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Haiti W v Australia W

Haiti W
1–7Full time
Australia W

Friendlies Women · TUE 13 OCT · Stade Walter Luzi

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30
Haiti W 1–7 Australia W HAITI W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Haiti W win44%
The market said11%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.605
The market’s Brier score0.098

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 45 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Haiti W win at 44%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Haiti W v Australia W
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Haiti W 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–18–38
  4. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Haiti W 0–1 Australia W
  5. 4′Australia W ahead on 2′ through L. McKenna. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–17–56
  6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Haiti W win: 44% at kick-off, 27% now
  7. 4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Australia W win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Haiti W win 27%)
  8. 4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Haiti W 1–1 Australia W · D. M. Dumornay (assist A. Ibrahim)
  9. 6′D. M. Dumornay scores for Haiti W on 3′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 44–18–38
  10. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Haiti W win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
  11. 6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Haiti W win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Australia W win 38%)
  12. 30′The goal count is tracking the 5.3 we expected. 1–1 · 41–22–37
  13. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Australia W
  14. 45′45′ and it is 1–2: L. McKenna on the scoresheet for Australia W. 1–2 · 18–21–61
  15. 45′We said Haiti W at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–2 · 18–21–61
  16. 45′44′ and it is 1–2: L. McKenna on the scoresheet for Australia W. 1–2 · 18–21–61
  17. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Haiti W 1–2 Australia W
  18. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Haiti W win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
  19. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Australia W win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Haiti W win 18%)
  20. 45′HALF-TIME Haiti W 1–2 Australia W
  21. 45′⚽ GOAL · 2' Haiti W 1–2 Australia W · L. McKenna (assist C. Wheeler)
  22. 45′⚽ GOAL · 3' Haiti W 1–2 Australia W · D. M. Dumornay (assist A. Ibrahim)
  23. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 29' C. Wheeler · Australia W
  24. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Haiti W 1–2 Australia W · L. McKenna
  25. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 30' C. Wheeler · Australia W
  26. 45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Haiti W 1–2 Australia W · L. McKenna
  27. 46′SECOND HALF Haiti W 1–2 Australia W
  28. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Haiti W · On: Chelsea Domond · Off: R. Eloissaint
  29. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Haiti W 1–3 Australia W
  30. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Australia W
  31. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' C. Nevin · Australia W
  32. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Haiti W · On: C. Surpris · Off: K. Louis
  33. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Haiti W · On: N. Jean-Baptiste · Off: A. Ibrahim
  34. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Haiti W 1–4 Australia W · C. Foord
  35. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Australia W · On: D. Galic · Off: H. Raso
  36. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Australia W · On: R. Siemsen · Off: L. McKenna
  37. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Australia W · On: A. Apostolakis · Off: K. Torpey
  38. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Australia W · On: H. McNamara · Off: S. Kerr
  39. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Australia W · On: A. Apostolakis · Off: K. Torpey
  40. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Haiti W 1–5 Australia W · D. Galic
  41. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Haiti W · On: F. Joseph · Off: B. Raphino
  42. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Haiti W · On: A. Pierre-Louis · Off: J. Limage
  43. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Haiti W · On: L. Etienne · Off: B. Louis
  44. 78′73′ and it is 1–5: D. Galic on the scoresheet for Australia W. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  45. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' A. Pierre-Louis · Haiti W
  46. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Haiti W win: 44% at kick-off, 0% now
  47. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Haiti W 1–6 Australia W · C. Wheeler (assist R. Siemsen)
  48. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Australia W · On: C. Lincoln · Off: M. Arnold
  49. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Australia W · On: T. Tumeth · Off: C. Nevin
  50. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Australia W · On: A. Chidiac · Off: C. Wheeler
  51. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Australia W · On: J. Rankin · Off: C. Grant
  52. 83′Australia W ahead on 80′ through C. Wheeler. 1–6. 1–6 · 0–0–100
  53. 87′We said Haiti W at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 1–6 · 0–0–100
  54. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Haiti W · On: A. Francois · Off: S. Jeudy
  55. 89′7 goals already, more than the 5.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–6 · 0–0–100
  56. 90′H. McNamara scores for Australia W on 90′ — 1–7. 1–7 · 0–0–100
  57. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Haiti W 1–7 Australia W · H. McNamara (assist A. Apostolakis)
  58. FTFULL TIME Haiti W 1–7 Australia W
  59. FTHaiti W 1–7 Australia W · Haiti W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Haiti W win44%
Draw18%
Australia W win38%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 20:00

VenueStade Walter Luzi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Haiti W

Australia W

4Days since last match4
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
36Australia W5+69
78Haiti W3−16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · haiti w winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off
44% The market11%
Us44%
Market11%

We make Haiti W a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 11%. We are 33 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–2.6.

