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CD Motagua v LD Alajuelense

CD Motagua
0–0Full time
LD Alajuelense

CONCACAF Central American Cup · FRI 23 OCT · Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 04:35
CD Motagua 0–0 LD Alajuelense CD MOTAGUA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said CD Motagua win39%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.777
The market’s Brier score0.701

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said CD Motagua win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: CD Motagua 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF CD Motagua v LD Alajuelense
  4. 27′SUBSTITUTION · 26' LD Alajuelense · On: A. Salazar · Off: C. Borges
  5. 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was CD Motagua win 35%)
  6. 45′SECOND HALF CD Motagua 0–0 LD Alajuelense
  7. 46′HALF-TIME CD Motagua 0–0 LD Alajuelense
  8. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' CD Motagua win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  9. 56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 28–49–24
  10. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' CD Motagua · On: J. Miranda · Off: J. Batiz
  11. 58′We said CD Motagua at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–50–23
  12. 63′We said CD Motagua at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
  13. 71′We said CD Motagua at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
  14. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' LD Alajuelense · On: A. Zaldivar · Off: R. Cisneros
  15. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' LD Alajuelense · On: A. Hernandez · Off: Juanpi
  16. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' CD Motagua · On: J. Moya · Off: R. De Olivera
  17. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' CD Motagua win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  18. 78′We said CD Motagua at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
  19. 83′We said CD Motagua at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
  20. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' CD Motagua win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  21. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' LD Alajuelense · On: E. Barley · Off: C. Perez
  22. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' LD Alajuelense · On: L. Diaz · Off: K. Michel
  23. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' CD Motagua · On: R. Gomez · Off: D. Melendez
  24. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' CD Motagua · On: V. Marinacci · Off: J. Portillo
  25. 90′We said CD Motagua at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  26. 93′0–0 at the end. Our 39% on CD Motagua misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  27. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' J. Macias · CD Motagua
  28. FTFULL TIME CD Motagua 0–0 LD Alajuelense
  29. FTCD Motagua 0–0 LD Alajuelense · CD Motagua win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CD Motagua are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CD Motagua 39%, draw 28%, LD Alajuelense 32%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on CD Motagua v LD AlajuelenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

CD Motagua win39%
Draw28%
LD Alajuelense win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 02:00

RoundSemi-finals

VenueEstadio Nacional Chelato Ucles

Line-ups

CD Motagua

LD Alajuelense

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CD Motagua

LD Alajuelense

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera División (Costa Rica)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CD Motagua

Formation not confirmed

22 L. Ortiz

26 L. Crisanto

34 G. Sacaza

4 L. Vega

17 J. Portillo

8 D. Melendez

5 O. Discua

23 A. Reyes

27 J. Macias

19 R. De Olivera

21 J. Batiz

Coach · Javier Lopez

Substitutes

25 · M. Licona

24 · J. Garcia

42 · J. Argueta

36 · V. Marinacci

3 · P. Cacho

80 · D. Oliva

9 · J. Moya

10 · R. Gomez

14 · A. Barrios

15 · A. Hernandez

30 · J. Miranda

33 · E. Izaguirre

LD Alajuelense

Formation not confirmed

23 W. J. Ortega Olivera

28 Y. Sosa

3 G. Gonzalez

13 A. Gamboa

42 J. Ruiz

5 C. Borges

14 R. Wilson

99 K. Michel

10 Juanpi

34 C. Perez

18 R. Cisneros

Coach · Oscar Ramirez

Substitutes

1 · B. Mora

40 · D. Velasquez

24 · A. Salazar

21 · Y. Molina

26 · F. Pinar

29 · D. Aguilar

35 · R. Parkins

39 · E. Cruz

44 · E. Barley

9 · A. Zaldivar

11 · L. Diaz

7 · A. Hernandez

Our number · cd motagua winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off
39% The market39%
Us39%
Market39%

We make CD Motagua a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · CD Motagua v LD Alajuelense1.29 – 1.15
Form · CONCACAF Central American Cup this season · since 29 JulyW3 D3 L0 · W4 D1 L1
The market · CD Motagua win39% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 01:44
Our probability · CD Motagua win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
CD Motagua win39%39%0
Draw28%32%−4
LD Alajuelense win32%30%+2
Over 2.5 goals44%41%+3
Both teams to score50%48%+2
Over 1.5 goals70%66%+4
Over 3.5 goals23%22%+1
CD Motagua or draw68%70%−2
CD Motagua clean sheet32%––
LD Alajuelense clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%
0123450 9.2 9.6 5.7 2.2 1 10.9 13.4 7.4 2.8 2 7.3 8.4 4.8 3 3.1 3.6 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+CD Motagua down, LD Alajuelense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.33
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsCDM 1–2 LDA · LDA 0–1 CDM · LDA 5–1 CDM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CONCACAF Central American Cup this season · since 29 July

CD MOTAGUA

WWDDWD5–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0

LD ALAJUELENSE

WWLWDW1–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–1