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Brazil W v Argentina W

Brazil W
2–2Full time
Argentina W

Friendlies Women · WED 14 OCT · Arena Pernambuco

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 03:00
Brazil W 2–2 Argentina W BRAZIL W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Brazil W win93%
The market said78%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.766
The market’s Brier score1.338

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 42 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Brazil W win at 93%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Brazil W 93% before kick-off, 92% now. 0–0 · 92–6–2
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Brazil W v Argentina W
  4. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Brazil W 1–0 Argentina W
  5. 20′Brazil W ahead on 13′ through Bia Zaneratto. 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–1
  6. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Argentina W
  7. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 25' C. Ongaro · Argentina W
  8. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Brazil W 2–0 Argentina W · Bia Zaneratto
  9. 30′Gio Garbelini scores for Brazil W on 28′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  10. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Brazil W 2–1 Argentina W
  11. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Argentina W
  12. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' F. Bonsegundo · Argentina W
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Brazil W 2–1 Argentina W
  14. 46′35′ and it is 2–1: D. Falfan on the scoresheet for Argentina W. 2–1 · 95–4–1
  15. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Argentina W · On: S. Dominguez · Off: M. Gimenez
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Argentina W · On: J. Morcillo · Off: C. Ongaro
  17. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 25' C. Ongaro · Argentina W
  18. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 41' F. Bonsegundo · Argentina W
  19. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Brazil W
  20. 54′We said Brazil W at 93%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 71%. 2–2 · 71–24–5
  21. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Brazil W 2–2 Argentina W · D. Falfan
  22. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Brazil W win: 93% at kick-off, 71% now
  23. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Isabela · Brazil W
  24. 56′Argentina W level it on 55′ through F. Bonsegundo. 2–2. 2–2 · 70–25–5
  25. 57′🟥 RED CARD · 57' Argentina W
  26. 57′🟥 RED CARD · 58' Argentina W
  27. 58′Argentina W are down to ten from 58′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–2 · 68–27–5
  28. 58′🟥 RED CARD · 58' S. Dominguez · Argentina W
  29. 60′We said Brazil W at 93%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 66%. 2–2 · 66–29–5
  30. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Brazil W · On: Mariza · Off: Tayla
  31. 63′We said Brazil W at 93%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 62%. 2–2 · 62–32–5
  32. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Brazil W · On: Marilia · Off: Gio Garbelini
  33. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Brazil W · On: Isa Haas · Off: Tarciane
  34. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Brazil W · On: Geyse · Off: Priscila
  35. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Brazil W win: 93% at kick-off, 62% now
  36. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Brazil W · On: Duda Sampaio · Off: Isabela Corrected
  37. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Brazil W · On: Tamara Bolt · Off: Kaylane Corrected
  38. 67′We said Brazil W at 93%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 57%. 2–2 · 57–37–5
  39. 71′We said Brazil W at 93%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 51%. 2–2 · 51–43–5
  40. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Brazil W win: 93% at kick-off, 51% now
  41. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Argentina W
  42. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' A. Cometti · Argentina W
  43. 74′We said Brazil W at 93%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 2–2 · 46–49–5
  44. 76′We said Brazil W at 93%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 2–2 · 42–53–5
  45. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Brazil W win: 93% at kick-off, 42% now
  46. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Brazil W win 42%)
  47. 78′We said Brazil W at 93%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 2–2 · 38–58–4
  48. 79′The goal count is tracking the 4.4 we expected. 2–2 · 35–60–4
  49. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Brazil W · On: Jaqueline Ribeiro · Off: Kerolin
  50. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Brazil W · On: Carol Gil · Off: Raissa Bahia
  51. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Argentina W · On: M. Pereyra · Off: D. Ippolito
  52. 82′We said Brazil W at 93%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 2–2 · 28–69–3
  53. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Brazil W win: 93% at kick-off, 28% now
  54. 84′We said Brazil W at 93%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 2–2 · 22–75–3
  55. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Brazil W win: 93% at kick-off, 22% now
  56. 86′We said Brazil W at 93%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–79–2
  57. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Argentina W · On: P. Gramaglia · Off: A. Holzheier
  58. 87′Argentina W level it on 55′ through F. Bonsegundo. 2–2. 2–2 · 17–81–2
  59. 90′Argentina W are down to ten from 58′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–2 · 12–87–2
  60. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Brazil W win: 93% at kick-off, 12% now
  61. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Brazil W · On: Luany · Off: Jhonson
  62. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Brazil W · On: Clarinha · Off: Bia Zaneratto
  63. 96′2–2 at the end. Our 93% on Brazil W misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
  64. FTFULL TIME Brazil W 2–2 Argentina W
  65. FTBrazil W 2–2 Argentina W · Brazil W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Brazil W v Argentina WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 00:05 · locked at kick-off

