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Model 1.1

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Canada W v Denmark W

Canada W
3–4Full time
Denmark W

Friendlies Women · MON 12 OCT · BMO Field

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 23:00
Canada W 3–4 Denmark W CANADA W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Canada W win61%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.099
The market’s Brier score0.968

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 36 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Canada W win at 61%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Canada W 61% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–25–16
  3. 12′Canada W ahead on 10′ through D. Pridham. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–4
  4. 14′We said Canada W at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
  5. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Canada W win: 61% at kick-off, 59% now
  6. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Canada W win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
  7. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Canada W win: 61% at kick-off, 59% now
  8. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Canada W win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
  9. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Canada W win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
  10. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Canada W win: 61% at kick-off, 59% now
  11. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Canada W win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
  12. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Canada W win: 61% at kick-off, 59% now
  13. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Canada W win: 61% at kick-off, 59% now
  14. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Canada W win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
  15. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Canada W win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
  16. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Canada W win: 61% at kick-off, 59% now
  17. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Canada W win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
  18. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Canada W 1–1 Denmark W · O. Holdt
  19. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Canada W 1–2 Denmark W · P. Harder
  20. 33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Canada W 1–3 Denmark W
  21. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Denmark W
  22. 45′HALF-TIME Canada W 1–3 Denmark W
  23. 46′SECOND HALF Canada W 1–3 Denmark W
  24. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Canada W · On: E. Viens · Off: D. Pridham
  25. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Canada W 2–3 Denmark W
  26. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Canada W 2–4 Denmark W · J. Thomsen
  27. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Canada W · On: G. Carle · Off: A. Lawrence
  28. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Canada W · On: G. Carle · Off: A. Lawrence
  29. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Denmark W · On: C. Moller · Off: P. Harder
  30. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Denmark W · On: M. Gejl · Off: K. Kuhl
  31. 71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Canada W 3–4 Denmark W · O. Smith
  32. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Canada W · On: M. Alidou d'Anjou · Off: S. Awujo
  33. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Canada W · On: E. Regan · Off: J. Grosso
  34. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Denmark W · On: A. Walter · Off: A. Vangsgaard
  35. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Denmark W · On: F. Thogersen · Off: O. Holdt
  36. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Denmark W
  37. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Canada W · On: A. Chapman · Off: J. Fleming
  38. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Canada W
  39. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Denmark W
  40. FTFULL TIME Canada W 3–4 Denmark W
  41. FTCanada W 3–4 Denmark W · Canada W win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 20:08 · locked at kick-off

Canada W win61%
Draw21%
Denmark W win18%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 20:30

VenueBMO Field

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Canada W

Denmark W

3Days since last match3
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
21Canada W5+1110
162Denmark W101

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · canada w winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 20:08 · locked at kick-off
61% The market52%
Us61%
Market52%

We make Canada W a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:2312 OCT 18:15
Our probability · canada w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Canada W win61%52%+9
Draw21%27%−6
Denmark W win18%21%−3
Over 2.5 goals40%43%−3
Both teams to score38%46%−9
Over 1.5 goals65%68%−3
Over 3.5 goals20%24%−4
Canada W or draw82%79%+3
Canada W clean sheet50%––
Denmark W clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.0%
0123450 8.5 8.7 2.4 1 18.0 9.4 3.8 2 13.0 8.9 3.1 3 6.9 4.8 4 2.8 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Canada W down, Denmark W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsCAN 1–1 DEN

