Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › CONCACAF Central American Cup › Firpo v Deportivo Saprissa

Back

Firpo v Deportivo Saprissa

Firpo
0–0Full time
Deportivo Saprissa

CONCACAF Central American Cup · THU 22 OCT · Estadio Jorge Gonzalez

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 04:05
Firpo 0–0 Deportivo Saprissa DEPORTIVO SAPRISSA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Deportivo Saprissa win46%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.868
The market’s Brier score0.744

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Saprissa win at 46%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Saprissa 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 29–25–46
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Firpo v Deportivo Saprissa
  4. 45′SECOND HALF Firpo 0–0 Deportivo Saprissa
  5. 46′HALF-TIME Firpo 0–0 Deportivo Saprissa
  6. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Deportivo Saprissa · On: A. Soto · Off: D. Guzman
  7. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Deportivo Saprissa win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
  8. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Deportivo Saprissa win 38%)
  9. 54′We said Deportivo Saprissa at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 24–42–34
  10. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 24–43–34
  11. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Deportivo Saprissa · On: N. Williams · Off: G. Torres
  12. 63′We said Deportivo Saprissa at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 21–49–29
  13. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Deportivo Saprissa win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
  14. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Firpo · On: J. Valencia · Off: M. Mercado
  15. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Firpo · On: L. Claros · Off: J. Jimenez
  16. 71′We said Deportivo Saprissa at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 18–59–24
  17. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Deportivo Saprissa · On: B. Hernandez · Off: O. Sinclair
  18. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Deportivo Saprissa · On: K. Arboine · Off: L. Paradela
  19. 76′We said Deportivo Saprissa at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 14–66–19
  20. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Deportivo Saprissa win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
  21. 81′We said Deportivo Saprissa at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 10–76–14
  22. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Firpo · On: B. B. Landaverde Alvarez · Off: W. Y. Arizala Dajomes
  23. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Firpo · On: E. Rodriguez · Off: E. Vigil
  24. 85′We said Deportivo Saprissa at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–84–9
  25. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Deportivo Saprissa · On: A. Barahona · Off: M. Torres
  26. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Firpo · On: M. E. Gonzalez · Off: V. Garcia
  27. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Deportivo Saprissa win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
  28. 91′We said Deportivo Saprissa at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–92–4
  29. FTFULL TIME Firpo 0–0 Deportivo Saprissa
  30. FTFirpo 0–0 Deportivo Saprissa · Deportivo Saprissa win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Saprissa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Firpo 29%, draw 25%, Deportivo Saprissa 46%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Firpo v Deportivo SaprissaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Firpo win29%
Draw25%
Deportivo Saprissa win46%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 01:30

RoundFinal

VenueEstadio Jorge Gonzalez

Line-ups

Firpo

Deportivo Saprissa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Firpo

Deportivo Saprissa

6Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Firpo

Formation not confirmed

25 F. Amaya

24 J. Jimenez

6 E. Vigil

3 W. Y. Arizala Dajomes

12 D. A. Flores Sanchez

26 M. Mercado

28 R. Aguila

17 M. Cerritos

27 D. Ortez

10 V. Garcia

7 L. S. Vasquez Velasquez

Coach · Marvin Solano

Substitutes

1 · G. Barrera

29 · M. Erazo

5 · L. Claros

8 · B. B. Landaverde Alvarez

9 · M. E. Gonzalez

4 · E. Flores

36 · E. Rodriguez

16 · O. Ceren

20 · J. Valencia

19 · C. Gil

35 · N. Diaz

Deportivo Saprissa

Formation not confirmed

40 A. Madriz

3 P. Arboine

4 K. Waston

21 F. Escobar

5 J. Mora

25 S. Acuna

20 M. Torres

8 D. Guzman

28 G. Torres

24 O. Sinclair

23 L. Paradela

Coach · Hernan Medford

Substitutes

13 · I. Alfaro

35 · I. O'Rourke

6 · O. Duarte

22 · J. M. Azofeifa Rivas

15 · D. Sequeira

48 · T. Cordero

39 · A. Barahona

7 · N. Williams

26 · A. Soto

11 · B. Hernandez

14 · A. Rodriguez

19 · K. Arboine

Our number · deportivo saprissa winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 21 Oct 04:13 · locked at kick-off
46% The market42%
Us46%
Market42%

We make Deportivo Saprissa a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Firpo v Deportivo Saprissa1.30 – 1.69
Form · CONCACAF Central American Cup this season · since 30 JulyW2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2
The market · Deportivo Saprissa win42% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 01:14
Our probability · Deportivo Saprissa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Firpo win29%28%+1
Draw25%30%−5
Deportivo Saprissa win46%42%+4
Over 2.5 goals58%45%+13
Both teams to score60%51%+9
Over 1.5 goals80%70%+10
Over 3.5 goals35%26%+9
Firpo or draw54%58%−4
Firpo clean sheet18%––
Deportivo Saprissa clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%
0123450 5.4 8.1 7.2 4.0 1 6.2 11.4 9.3 5.3 2.2 2 4.3 7.2 6.1 3.4 3 3.1 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Firpo down, Deportivo Saprissa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CONCACAF Central American Cup this season · since 30 July

FIRPO

LWWDLL1–2 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–3

DEPORTIVO SAPRISSA

WWWLDL2–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–3