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Model 1.2

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CS Cartagines v CD Olimpia

CS Cartagines
1–0Full time
CD Olimpia

CONCACAF Central American Cup · THU 22 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 06:00
CS Cartagines 1–0 CD Olimpia CD OLIMPIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said CD Olimpia win43%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.757
The market’s Brier score0.576

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said CD Olimpia win at 43%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: CD Olimpia was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 30–27–43
  3. 1′KICK-OFF CS Cartagines v CD Olimpia
  4. 14′We said CD Olimpia at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 59–23–18
  5. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' CS Cartagines 1–0 CD Olimpia
  6. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' CD Olimpia win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
  7. 14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' CS Cartagines win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was CD Olimpia win 41%)
  8. 15′14′: A. Hernandez on the scoresheet for CS Cartagines, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 59–23–18
  9. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' C. Montero · CS Cartagines
  10. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 25' E. Rodriguez · CD Olimpia
  11. 29′We said CD Olimpia at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
  12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 62–24–14
  13. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' CD Olimpia win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
  14. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Y. Arboleda · CD Olimpia
  15. 39′🟥 RED CARD · 39' CD Olimpia
  16. 42′A red card for CD Olimpia on 39′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 65–24–11
  17. 45′SECOND HALF CS Cartagines 1–0 CD Olimpia
  18. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' J. Quiros · CS Cartagines
  19. 48′We said CD Olimpia at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
  20. 49′HALF-TIME CS Cartagines 1–0 CD Olimpia
  21. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 58' CS Cartagines · On: D. Gonzalez Hernandez · Off: J. Quiros
  22. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 58' CS Cartagines · On: J. Gaete · Off: C. Montero
  23. 67′We said CD Olimpia at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
  24. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' CD Olimpia win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  25. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' CD Olimpia · On: R. Garcia · Off: J. Jean-Baptiste
  26. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' CD Olimpia · On: K. Guity · Off: C. Canales
  27. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' CD Olimpia · On: K. Pena · Off: I. Enriquez
  28. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' CS Cartagines · On: D. Lopez · Off: G. M. Morera
  29. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' CS Cartagines · On: J. Cortes · Off: C. Barahona
  30. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Tepa · CS Cartagines
  31. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' J. Alvarez · CD Olimpia
  32. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' CD Olimpia · On: N. Dibble · Off: J. Alvarez Corrected
  33. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' CS Cartagines · On: G. Castro · Off: Tepa
  34. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' D. Mesen · CS Cartagines
  35. 93′Full time, 1–0. We called CD Olimpia at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  36. FTFULL TIME CS Cartagines 1–0 CD Olimpia
  37. FTCS Cartagines 1–0 CD Olimpia · CD Olimpia win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CD Olimpia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CS Cartagines 30%, draw 27%, CD Olimpia 43%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on CS Cartagines v CD OlimpiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

CS Cartagines win30%
Draw27%
CD Olimpia win43%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 03:30

RoundSemi-finals

Line-ups

CS Cartagines

CD Olimpia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CS Cartagines

CD Olimpia

4Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CS Cartagines

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Briceno

18 C. Barahona

20 D. Mesen

4 L. A. Olivas Salcedo

12 J. Quiros

7 M. Moran

15 L. Flores

31 G. M. Morera

6 C. Montero

9 Tepa

22 A. Hernandez

Coach · Amarini Villatoro

Substitutes

34 · D. Hidalgo

33 · C. Moya

19 · D. Gonzalez Hernandez

21 · J. Cortes

2 · R. Cordero

26 · B. Alfaro

8 · D. Lopez

11 · L. Alfaro

39 · M. Villalobos

13 · J. Gaete

16 · G. Castro

27 · J. Mora

CD Olimpia

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Menjivar

6 F. Garcia

2 E. Hernandez

3 C. Bennett

12 C. Canales

8 E. Rodriguez

14 J. Jean-Baptiste

23 J. Alvarez

7 I. Enriquez

19 Y. Arboleda

9 J. Benguche

Coach · Eduardo Espinel

Substitutes

22 · O. Rodriguez

38 · R. Mejia

4 · E. Lobo

15 · K. Guity

18 · R. Garcia

20 · A. Maldonado

25 · D. Paguada

45 · B. Martinez

39 · A. Ortiz

21 · K. Pena

31 · N. Dibble

26 · D. Flores

Our number · cd olimpia winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 21 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
43% The market32%
Us43%
Market32%

We make CD Olimpia a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · CS Cartagines v CD Olimpia1.12 – 1.41
Form · CONCACAF Central American Cup this season · since 29 JulyW3 D3 L0 · W6 D0 L0
The market · CD Olimpia win32% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 03:16
Our probability · CD Olimpia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
CS Cartagines win30%38%−8
Draw27%30%−3
CD Olimpia win43%32%+11
Over 2.5 goals47%44%+3
Both teams to score51%51%0
Over 1.5 goals72%69%+3
Over 3.5 goals25%24%+1
CS Cartagines or draw57%68%−11
CS Cartagines clean sheet24%––
CD Olimpia clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 8.3 10.8 7.9 3.7 1 8.5 13.0 8.9 4.2 2 5.0 7.1 5.0 2.4 3 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+CS Cartagines down, CD Olimpia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsCDO 3–1 CSC · CSC 1–2 CDO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CONCACAF Central American Cup this season · since 29 July

CS CARTAGINES

DDWWDW1–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–2

CD OLIMPIA

WWWWWW2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–0