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Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo
Estudiantes L.P.
FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores · FRI 16 OCT · Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Flamengo win at 51%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Flamengo 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 21–27–51
- 1′KICK-OFF Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo
- 31′Estudiantes L.P. have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 20–36–44
- 36′8 shots for Estudiantes L.P., 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 20–38–42
- 36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Alexis Castro · Estudiantes L.P.
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Flamengo win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
- 43′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 19–42–39
- 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Lucas Piovi · Estudiantes L.P.
- 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Flamengo win 38%)
- 45′SECOND HALF Estudiantes L.P. 0–0 Flamengo
- 47′12 shots for Estudiantes L.P., 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 19–43–38
- 47′HALF-TIME Estudiantes L.P. 0–0 Flamengo
- 53′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 17–48–34
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Flamengo win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
- 60′16 shots for Estudiantes L.P., 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 16–54–30
- 62′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 15–56–29
- 64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Lucas Paquetá · Flamengo
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Estudiantes L.P. · On: Joaquín Correa · Off: Tiago Palacios
- 69′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 13–63–24
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Flamengo win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
- 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Jorge Carrascal · Flamengo
- 75′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 10–71–19
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Estudiantes L.P. · On: Edwuin Cetre · Off: Joaquín Tobio Burgos
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Estudiantes L.P. · On: Miguel Monsalve · Off: Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez
- 79′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 8–78–14
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Flamengo · On: Gonzalo Plata · Off: Samuel Lino
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Flamengo · On: Pedro · Off: Bruno Henrique
- 81′20 shots for Estudiantes L.P., 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 7–81–12
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Flamengo win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
- 84′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 5–87–9
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Flamengo · On: Joaquín Freitas · Off: Lucas Paquetá
- 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Guillermo Varela · Flamengo
- 90′We said Flamengo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
- 94′0–0 at the end. Our 51% on Flamengo misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
- FTFULL TIME Estudiantes L.P. 0–0 Flamengo
- FTEstudiantes L.P. 0–0 Flamengo · Flamengo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassFlamengo are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Estudiantes L.P. 21%, draw 28%, Flamengo 51%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 42%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off
Estudiantes L.P. win21%
Flamengo win51%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 01:30
RoundSemi-finals
VenueEstadio Jorge Luis Hirschi
RefereeJuan Gabriel Benitez
Match timeline
All events
Estudiantes L.P.MIN
FlamengoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Estudiantes L.P.
4-4-2
Flamengo
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Estudiantes L.P.
Flamengo
Last match: 10 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentina
Last match: 11 Oct · the Brazilian Serie A
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Estudiantes L.P.
4-4-2
16 F. Muslera
40 E. Mancuso
4 S. Núñez
26 R. Funes Mori
13 G. Benedetti
31 B. Gallego
21 Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
22 A. Castro
17 J. Burgos
9 G. Carrillo
10 T. Palacios
Coach · Alexander Medina
Substitutes
27 · L. Alario
28 · B. Aguirre
15 · S. Arzamendia
18 · E. Cetré
32 · J. Correa
3 · Máximo Desábato
19 · A. Gaich
1 · F. Iacovich
52 · B. Kociubinski
34 · M. Monsalve
29 · F. Pérez Escudero
7 · J. Sosa
Flamengo
4-2-3-1
1 A. Rossi
22 Emerson Royal
3 Léo Ortiz
4 Léo Pereira
26 Alex Sandro
5 E. Pulgar
8 Saúl
15 J. Carrascal
11 Lucas Paquetá
16 Samuel Lino
27 Bruno Henrique
Coach · Leonardo Jardim
Substitutes
61 · João Victor Cunha
7 · Luiz Araújo
42 · Andrew
44 · Vitão
2 · G. Varela
14 · A. Valencia
19 · G. Plata
77 · Johnny Góes
30 · J. Freitas
49 · Dyogo
9 · Pedro
18 · N. de la Cruz
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Estudiantes L.P.
4-4-2
16 F. Muslera
40 E. Mancuso
4 S. Núñez
26 R. Funes Mori
13 G. Benedetti
31 B. Gallego
21 Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
22 A. Castro
17 J. Burgos
9 G. Carrillo
10 T. Palacios
Coach · Alexander Medina
Substitutes
27 · L. Alario
28 · B. Aguirre
15 · S. Arzamendia
18 · E. Cetré
32 · J. Correa
3 · Máximo Desábato
19 · A. Gaich
1 · F. Iacovich
52 · B. Kociubinski
34 · M. Monsalve
29 · F. Pérez Escudero
7 · J. Sosa
Flamengo
4-2-3-1
1 A. Rossi
22 Emerson Royal
3 Léo Ortiz
4 Léo Pereira
26 Alex Sandro
5 E. Pulgar
8 Saúl
15 J. Carrascal
11 Lucas Paquetá
16 Samuel Lino
27 Bruno Henrique
Coach · Leonardo Jardim
Substitutes
61 · João Victor Cunha
7 · Luiz Araújo
42 · Andrew
44 · Vitão
2 · G. Varela
14 · A. Valencia
19 · G. Plata
77 · Johnny Góes
30 · J. Freitas
49 · Dyogo
9 · Pedro
18 · N. de la Cruz
We make Flamengo a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 50%, 51% now. The market has gone from 42% to 44% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes L.P. win | 21% | 24% | −3 |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Flamengo win | 51% | 44% | +7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 35% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 41% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 60% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 17% | +2 |
| Estudiantes L.P. or draw | 49% | 56% | −7 |
| Estudiantes L.P. clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
| Flamengo clean sheet | 45% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in CONMEBOL Libertadores this season · since 21 May
ESTUDIANTES L.P.
FLAMENGO
The table
2026 · Group A| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | +12 | 16 |
| 2 | Estudiantes L.P. | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellin | 6 | −5 | 7 |
| 4 | Cusco | 6 | −8 | 1 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Independiente Medellin
Cusco