Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › CAF Confederation Cup › Tusker v Singida Black Stars

Back

Tusker v Singida Black Stars

Tusker
0–1Full time
Singida Black Stars

CAF Confederation Cup · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Tusker 0–1 Singida Black Stars SINGIDA BLACK STARS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Singida Black Stars win54%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.320
The market’s Brier score0.479

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Singida Black Stars win at 54%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Singida Black Stars 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 20–26–54
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Tusker v Singida Black Stars
  4. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Singida Black Stars win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
  5. 42′We said Singida Black Stars at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 19–39–42
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Tusker 0–0 Singida Black Stars
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Tusker 0–0 Singida Black Stars
  8. 49′We said Singida Black Stars at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 18–43–39
  9. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Singida Black Stars win 39%)
  10. 53′A goal for Singida Black Stars on 52′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–14–83
  11. 53′We said Singida Black Stars at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 0–1 · 3–14–83
  12. 53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Tusker 0–1 Singida Black Stars
  13. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Singida Black Stars win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
  14. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Singida Black Stars win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 14%)
  15. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Singida Black Stars win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
  16. 61′We said Singida Black Stars at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
  17. 75′We said Singida Black Stars at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  18. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Singida Black Stars win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
  19. 84′We said Singida Black Stars at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  20. FTFULL TIME Tusker 0–1 Singida Black Stars
  21. FTTusker 0–1 Singida Black Stars · Singida Black Stars win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Singida Black Stars are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tusker 20%, draw 26%, Singida Black Stars 54%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Tusker v Singida Black StarsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tusker win20%
Draw26%
Singida Black Stars win54%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

Round2nd preliminary round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tusker

Singida Black Stars

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · FKF Premier League

Last match: 12 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · singida black stars winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
54% The market44%
Us54%
Market44%

We make Singida Black Stars a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Tusker v Singida Black Stars0.86 – 1.58
Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 6 SeptW1 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L0
The market · Singida Black Stars win44% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 12:54
Our probability · Singida Black Stars win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Tusker win20%25%−5
Draw26%31%−5
Singida Black Stars win54%44%+10
Over 2.5 goals44%37%+7
Both teams to score46%43%+3
Over 1.5 goals70%61%+9
Over 3.5 goals23%19%+4
Tusker or draw46%56%−10
Tusker clean sheet21%––
Singida Black Stars clean sheet42%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.4%
0123450 9.1 13.4 10.9 5.7 2.3 1 7.1 12.2 9.4 4.9 2 3.2 5.1 4.0 2.1 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Tusker down, Singida Black Stars across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 6 Sept

TUSKER

DW2–2 · 1–0

SINGIDA BLACK STARS

WW7–1 · 3–0