Vasco DA Gama v Boca Juniors prediction · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 04:05

Vasco DA Gama 1–3 Boca Juniors BOCA JUNIORS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Boca Juniors win~~38%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.578

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.664

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Boca Juniors win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Boca Juniors was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
1′KICK-OFF Vasco DA Gama v Boca Juniors
4′Boca Juniors ahead on 4′ through Lautaro Di Lollo. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–20–67
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Vasco DA Gama 0–1 Boca Juniors · Lautaro Di Lollo
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Boca Juniors win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
5′We published Boca Juniors at 38%. Our model now makes it 67%. 0–1 · 13–20–67
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Boca Juniors win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
26′We published Boca Juniors at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–21–70
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 9–21–70
34′We published Boca Juniors at 38%. Our model now makes it 92%. 0–2 · 2–7–92
34′Miguel Merentiel scores for Boca Juniors on 34′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–92
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Vasco DA Gama 0–2 Boca Juniors
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Boca Juniors win: 38% at kick-off, 92% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Jorge Nicolás Figal · Boca Juniors
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Thiago Mendes · Vasco DA Gama
42′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Leandro Paredes · Boca Juniors
45′HALF-TIME Vasco DA Gama 0–2 Boca Juniors
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vasco DA Gama · On: Brenner · Off: David
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Vasco DA Gama · On: Marino Hinestroza · Off: Adson
46′SECOND HALF Vasco DA Gama 0–2 Boca Juniors
51′We published Boca Juniors at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Boca Juniors · On: Leandro Paredes · Off: Rodrigo Battaglia
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Vasco DA Gama · On: Jose Luis Rodriguez · Off: Paulo Henrique
66′66′: Jose Luis Rodriguez on the scoresheet for Vasco DA Gama, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 3–17–81
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Vasco DA Gama 1–2 Boca Juniors · Jose Luis Rodriguez
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Boca Juniors win: 38% at kick-off, 81% now
68′We published Boca Juniors at 38%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–2 · 2–16–82
68′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–16–82
73′We published Boca Juniors at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Boca Juniors · On: Alan Velasco · Off: Leonel Flores
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Boca Juniors win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Boca Juniors · On: Enner Valencia · Off: Miguel Merentiel
87′11 shots for Vasco DA Gama, 6 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
89′Boca Juniors ahead on 88′ through Leandro Paredes. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
89′We published Boca Juniors at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Vasco DA Gama 1–3 Boca Juniors · Leandro Paredes
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Boca Juniors win: 38% at kick-off, over 99% now
90′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Vasco DA Gama · On: Claudio Spinelli · Off: Alan Lescano
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Boca Juniors · On: Ayrton Enrique Costa · Off: Sebastián Villa
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Alan Velasco · Boca Juniors
FTFULL TIME Vasco DA Gama 1–3 Boca Juniors
FTVasco DA Gama 1–3 Boca Juniors · Boca Juniors win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Boca Juniors are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vasco DA Gama 33%, draw 29%, Boca Juniors 38%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Vasco DA Gama v Boca JuniorsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Vasco DA Gama win33%

Draw29%

Boca Juniors win38%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 01:30

RoundSemi-finals

VenueEstádio do Maracanã

RefereeJesus Valenzuela

Line-ups

Vasco DA Gama

4-1-4-1

Boca Juniors

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vasco DA Gama

Boca Juniors

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Vasco DA Gama	6	+4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vasco DA Gama

4-1-4-1

1 Léo Jardim

96 Paulo Henrique

4 A. Saldivia

30 Robert Renan

66 Cuiabano

5 S. Sosa

28 Adson

22 A. Lescano

23 Thiago Mendes

7 David

19 Bruno Duarte

Coach · Pedro Emanuel

Substitutes

18 · M. Hinestroza

13 · Daniel Fuzato

55 · Gabriel Pereira

6 · Lucas Piton

17 · Nuno Moreira

8 · Jair

2 · J. Rodríguez

83 · Ramon Rique

20 · Brenner

77 · C. Spinelli

3 · Tchê Tchê

43 · Lucas Freitas

Boca Juniors

4-2-3-1

1 Á. Montero

17 L. Lozano

2 L. Di Lollo

42 F. Herrera

3 L. Blanco

6 R. Battaglia

18 M. Delgado

22 S. Villa

25 S. Ascacíbar

19 L. Flores

16 M. Merentiel

Coach · R. Arruabarrena

Substitutes

30 · E. Valencia

53 · Joaquín Ruíz

11 · Á. Romero

5 · L. Paredes

7 · C. Palacios

24 · D. Gorosito

4 · N. Figal

32 · A. Costa

12 · L. Brey

27 · M. Braida

15 · W. Alarcón

20 · A. Velasco

Our number · boca juniors winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

38% The market33%

Us38%

~~Market~~33%

We make Boca Juniors a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vasco DA Gama v Boca Juniors~~1.11 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in CONMEBOL Sudamericana this season · since 29 July~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~The market · Boca Juniors win~~33% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Boca Juniors win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vasco DA Gama win	33%	35%	−2
Draw	29%	32%	−3
Boca Juniors win	38%	33%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	41%	36%	+5
Both teams to score	47%	44%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	62%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	20%	18%	+2
Vasco DA Gama or draw	62%	67%	−5
Vasco DA Gama clean sheet	30%	–	–
Boca Juniors clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.3 11.5 7.2 2.9 1 10.5 13.6 8.0 3.2 2 6.0 7.3 4.4 3 2.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vasco DA Gama down, Boca Juniors across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 409,477 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 20 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Vasco DA Gama play in the Brazilian Serie A, Boca Juniors in Liga Profesional Argentina.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Vasco DA Gama are at home.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Vasco DA Gama, 1.21 for Boca Juniors. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 01:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BOC 0–1 VAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in CONMEBOL Sudamericana this season · since 29 July

VASCO DA GAMA

WDWDWW1–0 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

BOCA JUNIORS

LWWWDL0–1 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Group G

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpia	6	+4	13
2	Vasco DA Gama	6	+4	10
3	A. Italiano	6	−2	7
4	Barracas Central	6	−6	3

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Vasco DA Gama v Boca Juniors

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Vasco DA Gama

Boca Juniors

Rest & schedule

Vasco DA Gama

Boca Juniors

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Vasco DA Gama

Boca Juniors

Match statistics

Line-ups

Vasco DA Gama

Boca Juniors

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in CONMEBOL Sudamericana this season · since 29 July

The table