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Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo

Estudiantes L.P.
0–0Full time
Flamengo

CONMEBOL Libertadores · FRI 16 OCT · Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 04:05
Estudiantes L.P. 0–0 Flamengo FLAMENGO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Flamengo win51%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.821
The market’s Brier score0.713

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Flamengo win at 51%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Flamengo 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 21–27–51
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo
  4. 31′Estudiantes L.P. have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 20–36–44
  5. 36′8 shots for Estudiantes L.P., 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 20–38–42
  6. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Alexis Castro · Estudiantes L.P.
  7. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Flamengo win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
  8. 43′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 19–42–39
  9. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Lucas Piovi · Estudiantes L.P.
  10. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Flamengo win 38%)
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Estudiantes L.P. 0–0 Flamengo
  12. 47′12 shots for Estudiantes L.P., 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 19–43–38
  13. 47′HALF-TIME Estudiantes L.P. 0–0 Flamengo
  14. 53′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 17–48–34
  15. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Flamengo win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
  16. 60′16 shots for Estudiantes L.P., 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 16–54–30
  17. 62′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 15–56–29
  18. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Lucas Paquetá · Flamengo
  19. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Estudiantes L.P. · On: Joaquín Correa · Off: Tiago Palacios
  20. 69′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 13–63–24
  21. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Flamengo win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
  22. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Jorge Carrascal · Flamengo
  23. 75′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 10–71–19
  24. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Estudiantes L.P. · On: Edwuin Cetre · Off: Joaquín Tobio Burgos
  25. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Estudiantes L.P. · On: Miguel Monsalve · Off: Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez
  26. 79′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 8–78–14
  27. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Flamengo · On: Gonzalo Plata · Off: Samuel Lino
  28. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Flamengo · On: Pedro · Off: Bruno Henrique
  29. 81′20 shots for Estudiantes L.P., 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 7–81–12
  30. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Flamengo win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
  31. 84′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 5–87–9
  32. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Flamengo · On: Joaquín Freitas · Off: Lucas Paquetá
  33. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Guillermo Varela · Flamengo
  34. 90′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
  35. 94′0–0 at the end. Our 51% on Flamengo misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  36. FTFULL TIME Estudiantes L.P. 0–0 Flamengo
  37. FTEstudiantes L.P. 0–0 Flamengo · Flamengo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flamengo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Estudiantes L.P. 21%, draw 28%, Flamengo 51%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Estudiantes L.P. v FlamengoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

Estudiantes L.P. win21%
Draw28%
Flamengo win51%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 01:30

RoundSemi-finals

VenueEstadio Jorge Luis Hirschi

RefereeJuan Gabriel Benitez

Line-ups

Estudiantes L.P.

4-4-2

Flamengo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Estudiantes L.P.

Flamengo

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina

Last match: 11 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Group A

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Flamengo6+1216
2Estudiantes L.P.6+19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Estudiantes L.P.

4-4-2

16 F. Muslera

40 E. Mancuso

4 S. Núñez

26 R. Funes Mori

13 G. Benedetti

31 B. Gallego

21 Lucas Ezequiel Piovi

22 A. Castro

17 J. Burgos

9 G. Carrillo

10 T. Palacios

Coach · Alexander Medina

Substitutes

27 · L. Alario

28 · B. Aguirre

15 · S. Arzamendia

18 · E. Cetré

32 · J. Correa

3 · Máximo Desábato

19 · A. Gaich

1 · F. Iacovich

52 · B. Kociubinski

34 · M. Monsalve

29 · F. Pérez Escudero

7 · J. Sosa

Flamengo

4-2-3-1

1 A. Rossi

22 Emerson Royal

3 Léo Ortiz

4 Léo Pereira

26 Alex Sandro

5 E. Pulgar

8 Saúl

15 J. Carrascal

11 Lucas Paquetá

16 Samuel Lino

27 Bruno Henrique

Coach · Leonardo Jardim

Substitutes

61 · João Victor Cunha

7 · Luiz Araújo

42 · Andrew

44 · Vitão

2 · G. Varela

14 · A. Valencia

19 · G. Plata

77 · Johnny Góes

30 · J. Freitas

49 · Dyogo

9 · Pedro

18 · N. de la Cruz

Our number · flamengo winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 15 Oct 22:40 · locked at kick-off
51% The market44%
Us51%
Market44%

We make Flamengo a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo0.81 – 1.41
Form · last six in CONMEBOL Libertadores this season · since 21 MayW3 D2 L1 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 9 v 162 v 1
The market · Flamengo win44% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:2216 OCT 01:09
Our probability · Flamengo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. The market has gone from 42% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Estudiantes L.P. win21%24%−3
Draw28%32%−4
Flamengo win51%44%+7
Over 2.5 goals38%35%+3
Both teams to score42%41%+1
Over 1.5 goals65%60%+5
Over 3.5 goals19%17%+2
Estudiantes L.P. or draw49%56%−7
Estudiantes L.P. clean sheet24%––
Flamengo clean sheet45%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.9%
0123450 11.2 14.9 10.8 5.1 1 8.4 12.8 8.8 4.1 2 3.5 5.0 3.5 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Estudiantes L.P. down, Flamengo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.75
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsFLA 1–0 EST · EST 1–1 FLA · EST 1–0 FLA · FLA 2–1 EST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in CONMEBOL Libertadores this season · since 21 May

ESTUDIANTES L.P.

LWDWDW0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

FLAMENGO

WWDWWD1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Group A
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Flamengo6+1216
2Estudiantes L.P.6+19
3Independiente Medellin6−57
4Cusco6−81

The competition's standings before kick-off.