Palmeiras v Fluminense

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Palmeiras win at 58%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Palmeiras 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–24–18
3. 1′KICK-OFF Palmeiras v Fluminense
4. 32′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Fluminense · On: Ignácio da Silva Oliveira · Off: Julian Millan
5. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Palmeiras win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
6. 40′We said Palmeiras at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 46–37–17
7. 44′We said Palmeiras at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–39–17
8. 45′SECOND HALF Palmeiras 0–0 Fluminense
9. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fluminense · On: Kevin Serna · Off: Jefferson David Savarino Quintero
10. 48′HALF-TIME Palmeiras 0–0 Fluminense
11. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Alexander Barboza · Palmeiras
12. 54′We said Palmeiras at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–45–16
13. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Palmeiras win 42%)
14. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 39–46–15
15. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Palmeiras win: 58% at kick-off, 38% now
16. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Hércules Pereira do Nascimento · Fluminense
17. 62′We said Palmeiras at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–52–14
18. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Palmeiras · On: Ramon Sosa · Off: José Manuel López
19. 68′We said Palmeiras at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–59–12
20. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Palmeiras win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
21. 74′We said Palmeiras at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–67–10
22. 76′8 shots for Palmeiras, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 21–70–9
23. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Jhon Arias · Palmeiras
24. 78′We said Palmeiras at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–73–8
25. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Palmeiras win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
26. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Fluminense · On: Samuel Xavier Brito · Off: Claudio Rodrigues Gomes
27. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Fluminense · On: Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado · Off: Agustín Canobbio
28. 81′We said Palmeiras at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–7
29. 81′We said Palmeiras at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–13–86
30. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Palmeiras 0–1 Fluminense
31. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Palmeiras win: 58% at kick-off, 1% now
32. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Fluminense win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 79%)
33. 82′Hércules Pereira do Nascimento scores for Fluminense on 82′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
34. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Palmeiras · On: Maurício Magalhães Prado · Off: Andreas Pereira
35. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Palmeiras · On: Paulo Henrique Sampaio Filho · Off: Jhon Arias
36. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Fluminense · On: Luciano Acosta · Off: Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima
37. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Palmeiras · On: Khellven Douglas Silva Oliveira · Off: Agustin Giay
38. 88′12 shots for Palmeiras, 4 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 0–7–93
39. 120′Hércules Pereira do Nascimento scores for Fluminense on 82′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–0–100
40. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 0–1 · 0–0–100
41. FTFULL TIME Palmeiras 0–1 Fluminense
42. FTPalmeiras 0–1 Fluminense after 90 minutes, as graded · Palmeiras win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.