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Model 1.1

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Brazil W v Argentina W

Brazil W
3–1Full time
Argentina W

Friendlies Women · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31
Brazil W 3–1 Argentina W BRAZIL W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Brazil W win93%
The market said77%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.008
The market’s Brier score0.080

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 52 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Brazil W win at 93%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Brazil W was 93% before kick-off and our model makes it 92% now. 0–0 · 92–6–2
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Brazil W v Argentina W
  4. 13′Much as we predicted: Brazil W was 93% before kick-off and our model makes it 90% now. 0–0 · 90–8–3
  5. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Brazil W
  6. 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Brazil W 1–0 Argentina W
  7. 26′⚽ GOAL · 27' Brazil W 1–0 Argentina W
  8. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Brazil W 2–0 Argentina W · Luany
  9. 38′⚽ GOAL · 39' Brazil W 2–0 Argentina W
  10. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Argentina W
  11. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Brazil W 3–0 Argentina W · Geyse
  12. 45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Brazil W 3–0 Argentina W
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Brazil W 3–0 Argentina W
  14. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Brazil W · On: Bruninha · Off: Raissa Bahia
  15. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Brazil W · On: Bruninha · Off: Raissa Bahia
  16. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Brazil W · On: Bruninha · Off: Raissa Bahia
  17. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Brazil W 3–1 Argentina W · Angelina
  18. 50′⚽ GOAL · 51' Brazil W 3–1 Argentina W
  19. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Argentina W
  20. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Argentina W · On: A. Vargas · Off: M. Pereyra
  21. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Brazil W
  22. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Brazil W · On: Tamara Bolt · Off: Bruninha Corrected
  23. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Brazil W · On: Gio Garbelini · Off: Maiara Niehues
  24. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Brazil W · On: Kaylane · Off: Duda Sampaio
  25. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Brazil W · On: Clarinha · Off: Angelina
  26. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Brazil W · On: Jhonson · Off: Taina Maranhao
  27. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Argentina W · On: M. Del Trecco · Off: S. Dominguez
  28. 91′🟥 RED CARD · 91' Brazil W
  29. 91′🟥 RED CARD · 92' Argentina W
  30. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Duda Sampaio · Brazil W
  31. 94′⚽ GOAL · 27' Brazil W 3–1 Argentina W · Luany (assist Angelina)
  32. 94′⚽ GOAL · 39' Brazil W 3–1 Argentina W · Geyse (assist Maiara Niehues)
  33. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 40' M. Pereyra · Argentina W
  34. 94′⚽ GOAL · 46' Brazil W 3–1 Argentina W · Angelina (assist Luany)
  35. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Argentina W · On: C. Dos Santos · Off: E. Stabile
  36. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Brazil W · On: Priscila · Off: Luany
  37. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Brazil W · On: Bruninha · Off: Raissa Bahia
  38. 94′⚽ GOAL · 51' Brazil W 3–1 Argentina W · M. Pereyra (assist D. Ippolito)
  39. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 53' C. Ongaro · Argentina W
  40. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Argentina W · On: A. Sachs · Off: C. Ongaro
  41. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Argentina W · On: A. Vargas · Off: M. Pereyra
  42. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Isa Haas · Brazil W
  43. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Brazil W · On: Tamara Bolt · Off: Bruninha Corrected
  44. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Brazil W · On: Gio Garbelini · Off: Maiara Niehues
  45. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Brazil W · On: Kaylane · Off: Duda Sampaio
  46. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Brazil W · On: Clarinha · Off: Angelina
  47. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Brazil W · On: Jhonson · Off: Taina Maranhao
  48. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Argentina W · On: M. Del Trecco · Off: S. Dominguez
  49. 94′🟥 RED CARD · 92' A. Vargas · Argentina W
  50. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Brazil W · On: Jaqueline Ribeiro · Off: Geyse
  51. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Brazil W · On: Tayla · Off: Isa Haas
  52. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Brazil W · On: Carlinha · Off: Lorena
  53. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Argentina W · On: J. Morcillo · Off: D. Ippolito
  54. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Argentina W · On: C. Ochoa · Off: F. Bonsegundo
  55. FTFULL TIME Brazil W 3–1 Argentina W
  56. FTBrazil W 3–1 Argentina W · Brazil W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Brazil W win93%
Draw5%
Argentina W win3%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Brazil W

