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Model 1.2

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CD Marathon v Alianza

CD Marathon
2–1Full time
Alianza

CONCACAF Central American Cup · WED 21 OCT · Estadio Yankel Rosenthal

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 05:30
CD Marathon 2–1 Alianza CD MARATHON WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said CD Marathon win57%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.286
The market’s Brier score0.486

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said CD Marathon win at 57%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: CD Marathon was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–27–17
  3. 1′KICK-OFF CD Marathon v Alianza
  4. 4′We said CD Marathon at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–27–44
  5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' CD Marathon 0–1 Alianza
  6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' CD Marathon win: 57% at kick-off, 29% now
  7. 4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Alianza win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was CD Marathon win 56%)
  8. 6′Alianza ahead on 5′ through H. Osorio. 0–1. 0–1 · 28–27–45
  9. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' CD Marathon win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
  10. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' CD Marathon 1–1 Alianza
  11. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' CD Marathon win: 57% at kick-off, 53% now
  12. 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' CD Marathon win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Alianza win 47%)
  13. 16′N. Messiniti scores for CD Marathon on 15′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 53–30–17
  14. 22′We published CD Marathon at 57%. Our model now makes it 83%. 2–1 · 83–13–4
  15. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' CD Marathon 2–1 Alianza
  16. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' CD Marathon win: 57% at kick-off, 83% now
  17. 23′22′: D. Ramirez on the scoresheet for CD Marathon, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 83–13–4
  18. 30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–13–4
  19. 45′SECOND HALF CD Marathon 2–1 Alianza
  20. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Alianza · On: F. Castillo · Off: A. Henriquez
  21. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Y. Moreno · CD Marathon
  22. 47′HALF-TIME CD Marathon 2–1 Alianza
  23. 49′We published CD Marathon at 57%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  24. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' J. Rivera · CD Marathon
  25. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Alianza · On: E. R. Guardado Ardon · Off: W. Flores
  26. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' CD Marathon win: 57% at kick-off, 87% now
  27. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Alianza · On: N. Rivera · Off: M. Aguirre
  28. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' M. Mier · Alianza
  29. 71′We published CD Marathon at 57%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  30. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Alianza · On: Gustavo Souza · Off: M. Mier
  31. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Alianza · On: E. A. Rivas Linares · Off: L. Menjivar
  32. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' CD Marathon · On: J. Bueso · Off: D. Ramirez
  33. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' CD Marathon · On: C. Perez · Off: C. Argueta
  34. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' CD Marathon · On: A. Elis · Off: N. Messiniti
  35. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' E. Hernandez · Alianza
  36. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' J. A. Arriaga Chavez · CD Marathon
  37. 82′We published CD Marathon at 57%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  38. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' CD Marathon · On: J. Aguilera · Off: J. A. Arriaga Chavez
  39. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 78' J. Arriaga · CD Marathon
  40. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' CD Marathon · On: Nayrobi Isaí Vargas Valerio · Off: Brian Farioli
  41. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' CD Marathon win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
  42. FTFULL TIME CD Marathon 2–1 Alianza
  43. FTCD Marathon 2–1 Alianza · CD Marathon win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CD Marathon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CD Marathon 57%, draw 26%, Alianza 17%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on CD Marathon v AlianzaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

CD Marathon win57%
Draw26%
Alianza win17%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 03:00

RoundFinal

VenueEstadio Yankel Rosenthal

Line-ups

CD Marathon

Alianza

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CD Marathon

Alianza

6Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga Nacional (Honduras)

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CD Marathon

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Rougier

16 S. Agurcia

4 J. Rivera

2 H. Figueroa

14 J. A. Arriaga Chavez

8 T. A. Sorto Caballero

22 C. Argueta

10 D. Ramirez

9 B. Farioli

72 Y. Moreno

11 N. Messiniti

Coach · Gabriel Rudman Silvio

Substitutes

31 · H. Juarez

19 · J. Aguilera

3 · K. Bodden

20 · J. Bueso

43 · L. Montoya

7 · I. Castillo

21 · O. Ramos

77 · A. Elis

12 · Y. Mejia

29 · C. Perez

34 · N. Vargas

13 · J. Fernandez

Alianza

Formation not confirmed

13 M. Gonzalez

24 M. Aguirre

29 E. Hernandez

14 W. Parra

23 J. Monteagudo

15 W. Flores

10 L. Menjivar

8 H. Osorio

6 N. Orellana

20 A. Henriquez

7 M. Mier

Coach · Roberto Pompei

Substitutes

1 · M. Joya

31 · D. Franco

11 · J. Portillo

26 · N. Rivera

41 · E. R. Guardado Ardon

27 · D. Bigueur

39 · K. Garcia

56 · D. Romero

9 · Gustavo Souza

45 · L. Tobar

30 · E. A. Rivas Linares

17 · F. Castillo

Our number · cd marathon winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
57% The market43%
Us57%
Market43%

We make CD Marathon a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · CD Marathon v Alianza1.55 – 0.72
Form · CONCACAF Central American Cup this season · since 30 JulyW2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2
The market · CD Marathon win43% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 02:44
Our probability · CD Marathon win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
CD Marathon win57%43%+14
Draw26%29%−3
Alianza win17%28%−11
Over 2.5 goals40%49%−9
Both teams to score41%53%−12
Over 1.5 goals67%71%−4
Over 3.5 goals19%29%−10
CD Marathon or draw83%72%+11
CD Marathon clean sheet48%––
Alianza clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%
0123450 10.7 7.1 2.7 1 15.6 11.9 4.2 2 12.3 8.9 3.2 3 6.4 4.6 4 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+CD Marathon down, Alianza across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsCDM 0–1 ALI · CDM 1–0 ALI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CONCACAF Central American Cup this season · since 30 July

CD MARATHON

DWLWDL0–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–3

ALIANZA

WWLWLD2–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–0