Flamengo v Estudiantes L.P.

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Flamengo win at 63%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Flamengo v Estudiantes L.P.
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Flamengo was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–24–13
4. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Flamengo win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
5. 37′We said Flamengo at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 51%. 0–0 · 51–35–13
6. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez · Estudiantes L.P.
7. 38′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Estudiantes L.P. · On: Tiago Palacios · Off: Joaquín Correa
8. 41′We said Flamengo at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–38–13
9. 45′SECOND HALF Flamengo 0–0 Estudiantes L.P.
10. 47′HALF-TIME Flamengo 0–0 Estudiantes L.P.
11. 50′We said Flamengo at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–43–13
12. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Leandro Gonzalez Pirez · Estudiantes L.P.
13. 50′🟥 RED CARD · 50' Estudiantes L.P.
14. 51′A red card for Estudiantes L.P. on 50′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 44–44–13
15. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Flamengo win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
16. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Flamengo win 44%)
17. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Santiago Núñez · Estudiantes L.P.
18. 59′We said Flamengo at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–50–12
19. 64′We said Flamengo at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–55–11
20. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Flamengo win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
21. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Lucas Piovi · Estudiantes L.P.
22. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Flamengo · On: Giorgian de Arrascaeta · Off: Jorge Carrascal
23. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Alexander Jesús Medina Reobasco · Estudiantes L.P.
24. 69′We said Flamengo at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–61–10
25. 75′We said Flamengo at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–69–8
26. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Flamengo win: 63% at kick-off, 23% now
27. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Estudiantes L.P. · On: Tiago Tomas Palacios · Off: Marcos Rojo
28. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Estudiantes L.P. · On: Edwuin Cetre · Off: Joaquín Tobio Burgos
29. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Estudiantes L.P. · On: Adolfo Gaich · Off: Guido Carrillo
30. 79′We said Flamengo at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–76–6
31. 82′We said Flamengo at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–82–5
32. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Flamengo · On: Bruno Henrique · Off: Erick Pulgar
33. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Flamengo · On: Gonzalo Plata · Off: Samuel Lino
34. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Flamengo · On: Ayrton Lucas · Off: Alex Sandro
35. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Flamengo win: 63% at kick-off, 12% now
36. 86′We said Flamengo at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–88–3
37. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Flamengo · On: Joaquín Freitas · Off: Pedro
38. 91′Flamengo have had 12 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 5–94–2
39. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Estudiantes L.P. · On: José Sosa · Off: Alexis Castro
40. 92′We said Flamengo at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–95–1
41. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Flamengo win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
42. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
43. FTFULL TIME Flamengo 0–0 Estudiantes L.P.
44. FTFlamengo 0–0 Estudiantes L.P. after 90 minutes, as graded · Flamengo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.