Form · last six in Friendlies Women

CANADA W

LWWLWD0–1 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 6–0 · 1–1

DENMARK W

DWDWWD1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ivory Coast W9+2922
2Saudi Arabia W10+1922
3Morocco W9+1921
4Russia W8+1419
5India W12−219
6Brazil W9+1318
7England U20 W9+1517
8United States W U179+1417
9USA U19 W7+1016
10Papua New Guinea W5+1313
11Ghana W5+1313
12Sweden U23 W6+613
13Germany U23 W6+413
14USA U18 W4+2612
15USA W7+912
16Japan U175+712
17Nigeria W5+612
18United States U20 W6+711
19Egypt W8−111
20Uzbekistan U20 W10−311
21Canada W5+1110
22Thailand W4+710
23El Salvador W5+510
24Russia U19 W5+510
25England U23 W4+510
26Algeria W6+210
27Sweden U18 W6−510
28Bangladesh U19 W4+149
29Spain U20 W3+129
30India U17 W4+119
31China W5+89
32Australia W5+69
33Chile W4+49
34Italy U23 W4+39
35South Africa W4−19
36Botswana W4+68
37Vanuatu W5+48
38Tunisia W4+28
39Morocco U20 W4+67
40Canada U20 W4+47
41Kenya W6+37
42Iran U20 W3+27
43Scotland U17 W4+27
44Jamaica W3+27
45Brazil U20 W507
46Portugal U20 W5−17
47Solomon Islands W4−27
48Senegal W6−37
49Ethiopia W2+266
50Romania U19 W2+126
51Georgia U19 W2+86
52Montenegro U19 W2+66
53Denmark U19 W3+56
54Bermuda W2+56
55Kyrgyz Republic W4+46
56Japan W4+46
57Austria U19 W2+46
58Chile U20 W2+46
59Cook Islands W2+46
60Uzbekistan W4+36
61Finland U23 W3+36
62Austria U17 W2+36
63Haiti W2+36
64Czech Republic U17 W3+26
65Finland U18 W2+26
66Netherlands U23 W6+16
67Italy U17 W4+16
68Jordan W3+16
69Thailand U20 W3+16
70Cameroon W3+16
71Portugal U17 W3+16
72Mauritania W3−16
73Hong Kong W3−16
74Mexico W4−16
75Portugal U23 W4−16
76Germany U19 W4−16
77Benin W7−36
78Malta U19 W4−56
79France U23 W6−56
80Zambia W7−76
81Fiji W7−76
82Mexico U20 W6−86
83Mexico U23 W3+35
84Portugal U19 W3+25
85USA U23 W3+15
86Scotland U19 W3+15
87England U17 W405
88Norway U23 W5−15
89Morocco U17 W4−45
90Indonesia W5−65
91Tanzania W6−65
92Cambodia W2+54
93Faroe Islands W2+54
94Vietnam U20 W2+44
95Switzerland U19 W2+24
96Bosnia & Herzegovina U19 W2+24
97Turkey U18 W2+24
98Finland U17 W2+14
99Uruguay W2+14
100Argentina U17 W2+14
101France U19 W2+14
102Japan U20 W2+14
103Armenia W2+14
104Moldova W2+14
105Nigeria U20 W2+14
106Serbia U19 W2+14
107Colombia U20 W2+14
108Norway U17 W2+14
109Canada W U17304
110Venezuela W304
111Portugal U18 W4−14
112Uruguay U20 W4−34
113Burkina Faso W6−64
114France W1+93
115Bhutan W1+73
116Pakistan W3+53
117Congo DR W2+43
118Liechtenstein W1+33
119Czechia U23 W3+23
120Germany W1+23
121Bangladesh U20 W1+23
122Metalist 1925 W1+23
123Netherlands U17 W1+23
124Spain W1+23
125Turkey U19 W2+13
126France U20 W1+13
127Montenegro W1+13
128Morocco U23 W1+13
129Norway U19 W2+13
130Palestine W2+13
131Poland U20 W2+13
132Colombia W1+13
133Csikszereda MC W1+13
134Malta W1+13
135San Diego Wave W1+13
136Iceland U19 W203
137Kyrgyzstan W303
138Philippines W303
139Mali W4−13
140Zimbabwe W2−13
141Italy U19 W4−13
142Denmark U23 W4−23
143Denmark U17 W2−23
144Sweden U19 W2−23
145Azerbaijan U19 W2−33
146Poland U17 W4−33
147Estonia W2−33
148Finland U19 W3−33
149Singapore W2−33
150Paraguay W4−43
151Nepal U19 W3−43
152Peru W3−43
153Netherlands U19 W3−53
154Wales U19 W4−73
155Vietnam W5−133
156Poland U19 W202
157Germany U17 W3−12
158Mexico U17 W4−22
159Switzerland U17 W5−72
160América W101
161Cyprus W101
162Denmark W101
163Greece W101
164Italy U20 W101
165Croatia U19 W101
166Spartak Moskva W101
167Tajikistan W101
168UAE W101
169Benin U20 W2−11
170Ecuador W2−11
171Hungary U17 W2−11
172South Africa U17 W2−11
173Ecuador U20 W2−11
174Greece U19 W2−11
175Myanmar W2−11
176New Zealand W2−11
177Panama W2−11
178Belgium U19 W3−21
179Republic of Ireland U19 W2−21
180Slovenia U19 W2−21
181Uzbekistan U18 W2−21
182Namibia W2−31
183Scotland U23 W3−51
184South Korea W3−61
185Czech Republic U19 W4−61
186Korea Republic U20 W4−61
187Hungary U19 W3−81
188Costa Rica W3−91
189Cape Verde W4−111
190Malawi W6−121
191Ukraine U19 W3−121
192Bosnia-Herzegovina W1−10
193American Samoa W1−10
194Belgium U17 W1−10
195Ghana U20 W1−10
196Schlieren W1−10
197Georgia W1−10
198Hertha Berlin W1−10
199Luxembourg W1−10
200Norway U18 W2−20
201Argentina W1−20
202Equatorial Guinea W1−20
203Albion San Diego W1−20
204France U17 W1−20
205Zvezda Perm W1−20
206Comoros W2−30
207Dominican Republic W1−30
208Gibraltar W1−30
209Argentina U20 W2−40
210Guatemala W1−40
211Romania U23 W1−40
212Afghanistan W2−40
213Chile U17 W2−40
214Sri Lanka W1−40
215Malaysia W3−50
216Perth Azzurri W1−50
217Costa Rica U20 W2−50
218Andorra W1−50
219Belize W2−50
220Perth RedStar W1−50
221Cyprus U19 W2−60
222Jordan U20 W3−60
223Belgium U23 W5−70
224Bolivia W1−70
225Macau W1−70
226Wales U17 W2−70
227Laos W2−80
228Lesotho W2−80
229Armenia U19 W2−80
230Latvia W1−90
231Tajikistan U20 W3−100
232Saudi Arabia U20 W3−100
233New Caledonia U20 W1−110
234Bahrain W3−120
235New Caledonia W6−160
236Bhutan U19 W3−210
237Seychelles W2−260
238Turks and Caicos Islands W3−280

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.