Formation not confirmed

1 Lorena

2 Isabela

23 Isa Haas

20 Mariza

6 Raissa Bahia

22 Luany

8 Angelina

5 Duda Sampaio

19 Taina Maranhao

25 Maiara Niehues

17 Geyse

Coach · Jose Ribas Elias Arthur

Substitutes

24 · Carlinha

12 · Thais Lima

28 · Yanne

15 · Carol Gil

4 · Tayla

13 · Bruninha

26 · Kaylane

18 · Marilia

14 · Tamara Bolt

11 · Priscila

7 · Jaqueline Ribeiro

21 · Gio Garbelini

9 · Jhonson

27 · Clarinha

Argentina W

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Esponda

4 A. Reche

8 D. Falfan

6 A. Cometti

3 E. Stabile

16 S. Dominguez

18 C. Ongaro

10 M. Pereyra

15 F. Bonsegundo

20 D. Ippolito

19 A. Holzheier

Coach · German Portanova

Substitutes

1 · A. Alvarez

13 · A. Velasco

2 · A. Sachs

17 · C. Ochoa

14 · M. Gimenez

7 · J. Morcillo

5 · A. Vargas

9 · M. Del Trecco

11 · C. Dos Santos

21 · P. Gramaglia

22 · A. Paz

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Brazil W

Formation not confirmed

1 Lorena

2 Isabela

23 Isa Haas

20 Mariza

6 Raissa Bahia

22 Luany

8 Angelina

5 Duda Sampaio

19 Taina Maranhao

25 Maiara Niehues

17 Geyse

Coach · Jose Ribas Elias Arthur

Substitutes

24 · Carlinha

12 · Thais Lima

28 · Yanne

15 · Carol Gil

4 · Tayla

13 · Bruninha

26 · Kaylane

18 · Marilia

14 · Tamara Bolt

11 · Priscila

7 · Jaqueline Ribeiro

21 · Gio Garbelini

9 · Jhonson

27 · Clarinha

Argentina W

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Esponda

4 A. Reche

8 D. Falfan

6 A. Cometti

3 E. Stabile

16 S. Dominguez

18 C. Ongaro

10 M. Pereyra

15 F. Bonsegundo

20 D. Ippolito

19 A. Holzheier

Coach · German Portanova

Substitutes

1 · A. Alvarez

13 · A. Velasco

2 · A. Sachs

17 · C. Ochoa

14 · M. Gimenez

7 · J. Morcillo

5 · A. Vargas

9 · M. Del Trecco

11 · C. Dos Santos

21 · P. Gramaglia

22 · A. Paz

Our number · brazil w winPublished 10 Oct 20:35
93% The market77%
Us93%
Market77%

We make Brazil W a 93% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.9–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published
75%80%85%90%95% 9 OCT 06:2310 OCT 20:16
Our probability · brazil w win The market, margin stripped

Published at 89%, 93% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Brazil W win93%77%+16
Draw5%15%−11
Argentina W win3%7%−5
Over 2.5 goals82%61%+21
Both teams to score42%41%0
Over 1.5 goals93%81%+12
Over 3.5 goals65%40%+25
Brazil W or draw97%93%+5
Brazil W clean sheet57%––
Argentina W clean sheet2%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 11.4%
0123450 1 5.0 2.1 2 8.8 4.9 3 11.4 6.4 4 11.2 6.3 5 8.7 4.9
under 2% 5% 12%+Brazil W down, Argentina W across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting4.75
Over 2.54 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsBRA 5–1 ARG · BRA 4–0 ARG · BRA 4–1 ARG · BRA 3–1 ARG

