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Germany W v Japan W

Germany W
2–1Full time
Japan W

Friendlies Women · TUE 13 OCT · Weserstadion

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:32
Germany W 2–1 Japan W GERMANY W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Germany W win56%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.295
The market’s Brier score0.327

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Germany W win at 56%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Germany W was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–20–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Germany W v Japan W
  4. 15′M. Tanikawa scores for Japan W on 14′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 30–22–48
  5. 15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Germany W 0–1 Japan W
  6. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Germany W win: 56% at kick-off, 30% now
  7. 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Japan W win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Germany W win 30%)
  8. 17′We said Germany W at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–1 · 30–22–48
  9. 24′We said Germany W at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–23–49
  10. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Germany W 1–1 Japan W · L. Dallmann
  11. 29′28′ and it is 1–1: L. Dallmann on the scoresheet for Germany W. 1–1 · 49–25–26
  12. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Germany W win: 56% at kick-off, 49% now
  13. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Germany W win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Japan W win 26%)
  14. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Japan W
  15. 39′Goals are coming at about the 4.0 we expected. 1–1 · 47–28–25
  16. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Germany W win: 56% at kick-off, 45% now
  17. 46′HALF-TIME Germany W 1–1 Japan W
  18. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Germany W · On: J. Minge · Off: C. Kuver
  19. 57′We said Germany W at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 40–37–23
  20. 57′SECOND HALF Germany W 1–1 Japan W
  21. 59′We said Germany W at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–38–23
  22. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Japan W · On: H. Miyazawa · Off: M. Tanikawa
  23. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Japan W · On: R. Chiba · Off: F. Nagano
  24. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Germany W win: 56% at kick-off, 36% now
  25. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Germany W win 36%)
  26. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Germany W · On: C. Wamser · Off: M. Muller
  27. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Germany W · On: C. Zicai · Off: J. Brand
  28. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Japan W · On: M. Hamano · Off: K. Seike
  29. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Germany W 2–1 Japan W · L. Dallmann
  30. 72′⚽ GOAL · 73' Germany W 2–1 Japan W · K. Buhl
  31. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Germany W
  32. 74′Germany W ahead on 73′ through K. Buhl. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
  33. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Germany W win: 56% at kick-off, 83% now
  34. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Germany W win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
  35. 77′We published Germany W at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  36. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Germany W win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
  37. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Japan W · On: R. Ishikawa · Off: Y. Yamamoto
  38. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Germany W
  39. 84′We published Germany W at 56%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–0
  40. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Germany W · On: S. Linder · Off: F. Kett
  41. 91′We published Germany W at 56%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
  42. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Germany W win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
  43. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Germany W · On: S. Martinez · Off: L. Dallmann
  44. FTFULL TIME Germany W 2–1 Japan W
  45. FTGermany W 2–1 Japan W · Germany W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

Germany W win56%
Draw17%
Japan W win27%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 16:45

VenueWeserstadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Germany W

Japan W

4Days since last match4
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
35Japan W5+89
130Germany W1+23

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · germany w winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off
56% The market53%
Us56%
Market53%

We make Germany W a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:2313 OCT 14:07
Our probability · germany w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Germany W win56%53%+3
Draw17%24%−7
Japan W win27%23%+4
Over 2.5 goals76%59%+17
Both teams to score71%60%+11
Over 1.5 goals89%80%+9
Over 3.5 goals56%40%+16
Germany W or draw73%77%−4
Germany W clean sheet20%––
Japan W clean sheet9%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%
0123450 4.3 2.4 1 5.7 5.9 5.7 3.1 2 5.3 8.5 6.8 3.6 3 4.2 6.7 5.4 2.9 4 2.5 4.0 3.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Germany W down, Japan W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2011

No meetings between these two in Friendlies Women since 2011. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Friendlies Women

