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Model 1.2

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LD Alajuelense v CD Motagua

LD Alajuelense
02:00Upcoming
CD Motagua

CONCACAF Central American Cup · FRI 30 OCT · Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LD AlajuelenseDrawCD Motagua
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:00
Before kick-off · Match result · LD Alajuelense 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

LD Alajuelense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: LD Alajuelense 45%, draw 28%, CD Motagua 27%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on LD Alajuelense v CD MotaguaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

LD Alajuelense win45%
Draw28%
CD Motagua win27%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 02:00

RoundSemi-finals

VenueEstadio Alejandro Morera Soto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

LD Alajuelense

CD Motagua

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · CONCACAF Central American Cup

Last match: 23 Oct · CONCACAF Central American Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ld alajuelense winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off
45% The market–
Us45%

We make LD Alajuelense a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · LD Alajuelense v CD Motagua1.38 – 1.01
Form · last six in CONCACAF Central American Cup this season · since 5 AugW3 D2 L1 · W2 D4 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
LD Alajuelense win45%––
Draw28%––
CD Motagua win27%––
Over 2.5 goals43%––
Both teams to score48%––
Over 1.5 goals70%––
Over 3.5 goals22%––
LD Alajuelense or draw73%––
LD Alajuelense clean sheet36%––
CD Motagua clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%
0123450 9.5 8.8 4.7 1 12.1 13.2 6.5 2.2 2 8.7 8.8 4.5 3 4.0 4.1 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+LD Alajuelense down, CD Motagua across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsCDM 0–0 LDA · CDM 1–2 LDA · LDA 0–1 CDM · LDA 5–1 CDM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in CONCACAF Central American Cup this season · since 5 Aug

LD ALAJUELENSE

WLWDWD3–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 0–0

CD MOTAGUA

WDDWDD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–0