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Model 1.2

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Red Arrows v Kaizer Chiefs

Red Arrows
1–0Full time
Kaizer Chiefs

CAF Confederation Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Red Arrows 1–0 Kaizer Chiefs KAIZER CHIEFS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kaizer Chiefs win47%
The market said46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.943
The market’s Brier score0.873

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 7 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kaizer Chiefs win at 47%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Kaizer Chiefs was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 21–32–47
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Red Arrows v Kaizer Chiefs
  4. 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Kaizer Chiefs win 38%)
  5. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Kaizer Chiefs win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  6. 43′We said Kaizer Chiefs at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 18–47–35
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Red Arrows 0–0 Kaizer Chiefs
  8. 46′We said Kaizer Chiefs at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 18–48–34
  9. 52′We said Kaizer Chiefs at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 18–48–35
  10. 52′HALF-TIME Red Arrows 0–0 Kaizer Chiefs
  11. 56′We said Kaizer Chiefs at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 16–55–29
  12. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Kaizer Chiefs win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  13. 63′Full time, 0–0. We called Kaizer Chiefs at 47% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  14. 63′Red Arrows find the net on 90′. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  15. 67′We said Kaizer Chiefs at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 0–0 · 12–65–22
  16. FTFULL TIME Red Arrows 0–0 Kaizer Chiefs
  17. FTRed Arrows 1–0 Kaizer Chiefs · Kaizer Chiefs win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kaizer Chiefs are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Red Arrows 21%, draw 31%, Kaizer Chiefs 47%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Red Arrows v Kaizer ChiefsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Red Arrows win21%
Draw31%
Kaizer Chiefs win47%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

Round2nd preliminary round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Red Arrows

Kaizer Chiefs

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Super League (Zambia)

Last match: 13 Oct · Premier Soccer League (South Africa)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kaizer chiefs winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
47% The market46%
Us47%
Market46%

We make Kaizer Chiefs a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Red Arrows v Kaizer Chiefs0.70 – 1.19
The market · Kaizer Chiefs win46% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 13:35
Our probability · Kaizer Chiefs win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Red Arrows win21%24%−3
Draw31%30%+1
Kaizer Chiefs win47%46%+1
Over 2.5 goals29%42%−13
Both teams to score35%47%−12
Over 1.5 goals57%67%−10
Over 3.5 goals12%22%−10
Red Arrows or draw53%54%−1
Red Arrows clean sheet31%––
Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet50%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 17.7%
0123450 15.6 17.7 10.7 4.2 1 10.2 13.0 7.5 2.9 2 3.7 4.4 2.6 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Red Arrows down, Kaizer Chiefs across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 5 Sept

RED ARROWS

WW2–0 · 2–0

KAIZER CHIEFS

No matches in our record yet.