GERMANY W

WWDWWW4–0 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 4–2

JAPAN W

WLWWLW1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 5–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Morocco W11+2125
2Ivory Coast W9+2922
3Saudi Arabia W10+1922
4Russia W8+1419
5India W12−219
6Brazil W9+1318
7England U20 W9+1517
8United States W U179+1417
9Sweden U23 W8+717
10Germany U23 W8+617
11USA U19 W7+1016
12Russia U19 W7+814
13Papua New Guinea W5+1313
14Ghana W5+1313
15USA U18 W4+2612
16USA W7+912
17Japan U175+712
18Nigeria W5+612
19Germany U19 W6+512
20United States U20 W6+711
21Norway U23 W7+411
22Egypt W8−111
23Uzbekistan U20 W10−311
24Sweden U18 W7−511
25Canada W6+1010
26Thailand W4+710
27El Salvador W5+510
28Italy U23 W5+310
29England U23 W5+310
30Algeria W6+210
31Bangladesh U19 W4+149
32Spain U20 W3+129
33India U17 W4+119
34China W5+89
35Japan W5+89
36Australia W5+69
37Netherlands U23 W7+49
38Chile W4+49
39Austria U19 W4+39
40South Africa W4−19
41Botswana W4+68
42Vanuatu W5+48
43Scotland U19 W4+38
44Tunisia W4+28
45Morocco U20 W4+67
46Canada U20 W4+47
47Kenya W6+37
48Iran U20 W3+27
49Scotland U17 W4+27
50Jamaica W3+27
51Uzbekistan W6+17
52Brazil U20 W507
53Portugal U20 W5−17
54Solomon Islands W4−27
55Senegal W6−37
56Portugal U23 W6−47
57France U23 W7−57
58Ethiopia W2+266
59Romania U19 W2+126
60Georgia U19 W2+86
61Montenegro U19 W2+66
62Denmark U19 W3+56
63Norway U19 W3+56
64Bermuda W2+56
65Kyrgyz Republic W4+46
66Chile U20 W2+46
67Cook Islands W2+46
68Austria U17 W2+36
69Czech Republic U17 W3+26
70Finland U23 W4+26
71Finland U18 W2+26
72Italy U17 W4+16
73Jordan W3+16
74Thailand U20 W3+16
75Cameroon W3+16
76Portugal U17 W3+16
77Mauritania W3−16
78Haiti W3−16
79Hong Kong W3−16
80Mexico W4−16
81Benin W7−36
82Malta U19 W4−56
83Zambia W7−76
84Fiji W7−76
85Mexico U20 W6−86
86Mexico U23 W3+35
87Poland U19 W3+35
88Portugal U19 W3+25
89USA U23 W3+15
90England U17 W405
91Morocco U17 W4−45
92Indonesia W5−65
93Tanzania W6−65
94Cambodia W2+54
95Faroe Islands W3+44
96Vietnam U20 W2+44
97Switzerland U19 W2+24
98Bosnia & Herzegovina U19 W2+24
99Turkey U18 W2+24
100Denmark W2+14
101Turkey U19 W3+14
102Finland U17 W2+14
103Uruguay W2+14
104Argentina U17 W2+14
105France U19 W2+14
106Japan U20 W2+14
107Latvia U19 W2+14
108Palestine W3+14
109Armenia W2+14
110Nigeria U20 W2+14
111Colombia U20 W2+14
112Norway U17 W2+14
113Canada W U17304
114Venezuela W304
115Greece U19 W304
116Moldova W304
117Croatia U19 W3−14
118Portugal U18 W4−14
119Serbia U19 W4−24
120Finland U19 W4−34
121Slovenia U19 W4−34
122Uruguay U20 W4−34
123Burkina Faso W6−64
124France W1+93
125Bhutan W1+73
126Pakistan W3+53
127Congo DR W2+43
128Liechtenstein W1+33
129Czechia U23 W3+23
130Germany W1+23
131Spain U19 W1+23
132Bangladesh U20 W1+23
133Metalist 1925 W1+23
134Netherlands U17 W1+23
135Spain W1+23
136France U20 W1+13
137Montenegro W1+13
138Morocco U23 W1+13
139Poland U20 W2+13
140Colombia W1+13
141Csikszereda MC W1+13
142Malta W1+13
143San Diego Wave W1+13
144Iceland U19 W203
145Kyrgyzstan W303
146Philippines W303
147Georgia W203
148Mali W4−13
149Zimbabwe W2−13
150Denmark U23 W4−23
151Denmark U17 W2−23
152Azerbaijan U19 W2−33
153Poland U17 W4−33
154Estonia W2−33
155Singapore W2−33
156Paraguay W4−43
157Andorra W2−43
158Jordan U20 W4−43
159Nepal U19 W3−43
160Peru W3−43
161Sweden U19 W3−43
162Italy U19 W5−53
163Netherlands U19 W4−63
164Wales U19 W5−83
165Vietnam W5−133
166Germany U17 W3−12
167Belgium U19 W4−22
168Mexico U17 W4−22
169Switzerland U17 W5−72
170América W101
171Cyprus W101
172Greece W101
173Italy U20 W101
174Kosovo U19 W101
175Lebanon W101
176North Macedonia U19 W101
177Puerto Rico W U17101
178Slovakia U19 W101
179Spartak Moskva W101
180Tajikistan W101
181UAE W101
182Benin U20 W2−11
183Ecuador W2−11
184Hungary U17 W2−11
185Estonia U19 W2−11
186South Africa U17 W2−11
187Ecuador U20 W2−11
188Myanmar W2−11
189New Zealand W2−11
190Panama W2−11
191Republic of Ireland U19 W2−21
192Uzbekistan U18 W2−21
193Belarus U19 W2−31
194Namibia W2−31
195South Korea W3−61
196Czech Republic U19 W4−61
197Korea Republic U20 W4−61
198Belgium U23 W6−71
199Costa Rica W3−91
200Scotland U23 W5−101
201Cape Verde W4−111
202Malawi W6−121
203Hungary U19 W4−121
204Ukraine U19 W3−121
205Bosnia-Herzegovina W1−10
206American Samoa W1−10
207Belgium U17 W1−10
208Ghana U20 W1−10
209Schlieren W1−10
210Hertha Berlin W1−10
211Luxembourg W1−10
212Norway U18 W2−20
213Argentina W1−20
214Equatorial Guinea W1−20
215Albion San Diego W1−20
216France U17 W1−20
217Zvezda Perm W1−20
218Comoros W2−30
219Dominican Republic W1−30
220Gibraltar W1−30
221Argentina U20 W2−40
222Guatemala W1−40
223Romania U23 W1−40
224Afghanistan W2−40
225Chile U17 W2−40
226Sri Lanka W1−40
227Malaysia W3−50
228Perth Azzurri W1−50
229Costa Rica U20 W2−50
230Belize W2−50
231Perth RedStar W1−50
232Cyprus U19 W2−60
233Bolivia W1−70
234Macau W1−70
235Wales U17 W2−70
236Laos W2−80
237Lesotho W2−80
238Armenia U19 W2−80
239Latvia W1−90
240Tajikistan U20 W3−100
241New Caledonia U20 W1−110
242Bahrain W3−120
243Saudi Arabia U20 W4−120
244New Caledonia W6−160
245Bhutan U19 W3−210
246Seychelles W2−260
247Turks and Caicos Islands W3−280

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.