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Model 1.1
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Malta W v Luxembourg W

Malta W
1–0Full time
Luxembourg W

Friendlies Women · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30
Malta W 1–0 Luxembourg W MALTA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Malta W win45%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.466
The market’s Brier score0.307

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Malta W win at 45%.
  2. 28′22′ and it is 0–0: Luxembourg W have scored. 0–0 · 40–28–33
  3. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Malta W
  4. 40′Little has changed for our model: Malta W 45% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–31–31
  5. 45′SECOND HALF Malta W 0–0 Luxembourg W
  6. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Malta W
  7. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Luxembourg W
  8. 50′PENALTY MISSED · 22' Luxembourg W
  9. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Malta W
  10. 57′⚽ GOAL · 58' Malta W 0–0 Luxembourg W
  11. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Malta W 1–0 Luxembourg W
  12. 70′PENALTY MISSED · 72' Malta W
  13. FTFULL TIME Malta W 1–0 Luxembourg W
  14. FTMalta W 1–0 Luxembourg W · Malta W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Malta W win45%
Draw18%
Luxembourg W win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Malta W

Formation not confirmed

12 M. Cachia

2 A. Gatt

5 J. L. Dimech

20 N. Sciberras

14 S. Zammit

8 R. Cuschieri

3 V. Mifsud

7 Y. Carella

21 H. Bugeja

9 K. Willis

10 M. Farrugia

Coach · M. Tesse

Substitutes

1 · G. D'Antuono

23 · R. Constantino

4 · E. Lipman

6 · V. Rapa

11 · J. Flask

13 · L. Cefai

15 · F. Buttigieg

16 · J. Barbara

17 · B. Borg

18 · N. Celeste

19 · M. Debono

22 · S. Saliba

24 · E. Micallef

Luxembourg W

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Schlime

13 A. Barbosa Abreu

5 E. Kremer

7 J. Lourenco

21 A. Miny

9 C. Lavinas Teixeira

6 M. Estevez Garcia

10 L. Miller

16 L. Schmit

20 H. Dietrich

22 K. Dos Santos

Coach · D. Santos

Substitutes

23 · E. Goetz

– · L. Oberweis

2 · L. Freymann

3 · A. Faria dos Santos

– · V. Villegas

– · G. Fiorucci

8 · A. Feil

19 · R. Sousa Leite

17 · C. Jorge

– · R. Kirps

– · C. Barbosa

– · B. Serra

15 · L. Mateus

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Malta W

Formation not confirmed

12 M. Cachia

2 A. Gatt

5 J. L. Dimech

20 N. Sciberras

14 S. Zammit

8 R. Cuschieri

3 V. Mifsud

7 Y. Carella

21 H. Bugeja

9 K. Willis

10 M. Farrugia

Coach · M. Tesse

Substitutes

1 · G. D'Antuono

23 · R. Constantino

4 · E. Lipman

6 · V. Rapa

11 · J. Flask

13 · L. Cefai

15 · F. Buttigieg

16 · J. Barbara

17 · B. Borg

18 · N. Celeste

19 · M. Debono

22 · S. Saliba

24 · E. Micallef

Luxembourg W

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Schlime

13 A. Barbosa Abreu

5 E. Kremer

7 J. Lourenco

21 A. Miny

9 C. Lavinas Teixeira

6 M. Estevez Garcia

10 L. Miller

16 L. Schmit

20 H. Dietrich

22 K. Dos Santos

Coach · D. Santos

Substitutes

23 · E. Goetz

– · L. Oberweis

2 · L. Freymann

3 · A. Faria dos Santos

– · V. Villegas

– · G. Fiorucci

8 · A. Feil

19 · R. Sousa Leite

17 · C. Jorge

– · R. Kirps

– · C. Barbosa

– · B. Serra

15 · L. Mateus

Our number · malta w winPublished 9 Oct 18:04
45% The market55%
Us45%
Market55%

We make Malta W a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 9 OCT 06:239 OCT 07:27
Our probability · malta w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. The market has gone from 48% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Malta W win45%55%−9
Draw18%23%−5
Luxembourg W win37%22%+15
Over 2.5 goals68%59%+9
Both teams to score66%59%+7
Over 1.5 goals84%80%+4
Over 3.5 goals46%38%+8
Malta W or draw63%78%−15
Malta W clean sheet19%––
Luxembourg W clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%
0123450 7.1 4.1 2.2 1 7.7 7.1 7.6 4.2 2 5.2 8.5 7.0 3.9 3 3.2 5.3 4.3 2.4 4 2.4 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Malta W down, Luxembourg W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsMAL 3–1 LUX · MAL 2–1 LUX

