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Canada W v Denmark W

Canada W

1–1After penalties

Denmark W

Friendlies Women · SAT 10 OCT · Saputo Stadium

After 90 minutesGraded 10 Oct 02:30

Canada W 1–1 Denmark W CANADA W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Canada W win~~55%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.927

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.848

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–1, the score after 90 minutes. It was decided on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Canada W win at 55%.
0′Much as we predicted: Canada W was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–29–19
1′KICK-OFF Canada W v Denmark W
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Canada W 0–1 Denmark W
23′⚽ GOAL · 24' Canada W 0–1 Denmark W
45′SECOND HALF Canada W 0–1 Denmark W
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Denmark W · On: J. Thomsen · Off: A. Vangsgaard
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Denmark W · On: S. Thrige · Off: S. Vendelbo Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Denmark W · On: C. Moller · Off: A. Walter
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Denmark W · On: E. Snerle · Off: O. Holdt
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Denmark W · On: C. Kramer · Off: P. Harder
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Denmark W · On: C. Moller · Off: A. Walter
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Denmark W · On: J. Thomsen · Off: A. Vangsgaard
49′🟨 YELLOW · 47' J. Thomsen · Denmark W
53′🟨 YELLOW · 47' J. Thomsen · Denmark W
53′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Denmark W · On: S. Ballisager · Off: S. Boye Corrected
53′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Denmark W · On: S. Svendsen · Off: S. Vendelbo Corrected
53′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Denmark W · On: A. Vingum · Off: M. Ostergaard Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Canada W · On: S. Awujo · Off: M. Alidou d'Anjou
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Canada W · On: K. Hunter · Off: N. Prince
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Canada W · On: A. Lawrence · Off: J. Sonis
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Canada W · On: E. Tse · Off: J. Rose
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Canada W · On: J. Grosso · Off: J. Fleming
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Canada W · On: S. Collins · Off: G. Carle
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Canada W 1–1 Denmark W · P. Harder
83′⚽ GOAL · 84' Canada W 1–1 Denmark W
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Denmark W · On: E. Fink · Off: P. Sanvig Corrected
FTFULL TIME Canada W 1–1 Denmark W
FTCanada W 1–1 Denmark W after 90 minutes, as graded · Canada W win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Canada W win55%

Draw24%

Denmark W win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 00:00

Venue · Saputo Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Canada W

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Sheridan

5 G. Carle

12 J. Rose

4 S. Zadorsky

16 J. Sonis

8 E. Regan

17 J. Fleming

15 N. Prince

19 M. Alidou d'Anjou

20 C. Lacasse

11 E. Viens

Coach · Casey Stoney

Substitutes

18 · S. D'Angelo

10 · A. Lawrence

27 · B. Courtnall

26 · E. Tse

6 · S. Collins

7 · J. Grosso

23 · C. Wickenheiser

9 · O. Smith

13 · S. Awujo

21 · D. Pridham

24 · K. Hunter

Denmark W

Formation not confirmed

16 M. Ostergaard

6 S. Vendelbo

5 S. Boye

24 C. Scheuer

15 F. Thogersen

12 K. Kuhl

14 S. Bredgaard

13 O. Holdt

9 A. Vangsgaard

10 P. Harder

17 A. Walter

Coach · Jakob Michelsen

Substitutes

1 · F. Thisgaard

22 · A. Vingum

3 · S. Ballisager

18 · S. Svendsen

2 · S. Thrige

23 · S. Svava

7 · J. Thomsen

11 · C. Moller

8 · E. Snerle

19 · P. Sanvig

25 · E. Fink

21 · M. Gejl

20 · C. Kramer

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Canada W

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Sheridan

5 G. Carle

12 J. Rose

4 S. Zadorsky

16 J. Sonis

8 E. Regan

17 J. Fleming

15 N. Prince

19 M. Alidou d'Anjou

20 C. Lacasse

11 E. Viens

Coach · Casey Stoney

Substitutes

18 · S. D'Angelo

10 · A. Lawrence

27 · B. Courtnall

26 · E. Tse

6 · S. Collins

7 · J. Grosso

23 · C. Wickenheiser

9 · O. Smith

13 · S. Awujo

21 · D. Pridham

24 · K. Hunter

Denmark W

Formation not confirmed

16 M. Ostergaard

6 S. Vendelbo

5 S. Boye

24 C. Scheuer

15 F. Thogersen

12 K. Kuhl

14 S. Bredgaard

13 O. Holdt

9 A. Vangsgaard

10 P. Harder

17 A. Walter

Coach · Jakob Michelsen

Substitutes

1 · F. Thisgaard

22 · A. Vingum

3 · S. Ballisager

18 · S. Svendsen

2 · S. Thrige

23 · S. Svava

7 · J. Thomsen

11 · C. Moller

8 · E. Snerle

19 · P. Sanvig

25 · E. Fink

21 · M. Gejl

20 · C. Kramer

Our number · canada w winPublished 10 Oct 00:00

55% The market52%

Us55%

~~Market~~52%

We make Canada W a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · canada w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 55% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Canada W win	55%	52%	+3
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Denmark W win	21%	21%	0
Over 2.5 goals	30%	45%	−15
Both teams to score	31%	48%	−17
Over 1.5 goals	54%	70%	−16
Over 3.5 goals	13%	25%	−13
Canada W or draw	79%	79%	0
Canada W clean sheet	53%	–	–
Denmark W clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 21.6%

