Home › Football › CONMEBOL Sudamericana › Atletico Torque v Atletico-MG
Back

Atletico Torque v Atletico-MG
Atletico Torque
Atletico-MGCONMEBOL Sudamericana · WED 21 OCT · Estadio Centenario
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico-MG win at 49%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Atletico-MG was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 25–26–49
- 1′KICK-OFF Atletico Torque v Atletico-MG
- 21′7 shots for Atletico Torque, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 25–30–46
- 28′Atletico Torque have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 24–32–44
- 40′Atletico Torque have had 12 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 23–36–41
- 41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira · Atletico-MG
- 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Atletico-MG win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
- 45′SECOND HALF Atletico Torque 0–0 Atletico-MG
- 48′HALF-TIME Atletico Torque 0–0 Atletico-MG
- 49′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 22–41–37
- 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Atletico-MG win 39%)
- 52′17 shots for Atletico Torque, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 21–43–36
- 53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Pablo Siles · Atletico Torque
- 55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 21–45–35
- 56′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 21–45–34
- 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Alan Franco · Atletico-MG
- 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Atletico Torque · On: Alexander Nahuel da Silva Rivero · Off: Pablo Siles
- 61′Atletico Torque have had 20 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 19–50–31
- 64′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 18–53–29
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Atletico-MG win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atletico-MG · On: Mamady Cisse · Off: Kevin Castaño
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atletico-MG · On: Natanael Moreira Milouski · Off: Reinier Jesus Carvalho
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atletico-MG · On: Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza · Off: Victor Hugo Gomes Silva
- 71′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 15–61–24
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Atletico Torque · On: Ezequiel Busquets · Off: Facundo Silvera
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Atletico Torque · On: Luka Andrade · Off: Franco Pizzichillo
- 74′Atletico Torque have had 24 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 14–65–21
- 76′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 12–68–19
- 76′A red card for Atletico-MG on 76′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 12–68–19
- 76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović · Atletico-MG
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Atletico-MG win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
- 76′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Alan Franco · Atletico-MG
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Atletico-MG · On: Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa · Off: Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte
- 81′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 9–77–14
- 82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Natanael Moreira Milouski · Atletico-MG
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atletico-MG · On: Igor Gomes · Off: Tomás Cuello
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atletico Torque · On: Juan Quintana · Off: Salomón Rodríguez
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atletico Torque · On: Sebastián Cáceres Carranza · Off: Diogo Guzmán
- 85′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
- 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Atletico-MG win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
- 88′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 1–0 · 93–6–0
- 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Atletico Torque 1–0 Atletico-MG
- 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Atletico Torque win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 89%)
- 89′Kevin Isaias·Silva scores for Atletico Torque on 89′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–0
- 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Atletico Torque 2–0 Atletico-MG
- 94′90′: Gary Kagelmacher on the scoresheet for Atletico Torque, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Atletico Torque 2–0 Atletico-MG
- FTAtletico Torque 2–0 Atletico-MG · Atletico-MG win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Atletico-MG are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Torque 25%, draw 25%, Atletico-MG 49%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Atletico Torque win25%
Atletico-MG win49%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 23:00
RoundSemi-finals
VenueEstadio Centenario
RefereeCristian Garay
Match timeline
All events
Atletico TorqueMIN
Atletico-MGEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Atletico Torque
4-3-3
Atletico-MG
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Atletico Torque
Atletico-MG
Last match: 18 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División
Last match: 17 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Atletico Torque
4-3-3
1 F. Torgnascioli
17 E. Agüero
3 K. Silva
24 G. Kagelmacher
26 F. Silvera
20 G. Montes
8 P. Siles
19 D. Guzmán
5 F. Pizzichillo
9 S. Rodríguez
10 E. Obregón
Coach · Marcelo Méndez
Substitutes
15 · E. Busquets
7 · Luka Andrade
32 · S. Cáceres
23 · L. Duré
2 · B. Gutierrez
18 · R. Lecchini
16 · ignacio molina
21 · N. Perez
30 · J. Quintana
13 · G. Rodríguez
27 · J. Tarán
11 · N. da Silva
Atletico-MG
4-2-3-1
1 Gabriel Delfim
21 A. Franco
40 Vitão
13 Lyanco
6 Renan Lodi
8 Maycon
15 K. Castaño
28 T. Cuello
30 Victor Hugo
11 Bernard
19 Reinier
Coach · E. Domínguez
Substitutes
39 · Mamady Cisse
14 · Vitor Hugo
5 · Alexsander
27 · A. Minda
2 · Natanael
36 · K. Pascini
92 · Dudu
31 · Robert
23 · A. Preciado
25 · T. Pérez
17 · Igor Gomes
3 · Léo Duarte
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Atletico Torque
4-3-3
1 F. Torgnascioli
17 E. Agüero
3 K. Silva
24 G. Kagelmacher
26 F. Silvera
20 G. Montes
8 P. Siles
19 D. Guzmán
5 F. Pizzichillo
9 S. Rodríguez
10 E. Obregón
Coach · Marcelo Méndez
Substitutes
15 · E. Busquets
7 · Luka Andrade
32 · S. Cáceres
23 · L. Duré
2 · B. Gutierrez
18 · R. Lecchini
16 · ignacio molina
21 · N. Perez
30 · J. Quintana
13 · G. Rodríguez
27 · J. Tarán
11 · N. da Silva
Atletico-MG
4-2-3-1
1 Gabriel Delfim
21 A. Franco
40 Vitão
13 Lyanco
6 Renan Lodi
8 Maycon
15 K. Castaño
28 T. Cuello
30 Victor Hugo
11 Bernard
19 Reinier
Coach · E. Domínguez
Substitutes
39 · Mamady Cisse
14 · Vitor Hugo
5 · Alexsander
27 · A. Minda
2 · Natanael
36 · K. Pascini
92 · Dudu
31 · Robert
23 · A. Preciado
25 · T. Pérez
17 · Igor Gomes
3 · Léo Duarte
We make Atletico-MG a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 47%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Torque win | 25% | 29% | −4 |
| Draw | 25% | 31% | −6 |
| Atletico-MG win | 49% | 40% | +9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 44% | +7 |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 69% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 25% | +4 |
| Atletico Torque or draw | 51% | 60% | −9 |
| Atletico Torque clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
| Atletico-MG clean sheet | 33% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in CONMEBOL Sudamericana this season · since 26 May
ATLETICO TORQUE
ATLETICO-MG