. Mendez

15 L. Codina

17 L. Corrales

12 P. Guijarro

21 F. Iannuzzi

11 A. Putellas

19 E. Navarro

24 E. Imade

7 S. Paralluelo

Coach · Sonia Bermudez

Substitutes

1 · Misa

13 · E. Astralaga

3 · O. Hernandez

6 · A. Medina

20 · C. Pinedo

8 · N. Ramos

22 · C. Serrajordi

14 · A. Redondo

25 · A. Marin Martin

18 · O. Vignola

10 · A. del Castillo

Our number · usa w winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

57% The market28%

Us57%

~~Market~~28%

We make USA W a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 29 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · usa w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
USA W win	57%	28%	+29
Draw	17%	27%	−11
Spain W win	27%	45%	−18
Over 2.5 goals	77%	51%	+26
Both teams to score	72%	55%	+17
Over 1.5 goals	90%	74%	+16
Over 3.5 goals	57%	30%	+28
USA W or draw	73%	55%	+18
USA W clean sheet	20%	–	–
Spain W clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 4.1 2.3 1 5.5 5.7 5.6 3.0 2 5.2 8.4 6.8 3.6 3 4.2 6.7 5.4 2.9 4 2.5 4.1 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+USA W down, Spain W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2019

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPA 2–0 USA · SPA 1–2 USA

Form · last six in Friendlies Women

USA W

WWWLLW6–0 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

SPAIN W

WWLWWW3–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 5–0 · 4–0 · 6–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast W	9	+29	22
2	Saudi Arabia W	10	+19	22
3	Morocco W	9	+19	21
4	India W	11	+6	19
5	England U20 W	9	+15	17
6	United States W U17	9	+14	17
7	USA U19 W	7	+10	16
8	Russia W	7	+6	16
9	Brazil W	8	+11	15
10	Papua New Guinea W	5	+13	13
11	Ghana W	5	+13	13
12	Sweden U23 W	6	+6	13
13	Germany U23 W	6	+4	13
14	USA U18 W	4	+26	12
15	USA W	6	+11	12
16	Japan U17	5	+7	12
17	Nigeria W	5	+6	12
18	United States U20 W	6	+7	11
19	Egypt W	8	−1	11
20	Uzbekistan U20 W	10	−3	11
21	Canada W	5	+11	10
22	El Salvador W	4	+9	10
23	Thailand W	4	+7	10
24	Russia U19 W	5	+5	10
25	England U23 W	4	+5	10
26	Algeria W	6	+2	10
27	Sweden U18 W	6	−5	10
28	Bangladesh U19 W	4	+14	9
29	Spain U20 W	3	+12	9
30	India U17 W	4	+11	9
31	China W	5	+8	9
32	Australia W	5	+6	9
33	Italy U23 W	4	+3	9
34	South Africa W	4	−1	9
35	Botswana W	4	+6	8
36	Vanuatu W	5	+4	8
37	Tunisia W	4	+2	8
38	Morocco U20 W	4	+6	7
39	Canada U20 W	4	+4	7
40	Kenya W	6	+3	7
41	Iran U20 W	3	+2	7
42	Scotland U17 W	4	+2	7
43	Brazil U20 W	5	0	7
44	Portugal U20 W	5	−1	7
45	Solomon Islands W	4	−2	7
46	Senegal W	6	−3	7
47	Ethiopia W	2	+26	6
48	Romania U19 W	2	+12	6
49	Georgia U19 W	2	+8	6
50	Montenegro U19 W	2	+6	6
51	Denmark U19 W	3	+5	6
52	Bermuda W	2	+5	6
53	Kyrgyz Republic W	4	+4	6
54	Japan W	4	+4	6
55	Austria U19 W	2	+4	6
56	Chile U20 W	2	+4	6
57	Cook Islands W	2	+4	6
58	Uzbekistan W	4	+3	6
59	Finland U23 W	3	+3	6
60	Austria U17 W	2	+3	6
61	Haiti W	2	+3	6
62	Czech Republic U17 W	3	+2	6
63	Finland U18 W	2	+2	6
64	Netherlands U23 W	6	+1	6
65	Italy U17 W	4	+1	6
66	Jordan W	3	+1	6
67	Thailand U20 W	3	+1	6
68	Cameroon W	3	+1	6
69	Portugal U17 W	3	+1	6
70	Mexico W	3	0	6
71	Mauritania W	3	−1	6
72	Hong Kong W	3	−1	6
73	Portugal U23 W	4	−1	6
74	Germany U19 W	4	−1	6
75	Benin W	7	−3	6
76	Chile W	3	−3	6
77	Malta U19 W	4	−5	6
78	France U23 W	6	−5	6
79	Zambia W	7	−7	6
80	Fiji W	7	−7	6
81	Mexico U20 W	6	−8	6
82	Mexico U23 W	3	+3	5
83	Portugal U19 W	3	+2	5
84	USA U23 W	3	+1	5
85	Scotland U19 W	3	+1	5
86	England U17 W	4	0	5
87	Norway U23 W	5	−1	5
88	Morocco U17 W	4	−4	5
