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Welwalo Adigrat Uni v Al Ahli Tripoli

Welwalo Adigrat Uni
0–4Full time
Al Ahli Tripoli

CAF Confederation Cup · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 23:01
Welwalo Adigrat Uni 0–4 Al Ahli Tripoli AL AHLI TRIPOLI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Ahli Tripoli win79%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.071

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Ahli Tripoli are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Welwalo Adigrat Uni 5%, draw 16%, Al Ahli Tripoli 79%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 29%.

The AI’s read on Welwalo Adigrat Uni v Al Ahli TripoliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Welwalo Adigrat Uni win5%
Draw16%
Al Ahli Tripoli win79%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

Round2nd preliminary round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Welwalo Adigrat Uni

Al Ahli Tripoli

7Days since last match34

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 12 Sept · CAF Confederation Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al ahli tripoli winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 16 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
79% The market–
Us79%

We make Al Ahli Tripoli a 79% chance to win. The model expects 0.4–2.2, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Welwalo Adigrat Uni v Al Ahli Tripoli0.39 – 2.21
Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 4 SeptW1 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
75%80%85% 10 OCT 04:0216 OCT 17:45
Our probability · Al Ahli Tripoli win

Published at 78%, 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Welwalo Adigrat Uni win5%––
Draw16%––
Al Ahli Tripoli win79%––
Over 2.5 goals48%––
Both teams to score29%––
Over 1.5 goals73%––
Over 3.5 goals26%––
Welwalo Adigrat Uni or draw21%––
Welwalo Adigrat Uni clean sheet11%––
Al Ahli Tripoli clean sheet67%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 18.1%
0123450 7.6 16.2 18.1 13.3 7.3 3.21 2.7 6.7 7.1 5.2 2.9 2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Welwalo Adigrat Uni down, Al Ahli Tripoli across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 4 Sept

WELWALO ADIGRAT UNI

LW1–2 · 2–1

AL AHLI TRIPOLI

WW3–0 · 4–0