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Atletico Torque v Atletico-MG

Atletico Torque
2–0Full time
Atletico-MG

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · WED 21 OCT · Estadio Centenario

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30
Atletico Torque 2–0 Atletico-MG ATLETICO-MG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Atletico-MG win49%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.868
The market’s Brier score0.755

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico-MG win at 49%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Atletico-MG was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 25–26–49
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Atletico Torque v Atletico-MG
  4. 21′7 shots for Atletico Torque, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 25–30–46
  5. 28′Atletico Torque have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 24–32–44
  6. 40′Atletico Torque have had 12 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 23–36–41
  7. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira · Atletico-MG
  8. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Atletico-MG win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Atletico Torque 0–0 Atletico-MG
  10. 48′HALF-TIME Atletico Torque 0–0 Atletico-MG
  11. 49′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 22–41–37
  12. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Atletico-MG win 39%)
  13. 52′17 shots for Atletico Torque, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 21–43–36
  14. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Pablo Siles · Atletico Torque
  15. 55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 21–45–35
  16. 56′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 21–45–34
  17. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Alan Franco · Atletico-MG
  18. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Atletico Torque · On: Alexander Nahuel da Silva Rivero · Off: Pablo Siles
  19. 61′Atletico Torque have had 20 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 19–50–31
  20. 64′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 18–53–29
  21. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Atletico-MG win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
  22. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atletico-MG · On: Mamady Cisse · Off: Kevin Castaño
  23. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atletico-MG · On: Natanael Moreira Milouski · Off: Reinier Jesus Carvalho
  24. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atletico-MG · On: Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza · Off: Victor Hugo Gomes Silva
  25. 71′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 15–61–24
  26. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Atletico Torque · On: Ezequiel Busquets · Off: Facundo Silvera
  27. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Atletico Torque · On: Luka Andrade · Off: Franco Pizzichillo
  28. 74′Atletico Torque have had 24 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 14–65–21
  29. 76′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 12–68–19
  30. 76′A red card for Atletico-MG on 76′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 12–68–19
  31. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović · Atletico-MG
  32. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Atletico-MG win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
  33. 76′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Alan Franco · Atletico-MG
  34. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Atletico-MG · On: Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa · Off: Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte
  35. 81′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 9–77–14
  36. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Natanael Moreira Milouski · Atletico-MG
  37. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atletico-MG · On: Igor Gomes · Off: Tomás Cuello
  38. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atletico Torque · On: Juan Quintana · Off: Salomón Rodríguez
  39. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atletico Torque · On: Sebastián Cáceres Carranza · Off: Diogo Guzmán
  40. 85′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
  41. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Atletico-MG win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
  42. 88′We said Atletico-MG at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 1–0 · 93–6–0
  43. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Atletico Torque 1–0 Atletico-MG
  44. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Atletico Torque win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 89%)
  45. 89′Kevin Isaias·Silva scores for Atletico Torque on 89′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–0
  46. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Atletico Torque 2–0 Atletico-MG
  47. 94′90′: Gary Kagelmacher on the scoresheet for Atletico Torque, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  48. FTFULL TIME Atletico Torque 2–0 Atletico-MG
  49. FTAtletico Torque 2–0 Atletico-MG · Atletico-MG win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico-MG are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Torque 25%, draw 25%, Atletico-MG 49%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Torque v Atletico-MGBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Torque win25%
Draw25%
Atletico-MG win49%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 23:00

RoundSemi-finals

VenueEstadio Centenario

RefereeCristian Garay

Line-ups

Atletico Torque

4-3-3

Atletico-MG

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Torque

Atletico-MG

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the Uruguayan Primera División

Last match: 17 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico Torque

4-3-3

1 F. Torgnascioli

17 E. Agüero

3 K. Silva

24 G. Kagelmacher

26 F. Silvera

20 G. Montes

8 P. Siles

19 D. Guzmán

5 F. Pizzichillo

9 S. Rodríguez

10 E. Obregón

Coach · Marcelo Méndez

Substitutes

15 · E. Busquets

7 · Luka Andrade

32 · S. Cáceres

23 · L. Duré

2 · B. Gutierrez

18 · R. Lecchini

16 · ignacio molina

21 · N. Perez

30 · J. Quintana

13 · G. Rodríguez

27 · J. Tarán

11 · N. da Silva

Atletico-MG

4-2-3-1

1 Gabriel Delfim

21 A. Franco

40 Vitão

13 Lyanco

6 Renan Lodi

8 Maycon

15 K. Castaño

28 T. Cuello

30 Victor Hugo

11 Bernard

19 Reinier

Coach · E. Domínguez

Substitutes

39 · Mamady Cisse

14 · Vitor Hugo

5 · Alexsander

27 · A. Minda

2 · Natanael

36 · K. Pascini

92 · Dudu

31 · Robert

23 · A. Preciado

25 · T. Pérez

17 · Igor Gomes

3 · Léo Duarte

Our number · atletico-mg winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 16 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
49% The market40%
Us49%
Market40%

We make Atletico-MG a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Atletico Torque v Atletico-MG1.10 – 1.63
Form · last six in CONMEBOL Sudamericana this season · since 26 MayW3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1
The market · Atletico-MG win40% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 22:46
Our probability · Atletico-MG win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Atletico Torque win25%29%−4
Draw25%31%−6
Atletico-MG win49%40%+9
Over 2.5 goals51%44%+7
Both teams to score54%51%+3
Over 1.5 goals76%69%+7
Over 3.5 goals29%25%+4
Atletico Torque or draw51%60%−9
Atletico Torque clean sheet20%––
Atletico-MG clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%
0123450 6.9 10.2 8.7 4.7 1 6.8 12.1 9.5 5.2 2.1 2 3.9 6.4 5.2 2.9 3 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Torque down, Atletico-MG across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsAtletico-MG 3–0 Atletico Torque

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in CONMEBOL Sudamericana this season · since 26 May

ATLETICO TORQUE

DWWLWL2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–3

ATLETICO-MG

WWDLWW1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 3–0