How the number movedSince we published
0%10%20%30%40%50%60% 9 OCT 06:2313 OCT 19:51
Our probability · haiti w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 11% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Haiti W win44%11%+33
Draw18%15%+3
Australia W win38%75%−36
Over 2.5 goals90%76%+14
Both teams to score86%––
Over 1.5 goals97%––
Over 3.5 goals78%56%+22
Haiti W or draw62%25%+36
Haiti W clean sheet8%––
Australia W clean sheet6%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.1%
0123450 1 3.5 4.5 3.8 2.5 2 4.8 6.1 5.3 3.4 3 4.4 5.6 4.8 3.1 4 3.0 3.8 3.3 2.1 5 2.1
under 2% 5% 12%+Haiti W down, Australia W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2011

No meetings between these two in Friendlies Women since 2011. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Friendlies Women

HAITI W

WWDWWL2–0 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–5

AUSTRALIA W

LWWLWL0–1 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–4

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Morocco W11+2125
2Ivory Coast W9+2922
3Saudi Arabia W10+1922
4Russia W8+1419
5India W12−219
6Brazil W9+1318
7England U20 W9+1517
8United States W U179+1417
9Sweden U23 W8+717
10Germany U23 W8+617
11USA U19 W7+1016
12Russia U19 W7+814
13Papua New Guinea W5+1313
14Ghana W5+1313
15USA U18 W4+2612
16USA W7+912
17Japan U175+712
18Nigeria W5+612
19Germany U19 W6+512
20United States U20 W6+711
21Norway U23 W7+411
22Egypt W8−111
23Uzbekistan U20 W10−311
24Sweden U18 W7−511
25Canada W6+1010
26Thailand W4+710
27El Salvador W5+510
28Italy U23 W5+310
29England U23 W5+310
30Algeria W6+210
31Bangladesh U19 W4+149
32Spain U20 W3+129
33India U17 W4+119
34China W5+89
35Japan W5+89
36Australia W5+69
37Netherlands U23 W7+49
38Chile W4+49
39Austria U19 W4+39
40South Africa W4−19
41Botswana W4+68
42Vanuatu W5+48
43Scotland U19 W4+38
44Tunisia W4+28
45Morocco U20 W4+67
46Canada U20 W4+47
47Kenya W6+37
48Iran U20 W3+27
49Scotland U17 W4+27
50Jamaica W3+27
51Uzbekistan W6+17
52Brazil U20 W507
53Portugal U20 W5−17
54Solomon Islands W4−27
55Senegal W6−37
56Portugal U23 W6−47
57France U23 W7−57
58Ethiopia W2+266
59Romania U19 W2+126
60Georgia U19 W2+86
61Montenegro U19 W2+66
62Denmark U19 W3+56
63Norway U19 W3+56
64Bermuda W2+56
65Kyrgyz Republic W4+46
66Chile U20 W2+46
67Cook Islands W2+46
68Austria U17 W2+36
69Czech Republic U17 W3+26
70Finland U23 W4+26
71Finland U18 W2+26
72Italy U17 W4+16
73Jordan W3+16
74Thailand U20 W3+16
75Cameroon W3+16
76Portugal U17 W3+16
77Mauritania W3−16
78Haiti W3−16
79Hong Kong W3−16
80Mexico W4−16
81Benin W7−36
82Malta U19 W4−56
83Zambia W7−76
84Fiji W7−76
85Mexico U20 W6−86
86Mexico U23 W3+35
87Poland U19 W3+35
88Portugal U19 W3+25
89USA U23 W3+15
90England U17 W405
91Morocco U17 W4−45
92Indonesia W5−65
93Tanzania W6−65
94Cambodia W2+54
95Faroe Islands W3+44
96Vietnam U20 W2+44
97Switzerland U19 W2+24
98Bosnia & Herzegovina U19 W2+24
99Turkey U18 W2+24
100Denmark W2+14
101Turkey U19 W3+14
102Finland U17 W2+14
103Uruguay W2+14