0123450 11.9 12.2 3.0 1 21.6 9.2 3.8 2 12.0 7.7 2.4 3 5.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Canada W down, Denmark W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2011

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Friendlies Women

CANADA W

LLWWLW0–3 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 6–0

DENMARK W

WDWDWW3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ivory Coast W	9	+29	22
2	Morocco W	9	+19	21
3	Saudi Arabia W	9	+17	19
4	India W	11	+6	19
5	England U20 W	9	+15	17
6	United States W U17	9	+14	17
7	USA U19 W	7	+10	16
8	Russia W	7	+6	16
9	Brazil W	8	+11	15
10	Papua New Guinea W	5	+13	13
11	Ghana W	5	+13	13
12	Sweden U23 W	6	+6	13
13	Germany U23 W	6	+4	13
14	USA U18 W	4	+26	12
15	USA W	6	+11	12
16	Japan U17	5	+7	12
17	Nigeria W	5	+6	12
18	United States U20 W	6	+7	11
19	Egypt W	8	−1	11
20	Uzbekistan U20 W	10	−3	11
21	El Salvador W	4	+9	10
22	Thailand W	4	+7	10
23	Russia U19 W	5	+5	10
24	England U23 W	4	+5	10
25	Algeria W	6	+2	10
26	Sweden U18 W	6	−5	10
27	Bangladesh U19 W	4	+14	9
28	Spain U20 W	3	+12	9
29	Canada W	4	+11	9
30	India U17 W	4	+11	9
31	China W	5	+8	9
32	Australia W	4	+8	9
33	Italy U23 W	4	+3	9
34	South Africa W	4	−1	9
35	Botswana W	4	+6	8
36	Vanuatu W	5	+4	8
37	Tunisia W	4	+2	8
38	Morocco U20 W	4	+6	7
39	Canada U20 W	4	+4	7
40	Kenya W	6	+3	7
41	Iran U20 W	3	+2	7
42	Scotland U17 W	4	+2	7
43	Brazil U20 W	5	0	7
44	Portugal U20 W	5	−1	7
45	Solomon Islands W	4	−2	7
46	Senegal W	6	−3	7
47	Ethiopia W	2	+26	6
48	Romania U19 W	2	+12	6
49	Georgia U19 W	2	+8	6
50	Montenegro U19 W	2	+6	6
51	Denmark U19 W	3	+5	6
52	Bermuda W	2	+5	6
53	Kyrgyz Republic W	4	+4	6
54	Japan W	4	+4	6
55	Austria U19 W	2	+4	6
56	Chile U20 W	2	+4	6
57	Cook Islands W	2	+4	6
58	Uzbekistan W	4	+3	6
59	Finland U23 W	3	+3	6
60	Austria U17 W	2	+3	6
61	Haiti W	2	+3	6
62	Czech Republic U17 W	3	+2	6
63	Finland U18 W	2	+2	6
64	Netherlands U23 W	6	+1	6
65	Italy U17 W	4	+1	6
66	Jordan W	3	+1	6
67	Thailand U20 W	3	+1	6
68	Cameroon W	3	+1	6
69	Portugal U17 W	3	+1	6
70	Mexico W	3	0	6
71	Mauritania W	3	−1	6
72	Hong Kong W	3	−1	6
73	Portugal U23 W	4	−1	6
74	Germany U19 W	4	−1	6
75	Benin W	7	−3	6
76	Chile W	3	−3	6
77	Malta U19 W	4	−5	6
78	France U23 W	6	−5	6
79	Zambia W	7	−7	6
80	Fiji W	7	−7	6
81	Mexico U20 W	6	−8	6
82	Mexico U23 W	3	+3	5
83	Portugal U19 W	3	+2	5
84	USA U23 W	3	+1	5
85	Scotland U19 W	3	+1	5
86	England U17 W	4	0	5
87	Norway U23 W	5	−1	5
88	Morocco U17 W	4	−4	5
89	Tanzania W	6	−6	5
90	Cambodia W	2	+5	4
91	Vietnam U20 W	2	+4	4
92	Switzerland U19 W	2	+2	4
93	Bosnia & Herzegovina U19 W	2	+2	4
94	Turkey U18 W	2	+2	4
95	Finland U17 W	2	+1	4
96	Uruguay W	2	+1	4
97	Venezuela W	2	+1	4
98	Argentina U17 W	2	+1	4
99	France U19 W	2	+1	4
100	Japan U20 W	2	+1	4
101	Nigeria U20 W	2	+1	4
102	Serbia U19 W	2	+1	4
103	Colombia U20 W	2	+1	4
104	Jamaica W	2	+1	4
105	Norway U17 W	2	+1	4
106	Canada W U17	3	0	4