Brazil W win93%
Draw5%
Argentina W win3%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 00:30

VenueArena Pernambuco

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Brazil W

Argentina W

3Days since last match3
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Brazil W9+1318
213Argentina W1−20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brazil w winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 00:05 · locked at kick-off
93% The market78%
Us93%
Market78%

We make Brazil W a 93% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.8–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Brazil W v Argentina W3.84 – 0.56
Last six in Friendlies WomenW5 D0 L1 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 18 v 06 v 213
The market · Brazil W win78% · ours 93%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
75%80%85%90%95% 9 OCT 06:2313 OCT 05:55
Our probability · brazil w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 89%, 93% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Brazil W win93%78%+15
Draw5%15%−10
Argentina W win3%7%−4
Over 2.5 goals82%62%+20
Both teams to score42%43%−1
Over 1.5 goals93%82%+11
Over 3.5 goals64%41%+23
Brazil W or draw97%93%+4
Brazil W clean sheet57%––
Argentina W clean sheet2%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 11.6%
0123450 1 5.1 2.2 2 9.0 5.1 3 11.6 6.5 4 11.1 6.3 5 8.6 4.8
under 2% 5% 12%+Brazil W down, Argentina W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting4.60
Over 2.55 of 5
Both scored4 of 5
Last meetingsBRA 3–1 ARG · BRA 5–1 ARG · BRA 4–0 ARG · BRA 4–1 ARG