Form · last six in Friendlies Women

MALTA W

LLLLLL0–3 · 1–4 · 0–4 · 2–4 · 1–6 · 0–3

LUXEMBOURG W

LLLLLL0–5 · 0–7 · 0–6 · 1–3 · 0–6 · 0–7

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ivory Coast W9+2922
2Morocco W9+1921
3Saudi Arabia W9+1719
4India W11+619
5England U20 W9+1517
6United States W U179+1417
7USA U19 W7+1016
8Russia W7+616
9Brazil W8+1115
10Papua New Guinea W5+1313
11Ghana W5+1313
12Sweden U23 W6+613
13Germany U23 W6+413
14USA U18 W4+2612
15USA W6+1112
16Japan U175+712
17Nigeria W5+612
18United States U20 W6+711
19Egypt W8−111
20Uzbekistan U20 W10−311
21El Salvador W4+910
22Thailand W4+710
23Russia U19 W5+510
24England U23 W4+510
25Algeria W6+210
26Sweden U18 W6−510
27Bangladesh U19 W4+149
28Spain U20 W3+129
29Canada W4+119
30India U17 W4+119
31China W5+89
32Australia W4+89
33Italy U23 W4+39
34South Africa W4−19
35Botswana W4+68
36Vanuatu W5+48
37Tunisia W4+28
38Morocco U20 W4+67
39Canada U20 W4+47
40Kenya W6+37
41Iran U20 W3+27
42Scotland U17 W4+27
43Brazil U20 W507
44Portugal U20 W5−17
45Solomon Islands W4−27
46Senegal W6−37
47Ethiopia W2+266
48Romania U19 W2+126
49Georgia U19 W2+86
50Montenegro U19 W2+66
51Denmark U19 W3+56
52Bermuda W2+56
53Kyrgyz Republic W4+46
54Japan W4+46
55Austria U19 W2+46
56Chile U20 W2+46
57Cook Islands W2+46
58Uzbekistan W4+36
59Finland U23 W3+36
60Austria U17 W2+36
61Haiti W2+36
62Czech Republic U17 W3+26
63Finland U18 W2+26
64Netherlands U23 W6+16
65Italy U17 W4+16
66Jordan W3+16
67Thailand U20 W3+16
68Cameroon W3+16
69Portugal U17 W3+16
70Mexico W306
71Mauritania W3−16
72Hong Kong W3−16
73Portugal U23 W4−16
74Germany U19 W4−16
75Benin W7−36
76Chile W3−36
77Malta U19 W4−56
78France U23 W6−56
79Zambia W7−76
80Fiji W7−76
81Mexico U20 W6−86
82Mexico U23 W3+35
83Portugal U19 W3+25
84USA U23 W3+15
85Scotland U19 W3+15
86England U17 W405
87Norway U23 W5−15
88Morocco U17 W4−45
89Tanzania W6−65
90Cambodia W2+54
91Vietnam U20 W2+44
92Switzerland U19 W2+24
93Bosnia & Herzegovina U19 W2+24
94Turkey U18 W2+24
95Finland U17 W2+14
96Uruguay W2+14
97Venezuela W2+14
98Argentina U17 W2+14
99France U19 W2+14
100Japan U20 W2+14
101Nigeria U20 W2+14
102Serbia U19 W2+14
103Colombia U20 W2+14
104Jamaica W2+14
105Norway U17 W2+14
106Canada W U17304
107Portugal U18 W4−14
108Uruguay U20 W4−34
109Burkina Faso W6−64
110Indonesia W4−64
111Bhutan W1+73
112Pakistan W3+53
113Congo DR W2+43
114Czech Republic U23 W2+33
115Bangladesh U20 W1+23
116Metalist 1925 W1+23
117Netherlands U17 W1+23
118Turkey U19 W2+13
119France U20 W1+13
120Morocco U23 W1+13
121Norway U19 W2+13
122Armenia W1+13
123Palestine W2+13
124Philippines W2+13
125Poland U20 W2+13
126Csikszereda MC W1+13
127San Diego Wave W1+13
128Iceland U19 W203
129Kyrgyzstan W303
130Mali W4−13
131Zimbabwe W2−13
132Italy U19 W4−13
133Denmark U23 W4−23
134Denmark U17 W2−23
135Sweden U19 W2−23
136Azerbaijan U19 W2−33
137Poland U17 W4−33
138Finland U19 W3−33
139Singapore W2−33
140Nepal U19 W3−43
141Netherlands U19 W3−53
142Wales U19 W4−73
143Vietnam W5−133
144Poland U19 W202
145Germany U17 W3−12
146Mexico U17 W4−22
147Switzerland U17 W5−72
148América W101
149Cyprus W101
150Faroe Islands W101
151Greece W101
152Italy U20 W101
153Moldova W101
154Croatia U19 W101
155Spartak Moskva W101
156Tajikistan W101
157UAE W101
158Benin U20 W2−11
159Ecuador W2−11
160Hungary U17 W2−11
161South Africa U17 W2−11
162Ecuador U20 W2−11
163Greece U19 W2−11
164Myanmar W2−11
165New Zealand W2−11
166Panama W2−11
167Belgium U19 W3−21
168Republic of Ireland U19 W2−21
169Slovenia U19 W2−21
170Uzbekistan U18 W2−21
171Namibia W2−31
172Scotland U23 W3−51
173South Korea W3−61
174Czech Republic U19 W4−61
175Korea Republic U20 W4−61
176Hungary U19 W3−81
177Costa Rica W3−91
178Cape Verde W4−111
179Malawi W6−121
180Ukraine U19 W3−121
181American Samoa W1−10
182Belgium U17 W1−10
183Ghana U20 W1−10
184Schlieren W1−10
185Hertha Berlin W1−10
186Norway U18 W2−20
187Equatorial Guinea W1−20
188Albion San Diego W1−20
189France U17 W1−20
190Zvezda Perm W1−20
191Malaysia W2−30
192Comoros W2−30
193Dominican Republic W1−30
194Argentina U20 W2−40
195Guatemala W1−40
196Romania U23 W1−40
197Afghanistan W2−40
198Chile U17 W2−40
199Estonia W1−40
200Sri Lanka W1−40
201Perth Azzurri W1−50
202Costa Rica U20 W2−50
203Belize W2−50
204Perth RedStar W1−50
205Peru W2−50
206Cyprus U19 W2−60
207Jordan U20 W3−60
208Belgium U23 W5−70
209Macau W1−70
210Wales U17 W2−70
211Laos W2−80
212Lesotho W2−80
213Armenia U19 W2−80
214Paraguay W3−80
215Tajikistan U20 W3−100
216Saudi Arabia U20 W3−100
217New Caledonia U20 W1−110
218Bahrain W3−120
219New Caledonia W6−160
220Bhutan U19 W3−210
221Seychelles W2−260
222Turks and Caicos Islands W3−280

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.