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Model 1.1

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Fluminense v Palmeiras

Fluminense
1–2Full time
Palmeiras

CONMEBOL Libertadores · THU 15 OCT · Estádio do Maracanã

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 05:30
Fluminense 1–2 Palmeiras PALMEIRAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Palmeiras win37%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.601
The market’s Brier score0.637

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Palmeiras win at 37%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Palmeiras was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 35–28–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Fluminense v Palmeiras
  4. 33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Palmeiras win 32%)
  5. 44′We published Palmeiras at 37%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 7–21–72
  6. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Fluminense 0–1 Palmeiras
  7. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Palmeiras win: 37% at kick-off, 72% now
  8. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Palmeiras win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
  9. 45′Palmeiras ahead on 45′ through José Manuel López. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–21–72
  10. 45′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 7–21–72
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Fluminense 0–1 Palmeiras
  12. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fluminense · On: Hércules Pereira do Nascimento · Off: Matheus Martinelli Lima
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Fluminense 0–1 Palmeiras
  14. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Alexander Barboza · Palmeiras
  15. 54′We published Palmeiras at 37%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
  16. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Palmeiras win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
  17. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Fluminense · On: Kevin Serna · Off: Agustín Canobbio
  18. 66′We published Palmeiras at 37%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  19. 74′We published Palmeiras at 37%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  20. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Palmeiras · On: Maurício Magalhães Prado · Off: Andreas Pereira
  21. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Palmeiras · On: Ramon Sosa · Off: José Manuel López
  22. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Palmeiras · On: Felipe Anderson · Off: Jhon Arias
  23. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Palmeiras win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
  24. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fluminense · On: Luciano Acosta · Off: Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima
  25. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fluminense · On: Rodrigo Castillo · Off: Hulk
  26. 78′9.0 shots for Fluminense, 4.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–1 · 1–11–88
  27. 81′We published Palmeiras at 37%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  28. 84′Marlon Freitas scores for Palmeiras on 85′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  29. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Fluminense 0–2 Palmeiras · José Manuel López
  30. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Fluminense · On: Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado · Off: Jefferson David Savarino Quintero
  31. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Palmeiras win: 37% at kick-off, 100% now
  32. 85′We published Palmeiras at 37%. Our model now makes it 100%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  33. 92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Fluminense 1–2 Palmeiras
  34. 93′90′ and it is 1–2: Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado on the scoresheet for Fluminense. 1–2 · 0–2–98
  35. 96′Full time, 1–2. We called Palmeiras at 37% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  36. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Agustin Giay · Palmeiras
  37. FTFULL TIME Fluminense 1–2 Palmeiras
  38. FTFluminense 1–2 Palmeiras · Palmeiras win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Palmeiras just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Fluminense 35%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 37%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Fluminense v PalmeirasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 01:01 · locked at kick-off

Fluminense win35%
Draw28%
Palmeiras win37%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 01:30

VenueEstádio do Maracanã

RefereeFacundo Tello

Line-ups

Fluminense

4-2-3-1

Palmeiras

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fluminense

Palmeiras

4Days since last match4
2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Fluminense608

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fluminense

4-2-3-1

1 Fábio

23 Guga

3 Thiago Silva

29 J. Millán

13 Guilherme Arana

16 Nonato

8 Martinelli

17 A. Canobbio

10 PH Ganso

11 J. Savarino

7 Hulk

Coach · Marcão

Substitutes

19 · R. Castillo

32 · L. Acosta

94 · Otávio

35 · Hércules

21 · Igor Rabello

44 · Jemmes

6 · Renê

90 · K. Serna

30 · Y. Soteldo

2 · Samuel Xavier

27 · Marcelo

34 · Wesley Nata

Palmeiras

3-4-2-1

1 Carlos Miguel

26 Murilo

15 G. Gómez

2 A. Barboza

4 A. Giay

17 Marlon Freitas

30 Lucas Evangelista

22 J. Piquerez

11 J. Arias

8 Andreas Pereira

42 J. López

Coach · Abel Ferreira

Substitutes

7 · Felipe Anderson

14 · Marcelo Lomba

18 · Maurício

32 · E. Martínez

50 · Luis Felipe

10 · Paulinho

56 · Arthur

12 · Khellven

19 · R. Sosa

48 · Larson

39 · Heittor

3 · Bruno Fuchs

Our number · palmeiras winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 15 Oct 01:01 · locked at kick-off
37% The market35%
Us37%
Market35%

We make Palmeiras a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Fluminense v Palmeiras1.16 – 1.20
Last six in CONMEBOL LibertadoresW3 D1 L2 · W3 D3 L0
The market · Palmeiras win35% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 9 OCT 06:2213 OCT 05:54
Our probability · palmeiras win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Fluminense win35%33%+2
Draw28%33%−4
Palmeiras win37%35%+2
Over 2.5 goals42%36%+6
Both teams to score48%45%+3
Over 1.5 goals68%62%+6
Over 3.5 goals21%19%+3
Fluminense or draw63%65%−2
Fluminense clean sheet30%––
Palmeiras clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%
0123450 9.8 11.1 6.8 2.7 1 10.8 13.3 7.8 3.1 2 6.4 7.5 4.5 3 2.5 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Fluminense down, Palmeiras across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.08
Over 2.55 of 12
Both scored7 of 12
Last meetingsFLU 3–2 PAL · PAL 2–1 FLU · PAL 0–0 FLU · FLU 1–2 PAL

Form · last six in CONMEBOL Libertadores

FLUMINENSE

DWLWWL3–3 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 0–1

PALMEIRAS

DDWDWW1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 4–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Independ. Rivadavia6916
2Fluminense608
3Bolívar6-25
4Deportivo La Guaira6-73

The competition's standings.