107	Portugal U18 W	4	−1	4
108	Uruguay U20 W	4	−3	4
109	Burkina Faso W	6	−6	4
110	Indonesia W	4	−6	4
111	Bhutan W	1	+7	3
112	Pakistan W	3	+5	3
113	Congo DR W	2	+4	3
114	Czech Republic U23 W	2	+3	3
115	Bangladesh U20 W	1	+2	3
116	Metalist 1925 W	1	+2	3
117	Netherlands U17 W	1	+2	3
118	Turkey U19 W	2	+1	3
119	France U20 W	1	+1	3
120	Morocco U23 W	1	+1	3
121	Norway U19 W	2	+1	3
122	Armenia W	1	+1	3
123	Palestine W	2	+1	3
124	Philippines W	2	+1	3
125	Poland U20 W	2	+1	3
126	Csikszereda MC W	1	+1	3
127	San Diego Wave W	1	+1	3
128	Iceland U19 W	2	0	3
129	Kyrgyzstan W	3	0	3
130	Mali W	4	−1	3
131	Zimbabwe W	2	−1	3
132	Italy U19 W	4	−1	3
133	Denmark U23 W	4	−2	3
134	Denmark U17 W	2	−2	3
135	Sweden U19 W	2	−2	3
136	Azerbaijan U19 W	2	−3	3
137	Poland U17 W	4	−3	3
138	Finland U19 W	3	−3	3
139	Singapore W	2	−3	3
140	Nepal U19 W	3	−4	3
141	Netherlands U19 W	3	−5	3
142	Wales U19 W	4	−7	3
143	Vietnam W	5	−13	3
144	Poland U19 W	2	0	2
145	Germany U17 W	3	−1	2
146	Mexico U17 W	4	−2	2
147	Switzerland U17 W	5	−7	2
148	América W	1	0	1
149	Cyprus W	1	0	1
150	Faroe Islands W	1	0	1
151	Greece W	1	0	1
152	Italy U20 W	1	0	1
153	Moldova W	1	0	1
154	Croatia U19 W	1	0	1
155	Spartak Moskva W	1	0	1
156	Tajikistan W	1	0	1
157	UAE W	1	0	1
158	Benin U20 W	2	−1	1
159	Ecuador W	2	−1	1
160	Hungary U17 W	2	−1	1
161	South Africa U17 W	2	−1	1
162	Ecuador U20 W	2	−1	1
163	Greece U19 W	2	−1	1
164	Myanmar W	2	−1	1
165	New Zealand W	2	−1	1
166	Panama W	2	−1	1
167	Belgium U19 W	3	−2	1
168	Republic of Ireland U19 W	2	−2	1
169	Slovenia U19 W	2	−2	1
170	Uzbekistan U18 W	2	−2	1
171	Namibia W	2	−3	1
172	Scotland U23 W	3	−5	1
173	South Korea W	3	−6	1
174	Czech Republic U19 W	4	−6	1
175	Korea Republic U20 W	4	−6	1
176	Hungary U19 W	3	−8	1
177	Costa Rica W	3	−9	1
178	Cape Verde W	4	−11	1
179	Malawi W	6	−12	1
180	Ukraine U19 W	3	−12	1
181	American Samoa W	1	−1	0
182	Belgium U17 W	1	−1	0
183	Ghana U20 W	1	−1	0
184	Schlieren W	1	−1	0
185	Hertha Berlin W	1	−1	0
186	Norway U18 W	2	−2	0
187	Equatorial Guinea W	1	−2	0
188	Albion San Diego W	1	−2	0
189	France U17 W	1	−2	0
190	Zvezda Perm W	1	−2	0
191	Malaysia W	2	−3	0
192	Comoros W	2	−3	0
193	Dominican Republic W	1	−3	0
194	Argentina U20 W	2	−4	0
195	Guatemala W	1	−4	0
196	Romania U23 W	1	−4	0
197	Afghanistan W	2	−4	0
198	Chile U17 W	2	−4	0
199	Estonia W	1	−4	0
200	Sri Lanka W	1	−4	0
201	Perth Azzurri W	1	−5	0
202	Costa Rica U20 W	2	−5	0
203	Belize W	2	−5	0
204	Perth RedStar W	1	−5	0
205	Peru W	2	−5	0
206	Cyprus U19 W	2	−6	0
207	Jordan U20 W	3	−6	0
208	Belgium U23 W	5	−7	0
209	Macau W	1	−7	0
210	Wales U17 W	2	−7	0
211	Laos W	2	−8	0
212	Lesotho W	2	−8	0
213	Armenia U19 W	2	−8	0
214	Paraguay W	3	−8	0
215	Tajikistan U20 W	3	−10	0
216	Saudi Arabia U20 W	3	−10	0
217	New Caledonia U20 W	1	−11	0
218	Bahrain W	3	−12	0
219	New Caledonia W	6	−16	0
220	Bhutan U19 W	3	−21	0
221	Seychelles W	2	−26	0
222	Turks and Caicos Islands W	3	−28	0