Form · last six in Friendlies Women

BRAZIL W

WWWWLW5–1 · 6–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–1

ARGENTINA W

WWDDWL1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–3

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Morocco W11+2125
2Ivory Coast W9+2922
3Saudi Arabia W10+1922
4Russia W8+1419
5India W12−219
6Brazil W9+1318
7England U20 W9+1517
8United States W U179+1417
9Sweden U23 W8+717
10Germany U23 W8+617
11USA U19 W7+1016
12Russia U19 W7+814
13Papua New Guinea W5+1313
14Ghana W5+1313
15USA U18 W4+2612
16USA W7+912
17Japan U175+712
18Nigeria W5+612
19Germany U19 W6+512
20United States U20 W6+711
21Norway U23 W7+411
22Egypt W8−111
23Uzbekistan U20 W10−311
24Sweden U18 W7−511
25Canada W6+1010
26Thailand W4+710
27El Salvador W5+510
28Italy U23 W5+310
29England U23 W5+310
30Algeria W6+210
31Bangladesh U19 W4+149
32Spain U20 W3+129
33India U17 W4+119
34China W5+89
35Japan W5+89
36Australia W5+69
37Netherlands U23 W7+49
38Chile W4+49
39Austria U19 W4+39
40South Africa W4−19
41Botswana W4+68
42Vanuatu W5+48
43Scotland U19 W4+38
44Tunisia W4+28
45Morocco U20 W4+67
46Canada U20 W4+47
47Kenya W6+37
48Iran U20 W3+27
49Scotland U17 W4+27
50Jamaica W3+27
51Uzbekistan W6+17
52Brazil U20 W507
53Portugal U20 W5−17
54Solomon Islands W4−27
55Senegal W6−37
56Portugal U23 W6−47
57France U23 W7−57
58Ethiopia W2+266
59Romania U19 W2+126
60Georgia U19 W2+86
61Montenegro U19 W2+66
62Denmark U19 W3+56
63Norway U19 W3+56
64Bermuda W2+56
65Kyrgyz Republic W4+46
66Chile U20 W2+46
67Cook Islands W2+46
68Austria U17 W2+36
69Czech Republic U17 W3+26
70Finland U23 W4+26
71Finland U18 W2+26
72Italy U17 W4+16
73Jordan W3+16
74Thailand U20 W3+16
75Cameroon W3+16
76Portugal U17 W3+16
77Mauritania W3−16
78Haiti W3−16
79Hong Kong W3−16
80Mexico W4−16
81Benin W7−36
82Malta U19 W4−56
83Zambia W7−76
84Fiji W7−76
85Mexico U20 W6−86
86Mexico U23 W3+35
87Poland U19 W3+35
88Portugal U19 W3+25
89USA U23 W3+15
90England U17 W405
91Morocco U17 W4−45
92Indonesia W5−65
93Tanzania W6−65
94Cambodia W2+54
95Faroe Islands W3+44
96Vietnam U20 W2+44
97Switzerland U19 W2+24
98Bosnia & Herzegovina U19 W2+24
99Turkey U18 W2+24
100Denmark W2+14
101Turkey U19 W3+14
102Finland U17 W2+14
103Uruguay W2+14
104Argentina U17 W2+14
105France U19 W2+14
106Japan U20 W2+14
107Latvia U19 W2+14
108Palestine W3+14
109Armenia W2+14
110Nigeria U20 W2+14
111Colombia U20 W2+14
112Norway U17 W2+14
113Canada W U17304
114Venezuela W304
115Greece U19 W304
116Moldova W304
117Croatia U19 W3−14
118Portugal U18 W4−14
119Serbia U19 W4−24
120Finland U19 W4−34
121Slovenia U19 W4−34
122Uruguay U20 W4−34
123Burkina Faso W6−64
124France W1+93
125Bhutan W1+73
126Pakistan W3+53
127Congo DR W2+43
128Liechtenstein W1+33
129Czechia U23 W3+23
130Germany W1+23
131Spain U19 W1+23
132Bangladesh U20 W1+23
133Metalist 1925 W1+23
134Netherlands U17 W1+23
135Spain W1+23
136France U20 W1+13
137Montenegro W1+13
138Morocco U23 W1+13
139Poland U20 W2+13
140Colombia W1+13
141Csikszereda MC W1+13
142Malta W1+13
143San Diego Wave W1+13
144Iceland U19 W203
145Kyrgyzstan W303
146Philippines W303
147Georgia W203
148Mali W4−13
149Zimbabwe W2−13
150Denmark U23 W4−23
151Denmark U17 W2−23
152Azerbaijan U19 W2−33
153Poland U17 W4−33
154Estonia W2−33
155Singapore W2−33
156Paraguay W4−43
157Andorra W2−43
158Jordan U20 W4−43
159Nepal U19 W3−43
160Peru W3−43
161Sweden U19 W3−43
162Italy U19 W5−53
163Netherlands U19 W4−63
164Wales U19 W5−83
165Vietnam W5−133
166Germany U17 W3−12
167Belgium U19 W4−22
168Mexico U17 W4−22
169Switzerland U17 W5−72
170América W101
171Cyprus W101
172Greece W101
173Italy U20 W101
174Kosovo U19 W101
175Lebanon W101
176North Macedonia U19 W101
177Puerto Rico W U17101
178Slovakia U19 W101
179Spartak Moskva W101
180Tajikistan W101
181UAE W101
182Benin U20 W2−11
183Ecuador W2−11
184Hungary U17 W2−11
185Estonia U19 W2−11
186South Africa U17 W2−11
187Ecuador U20 W2−11
188Myanmar W2−11
189New Zealand W2−11
190Panama W2−11
191Republic of Ireland U19 W2−21
192Uzbekistan U18 W2−21
193Belarus U19 W2−31
194Namibia W2−31
195South Korea W3−61
196Czech Republic U19 W4−61
197Korea Republic U20 W4−61
198Belgium U23 W6−71
199Costa Rica W3−91
200Scotland U23 W5−101
201Cape Verde W4−111
202Malawi W6−121
203Hungary U19 W4−121
204Ukraine U19 W3−121
205Bosnia-Herzegovina W1−10
206American Samoa W1−10
207Belgium U17 W1−10
208Ghana U20 W1−10
209Schlieren W1−10
210Hertha Berlin W1−10
211Luxembourg W1−10
212Norway U18 W2−20
213Argentina W1−20
214Equatorial Guinea W1−20
215Albion San Diego W1−20
216France U17 W1−20
217Zvezda Perm W1−20
218Comoros W2−30
219Dominican Republic W1−30
220Gibraltar W1−30
221Argentina U20 W2−40
222Guatemala W1−40
223Romania U23 W1−40
224Afghanistan W2−40
225Chile U17 W2−40
226Sri Lanka W1−40
227Malaysia W3−50
228Perth Azzurri W1−50
229Costa Rica U20 W2−50
230Belize W2−50
231Perth RedStar W1−50
232Cyprus U19 W2−60
233Bolivia W1−70
234Macau W1−70
235Wales U17 W2−70
236Laos W2−80
237Lesotho W2−80
238Armenia U19 W2−80
239Latvia W1−90
240Tajikistan U20 W3−100
241New Caledonia U20 W1−110
242Bahrain W3−120
243Saudi Arabia U20 W4−120
244New Caledonia W6−160
245Bhutan U19 W3−210
246Seychelles W2−260
247Turks and Caicos Islands W3−280

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.