104Argentina U17 W2+14
105France U19 W2+14
106Japan U20 W2+14
107Latvia U19 W2+14
108Palestine W3+14
109Armenia W2+14
110Nigeria U20 W2+14
111Colombia U20 W2+14
112Norway U17 W2+14
113Canada W U17304
114Venezuela W304
115Greece U19 W304
116Moldova W304
117Croatia U19 W3−14
118Portugal U18 W4−14
119Serbia U19 W4−24
120Finland U19 W4−34
121Slovenia U19 W4−34
122Uruguay U20 W4−34
123Burkina Faso W6−64
124France W1+93
125Bhutan W1+73
126Pakistan W3+53
127Congo DR W2+43
128Liechtenstein W1+33
129Czechia U23 W3+23
130Germany W1+23
131Spain U19 W1+23
132Bangladesh U20 W1+23
133Metalist 1925 W1+23
134Netherlands U17 W1+23
135Spain W1+23
136France U20 W1+13
137Montenegro W1+13
138Morocco U23 W1+13
139Poland U20 W2+13
140Colombia W1+13
141Csikszereda MC W1+13
142Malta W1+13
143San Diego Wave W1+13
144Iceland U19 W203
145Kyrgyzstan W303
146Philippines W303
147Georgia W203
148Mali W4−13
149Zimbabwe W2−13
150Denmark U23 W4−23
151Denmark U17 W2−23
152Azerbaijan U19 W2−33
153Poland U17 W4−33
154Estonia W2−33
155Singapore W2−33
156Paraguay W4−43
157Andorra W2−43
158Jordan U20 W4−43
159Nepal U19 W3−43
160Peru W3−43
161Sweden U19 W3−43
162Italy U19 W5−53
163Netherlands U19 W4−63
164Wales U19 W5−83
165Vietnam W5−133
166Germany U17 W3−12
167Belgium U19 W4−22
168Mexico U17 W4−22
169Switzerland U17 W5−72
170América W101
171Cyprus W101
172Greece W101
173Italy U20 W101
174Kosovo U19 W101
175Lebanon W101
176North Macedonia U19 W101
177Puerto Rico W U17101
178Slovakia U19 W101
179Spartak Moskva W101
180Tajikistan W101
181UAE W101
182Benin U20 W2−11
183Ecuador W2−11
184Hungary U17 W2−11
185Estonia U19 W2−11
186South Africa U17 W2−11
187Ecuador U20 W2−11
188Myanmar W2−11
189New Zealand W2−11
190Panama W2−11
191Republic of Ireland U19 W2−21
192Uzbekistan U18 W2−21
193Belarus U19 W2−31
194Namibia W2−31
195South Korea W3−61
196Czech Republic U19 W4−61
197Korea Republic U20 W4−61
198Belgium U23 W6−71
199Costa Rica W3−91
200Scotland U23 W5−101
201Cape Verde W4−111
202Malawi W6−121
203Hungary U19 W4−121
204Ukraine U19 W3−121
205Bosnia-Herzegovina W1−10
206American Samoa W1−10
207Belgium U17 W1−10
208Ghana U20 W1−10
209Schlieren W1−10
210Hertha Berlin W1−10
211Luxembourg W1−10
212Norway U18 W2−20
213Argentina W1−20
214Equatorial Guinea W1−20
215Albion San Diego W1−20
216France U17 W1−20
217Zvezda Perm W1−20
218Comoros W2−30
219Dominican Republic W1−30
220Gibraltar W1−30
221Argentina U20 W2−40
222Guatemala W1−40
223Romania U23 W1−40
224Afghanistan W2−40
225Chile U17 W2−40
226Sri Lanka W1−40
227Malaysia W3−50
228Perth Azzurri W1−50
229Costa Rica U20 W2−50
230Belize W2−50
231Perth RedStar W1−50
232Cyprus U19 W2−60
233Bolivia W1−70
234Macau W1−70
235Wales U17 W2−70
236Laos W2−80
237Lesotho W2−80
238Armenia U19 W2−80
239Latvia W1−90
240Tajikistan U20 W3−100
241New Caledonia U20 W1−110
242Bahrain W3−120
243Saudi Arabia U20 W4−120
244New Caledonia W6−160
245Bhutan U19 W3−210
246Seychelles W2−260
247Turks and Caicos Islands W3−280

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.