89	Tanzania W	6	−6	5
90	Cambodia W	2	+5	4
91	Faroe Islands W	2	+5	4
92	Vietnam U20 W	2	+4	4
93	Switzerland U19 W	2	+2	4
94	Bosnia & Herzegovina U19 W	2	+2	4
95	Turkey U18 W	2	+2	4
96	Finland U17 W	2	+1	4
97	Uruguay W	2	+1	4
98	Venezuela W	2	+1	4
99	Argentina U17 W	2	+1	4
100	France U19 W	2	+1	4
101	Japan U20 W	2	+1	4
102	Moldova W	2	+1	4
103	Nigeria U20 W	2	+1	4
104	Serbia U19 W	2	+1	4
105	Colombia U20 W	2	+1	4
106	Jamaica W	2	+1	4
107	Norway U17 W	2	+1	4
108	Canada W U17	3	0	4
109	Portugal U18 W	4	−1	4
110	Uruguay U20 W	4	−3	4
111	Burkina Faso W	6	−6	4
112	Indonesia W	4	−6	4
113	Bhutan W	1	+7	3
114	Pakistan W	3	+5	3
115	Congo DR W	2	+4	3
116	Czechia U23 W	3	+2	3
117	Germany W	1	+2	3
118	Bangladesh U20 W	1	+2	3
119	Metalist 1925 W	1	+2	3
120	Netherlands U17 W	1	+2	3
121	Turkey U19 W	2	+1	3
122	France U20 W	1	+1	3
123	Montenegro W	1	+1	3
124	Morocco U23 W	1	+1	3
125	Norway U19 W	2	+1	3
126	Armenia W	1	+1	3
127	Palestine W	2	+1	3
128	Poland U20 W	2	+1	3
129	Csikszereda MC W	1	+1	3
130	Malta W	1	+1	3
131	San Diego Wave W	1	+1	3
132	Iceland U19 W	2	0	3
133	Kyrgyzstan W	3	0	3
134	Philippines W	3	0	3
135	Mali W	4	−1	3
136	Zimbabwe W	2	−1	3
137	Italy U19 W	4	−1	3
138	Denmark U23 W	4	−2	3
139	Denmark U17 W	2	−2	3
140	Sweden U19 W	2	−2	3
141	Azerbaijan U19 W	2	−3	3
142	Poland U17 W	4	−3	3
143	Estonia W	2	−3	3
144	Finland U19 W	3	−3	3
145	Singapore W	2	−3	3
146	Nepal U19 W	3	−4	3
147	Peru W	3	−4	3
148	Netherlands U19 W	3	−5	3
149	Wales U19 W	4	−7	3
150	Vietnam W	5	−13	3
151	Poland U19 W	2	0	2
152	Germany U17 W	3	−1	2
153	Mexico U17 W	4	−2	2
154	Switzerland U17 W	5	−7	2
155	América W	1	0	1
156	Cyprus W	1	0	1
157	Denmark W	1	0	1
158	Greece W	1	0	1
159	Italy U20 W	1	0	1
160	Croatia U19 W	1	0	1
161	Spartak Moskva W	1	0	1
162	Tajikistan W	1	0	1
163	UAE W	1	0	1
164	Benin U20 W	2	−1	1
165	Ecuador W	2	−1	1
166	Hungary U17 W	2	−1	1
167	South Africa U17 W	2	−1	1
168	Ecuador U20 W	2	−1	1
169	Greece U19 W	2	−1	1
170	Myanmar W	2	−1	1
171	New Zealand W	2	−1	1
172	Panama W	2	−1	1
173	Belgium U19 W	3	−2	1
174	Republic of Ireland U19 W	2	−2	1
175	Slovenia U19 W	2	−2	1
176	Uzbekistan U18 W	2	−2	1
177	Namibia W	2	−3	1
178	Scotland U23 W	3	−5	1
179	South Korea W	3	−6	1
180	Czech Republic U19 W	4	−6	1
181	Korea Republic U20 W	4	−6	1
182	Hungary U19 W	3	−8	1
183	Costa Rica W	3	−9	1
184	Cape Verde W	4	−11	1
185	Malawi W	6	−12	1
186	Ukraine U19 W	3	−12	1
187	Bosnia-Herzegovina W	1	−1	0
188	American Samoa W	1	−1	0
189	Belgium U17 W	1	−1	0
190	Ghana U20 W	1	−1	0
191	Schlieren W	1	−1	0
192	Georgia W	1	−1	0
193	Hertha Berlin W	1	−1	0
194	Luxembourg W	1	−1	0
195	Norway U18 W	2	−2	0
196	Equatorial Guinea W	1	−2	0
197	Albion San Diego W	1	−2	0
198	France U17 W	1	−2	0
199	Zvezda Perm W	1	−2	0
200	Comoros W	2	−3	0
201	Dominican Republic W	1	−3	0
202	Argentina U20 W	2	−4	0
203	Guatemala W	1	−4	0
204	Romania U23 W	1	−4	0
205	Afghanistan W	2	−4	0
206	Chile U17 W	2	−4	0
207	Sri Lanka W	1	−4	0
208	Malaysia W	3	−5	0
209	Perth Azzurri W	1	−5	0
210	Costa Rica U20 W	2	−5	0
211	Andorra W	1	−5	0
212	Belize W	2	−5	0
213	Perth RedStar W	1	−5	0
214	Cyprus U19 W	2	−6	0
215	Jordan U20 W	3	−6	0
216	Belgium U23 W	5	−7	0
217	Macau W	1	−7	0
218	Wales U17 W	2	−7	0
219	Laos W	2	−8	0
220	Lesotho W	2	−8	0
221	Armenia U19 W	2	−8	0
222	Paraguay W	3	−8	0
223	Tajikistan U20 W	3	−10	0
224	Saudi Arabia U20 W	3	−10	0
225	New Caledonia U20 W	1	−11	0
226	Bahrain W	3	−12	0
227	New Caledonia W	6	−16	0
228	Bhutan U19 W	3	−21	0
229	Seychelles W	2	−26	0
230	Turks and Caicos Islands W	3	−28	0