Form · last six in Friendlies Women

BRAZIL W

LWWWWL0–1 · 5–1 · 6–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

ARGENTINA W

WWWDDW8–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ivory Coast W9+2922
2Saudi Arabia W10+1922
3Morocco W9+1921
4India W11+619
5England U20 W9+1517
6United States W U179+1417
7USA U19 W7+1016
8Russia W7+616
9Brazil W8+1115
10Papua New Guinea W5+1313
11Ghana W5+1313
12Sweden U23 W6+613
13Germany U23 W6+413
14USA U18 W4+2612
15USA W6+1112
16Japan U175+712
17Nigeria W5+612
18United States U20 W6+711
19Egypt W8−111
20Uzbekistan U20 W10−311
21Canada W5+1110
22El Salvador W4+910
23Thailand W4+710
24Russia U19 W5+510
25England U23 W4+510
26Algeria W6+210
27Sweden U18 W6−510
28Bangladesh U19 W4+149
29Spain U20 W3+129
30India U17 W4+119
31China W5+89
32Australia W5+69
33Italy U23 W4+39
34South Africa W4−19
35Botswana W4+68
36Vanuatu W5+48
37Tunisia W4+28
38Morocco U20 W4+67
39Canada U20 W4+47
40Kenya W6+37
41Iran U20 W3+27
42Scotland U17 W4+27
43Brazil U20 W507
44Portugal U20 W5−17
45Solomon Islands W4−27
46Senegal W6−37
47Ethiopia W2+266
48Romania U19 W2+126
49Georgia U19 W2+86
50Montenegro U19 W2+66
51Denmark U19 W3+56
52Bermuda W2+56
53Kyrgyz Republic W4+46
54Japan W4+46
55Austria U19 W2+46
56Chile U20 W2+46
57Cook Islands W2+46
58Uzbekistan W4+36
59Finland U23 W3+36
60Austria U17 W2+36
61Haiti W2+36
62Czech Republic U17 W3+26
63Finland U18 W2+26
64Netherlands U23 W6+16
65Italy U17 W4+16
66Jordan W3+16
67Thailand U20 W3+16
68Cameroon W3+16
69Portugal U17 W3+16
70Mexico W306
71Mauritania W3−16
72Hong Kong W3−16
73Portugal U23 W4−16
74Germany U19 W4−16
75Benin W7−36
76Chile W3−36
77Malta U19 W4−56
78France U23 W6−56
79Zambia W7−76
80Fiji W7−76
81Mexico U20 W6−86
82Mexico U23 W3+35
83Portugal U19 W3+25
84USA U23 W3+15
85Scotland U19 W3+15
86England U17 W405
87Norway U23 W5−15
88Morocco U17 W4−45
89Tanzania W6−65
90Cambodia W2+54
91Faroe Islands W2+54
92Vietnam U20 W2+44
93Switzerland U19 W2+24
94Bosnia & Herzegovina U19 W2+24
95Turkey U18 W2+24
96Finland U17 W2+14
97Uruguay W2+14
98Venezuela W2+14
99Argentina U17 W2+14
100France U19 W2+14
101Japan U20 W2+14
102Moldova W2+14
103Nigeria U20 W2+14
104Serbia U19 W2+14
105Colombia U20 W2+14
106Jamaica W2+14
107Norway U17 W2+14
108Canada W U17304
109Portugal U18 W4−14
110Uruguay U20 W4−34
111Burkina Faso W6−64
112Indonesia W4−64
113Bhutan W1+73
114Pakistan W3+53
115Congo DR W2+43
116Czechia U23 W3+23
117Germany W1+23
118Bangladesh U20 W1+23
119Metalist 1925 W1+23
120Netherlands U17 W1+23
121Turkey U19 W2+13
122France U20 W1+13
123Montenegro W1+13
124Morocco U23 W1+13
125Norway U19 W2+13
126Armenia W1+13
127Palestine W2+13
128Poland U20 W2+13
129Csikszereda MC W1+13
130Malta W1+13
131San Diego Wave W1+13
132Iceland U19 W203
133Kyrgyzstan W303
134Philippines W303
135Mali W4−13
136Zimbabwe W2−13
137Italy U19 W4−13
138Denmark U23 W4−23
139Denmark U17 W2−23
140Sweden U19 W2−23
141Azerbaijan U19 W2−33
142Poland U17 W4−33
143Estonia W2−33
144Finland U19 W3−33
145Singapore W2−33
146Nepal U19 W3−43
147Peru W3−43
148Netherlands U19 W3−53
149Wales U19 W4−73
150Vietnam W5−133
151Poland U19 W202
152Germany U17 W3−12
153Mexico U17 W4−22
154Switzerland U17 W5−72
155América W101
156Cyprus W101
157Denmark W101
158Greece W101
159Italy U20 W101
160Croatia U19 W101
161Spartak Moskva W101
162Tajikistan W101
163UAE W101
164Benin U20 W2−11
165Ecuador W2−11
166Hungary U17 W2−11
167South Africa U17 W2−11
168Ecuador U20 W2−11
169Greece U19 W2−11
170Myanmar W2−11
171New Zealand W2−11
172Panama W2−11
173Belgium U19 W3−21
174Republic of Ireland U19 W2−21
175Slovenia U19 W2−21
176Uzbekistan U18 W2−21
177Namibia W2−31
178Scotland U23 W3−51
179South Korea W3−61
180Czech Republic U19 W4−61
181Korea Republic U20 W4−61
182Hungary U19 W3−81
183Costa Rica W3−91
184Cape Verde W4−111
185Malawi W6−121
186Ukraine U19 W3−121
187Bosnia-Herzegovina W1−10
188American Samoa W1−10
189Belgium U17 W1−10
190Ghana U20 W1−10
191Schlieren W1−10
192Georgia W1−10
193Hertha Berlin W1−10
194Luxembourg W1−10
195Norway U18 W2−20
196Equatorial Guinea W1−20
197Albion San Diego W1−20
198France U17 W1−20
199Zvezda Perm W1−20
200Comoros W2−30
201Dominican Republic W1−30
202Argentina U20 W2−40
203Guatemala W1−40
204Romania U23 W1−40
205Afghanistan W2−40
206Chile U17 W2−40
207Sri Lanka W1−40
208Malaysia W3−50
209Perth Azzurri W1−50
210Costa Rica U20 W2−50
211Andorra W1−50
212Belize W2−50
213Perth RedStar W1−50
214Cyprus U19 W2−60
215Jordan U20 W3−60
216Belgium U23 W5−70
217Macau W1−70
218Wales U17 W2−70
219Laos W2−80
220Lesotho W2−80
221Armenia U19 W2−80
222Paraguay W3−80
223Tajikistan U20 W3−100
224Saudi Arabia U20 W3−100
225New Caledonia U20 W1−110
226Bahrain W3−120
227New Caledonia W6−160
228Bhutan U19 W3−210
229Seychelles W2−260
230Turks and Caicos Islands W3−280

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.