Atletico-MG v Atletico Torque prediction · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 01:30

Atletico-MG 3–0 Atletico Torque ATLETICO-MG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico-MG win~~61%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.228

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.158

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico-MG win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atletico-MG 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–22–17
1′KICK-OFF Atletico-MG v Atletico Torque
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Atletico-MG 1–0 Atletico Torque
15′GOAL DISALLOWED · 15' Atletico-MG
16′Atletico-MG find the net on 16′. 0–0. 0–0 · 58–25–18
21′We said Atletico-MG at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–5
21′⚽ GOAL · 16' Atletico-MG 1–0 Atletico Torque
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Atletico-MG win: 61% at kick-off, 82% now
22′Atletico-MG find the net on 22′. 0–0. 0–0 · 56–26–18
22′GOAL DISALLOWED · 22' Atletico-MG
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Atletico-MG win: 61% at kick-off, 56% now
32′Atletico-MG have had 7.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 53–30–18
36′Atletico-MG ahead on 37′ through Reinier Jesus Carvalho. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–4
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 82–13–4
36′⚽ GOAL · 22' Atletico-MG 1–0 Atletico Torque · Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Atletico-MG win: 61% at kick-off, 82% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Atletico-MG 2–0 Atletico Torque · Reinier Jesus Carvalho
42′We said Atletico-MG at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
42′Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte scores for Atletico-MG on 42′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Atletico-MG win: 61% at kick-off, 96% now
45′SECOND HALF Atletico-MG 2–0 Atletico Torque
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Pablo Siles · Atletico Torque
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira · Atletico-MG
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Atletico-MG · On: Igor Gomes · Off: Victor Hugo Gomes Silva
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Atletico-MG · On: Thiago Borbas · Off: Reinier Jesus Carvalho
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Atletico-MG · On: Mamady Cisse · Off: Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Atletico-MG 3–0 Atletico Torque · Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Atletico Torque · On: Ezequiel Busquets · Off: Franco Pizzichillo
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Atletico Torque · On: Diogo Guzmán · Off: Pablo Siles
80′80′ and it is 3–0: Thiago Borbas on the scoresheet for Atletico-MG. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Atletico Torque · On: Luka Andrade · Off: E. Obregón
82′We said Atletico-MG at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Atletico-MG · On: Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza · Off: Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Atletico-MG · On: Alan Minda · Off: Tomás Cuello
86′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Atletico-MG · On: Alan Minda · Off: Tomás Cuello
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Atletico-MG · On: Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza · Off: Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Atletico Torque · On: Alexander Nahuel da Silva Rivero · Off: Salomón Rodríguez
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Luka Andrade · Atletico Torque
FTFULL TIME Atletico-MG 3–0 Atletico Torque
FTAtletico-MG 3–0 Atletico Torque · Atletico-MG win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico-MG are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico-MG 61%, draw 22%, Atletico Torque 17%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Atletico-MG v Atletico TorqueBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 22:19 · locked at kick-off

Atletico-MG win61%

Draw22%

Atletico Torque win17%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 23:00

VenueArena MRV

RefereeCarlos Betancur

Line-ups

Atletico-MG

4-2-3-1

Atletico Torque

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico-MG

Atletico Torque

3Days since last match5

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico-MG

4-2-3-1

1 Gabriel Delfim

21 A. Franco

40 Vitão

13 Lyanco

6 Renan Lodi

8 Maycon

15 K. Castaño

28 T. Cuello

30 Victor Hugo

11 Bernard

19 Reinier

Coach · E. Domínguez

Substitutes

23 · A. Preciado

36 · K. Pascini

92 · Dudu

17 · Igor Gomes

3 · Léo Duarte

18 · T. Borbas

39 · Mamady Cisse

14 · Vitor Hugo

5 · Alexsander

27 · A. Minda

2 · Natanael

31 · Robert

Atletico Torque

5-4-1

1 F. Torgnascioli

17 E. Agüero

24 G. Kagelmacher

3 K. Silva

2 B. Gutierrez

26 F. Silvera

5 F. Pizzichillo

8 P. Siles

20 G. Montes

10 E. Obregón

9 S. Rodríguez

Coach · Marcelo Méndez

Substitutes

32 · S. Cáceres

23 · L. Duré

19 · D. Guzmán

18 · R. Lecchini

16 · ignacio molina

21 · N. Perez

30 · J. Quintana

13 · G. Rodríguez

27 · J. Tarán

11 · N. da Silva

15 · E. Busquets

7 · Luka Andrade

Our number · atletico-mg winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 22:19 · locked at kick-off

61% The market68%

Us61%

~~Market~~68%

We make Atletico-MG a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico-MG v Atletico Torque~~1.96 – 0.93

~~Last six in CONMEBOL Sudamericana~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~The market · Atletico-MG win~~68% · ours 61%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atletico-mg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 65% to 68% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico-MG win	61%	68%	−7
Draw	22%	21%	+1
Atletico Torque win	17%	11%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	55%	47%	+8
Both teams to score	52%	41%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	79%	72%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	33%	27%	+6
Atletico-MG or draw	83%	89%	−6
Atletico-MG clean sheet	39%	–	–
Atletico Torque clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.7%

0123450 5.9 4.8 2.4 1 10.5 10.4 4.7 2 10.7 9.9 4.6 3 7.0 6.5 3.0 4 3.4 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico-MG down, Atletico Torque across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Atletico-MG play in the Serie A, Atletico Torque in the Primera División.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Atletico-MG are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Atletico-MG, 0.93 for Atletico Torque. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in CONMEBOL Sudamericana since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in CONMEBOL Sudamericana

ATLETICO-MG

WWWDLW2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 4–2

ATLETICO TORQUE

WDWWLW4–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico-MG	6	2	10
2	Cienciano	6	-2	8
3	Juventud	6	3	7
4	Puerto Cabello	6	-3	7

The competition's standings.

Atletico-MG v Atletico Torque

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Atletico-MG

Atletico Torque

Rest & schedule

Atletico-MG

Atletico Torque

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Atletico-MG

Atletico Torque

Match statistics

Line-ups

Atletico-MG

Atletico Torque

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in CONMEBOL Sudamericana

The table