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Model 1.2

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Réal Bamako v ES Zarzis

Réal Bamako
2–2Full time
ES Zarzis

CAF Confederation Cup · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:46
Réal Bamako 2–2 ES Zarzis RÉAL BAMAKO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Réal Bamako win45%
The market said55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.715
The market’s Brier score0.884

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Réal Bamako win at 45%.
  2. 45′A goal for Réal Bamako on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
  3. 45′We published Réal Bamako at 45%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
  4. 45′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 81–16–3
  5. 46′SECOND HALF Réal Bamako 1–0 ES Zarzis
  6. 61′We published Réal Bamako at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  7. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Réal Bamako win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
  8. 74′We published Réal Bamako at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  9. 75′ES Zarzis score on 75′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 15–75–10
  10. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Réal Bamako 1–1 ES Zarzis
  11. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Réal Bamako win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
  12. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Réal Bamako win 90%)
  13. 76′We said Réal Bamako at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–1 · 15–76–9
  14. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Réal Bamako win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
  15. 77′We said Réal Bamako at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–9
  16. 80′ES Zarzis find the net on 79′. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–10–89
  17. 80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Réal Bamako 1–2 ES Zarzis
  18. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Réal Bamako win: 45% at kick-off, 1% now
  19. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' ES Zarzis win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 81%)
  20. 81′We said Réal Bamako at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  21. 82′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–9–91
  22. 92′A goal for Réal Bamako on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 2–96–2
  23. 92′4 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 2–96–2
  24. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Réal Bamako 2–2 ES Zarzis
  25. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was ES Zarzis win 97%)
  26. FTFULL TIME Réal Bamako 2–2 ES Zarzis
  27. FTRéal Bamako 2–2 ES Zarzis · Réal Bamako win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Réal Bamako are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Réal Bamako 45%, draw 32%, ES Zarzis 23%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Réal Bamako v ES ZarzisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Réal Bamako win45%
Draw32%
ES Zarzis win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00

Round2nd preliminary round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Réal Bamako

ES Zarzis

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · réal bamako winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off
45% The market55%
Us45%
Market55%

We make Réal Bamako a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Réal Bamako v ES Zarzis1.13 – 0.74
Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 4 SeptW2 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L2
The market · Réal Bamako win55% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 17:15
Our probability · Réal Bamako win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Réal Bamako win45%55%−10
Draw32%26%+6
ES Zarzis win23%19%+4
Over 2.5 goals29%46%−17
Both teams to score36%48%−12
Over 1.5 goals56%70%−14
Over 3.5 goals12%26%−14
Réal Bamako or draw77%81%−4
Réal Bamako clean sheet48%––
ES Zarzis clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.0%
0123450 15.8 10.9 4.2 1 17.0 13.3 4.7 2 9.9 7.3 2.7 3 3.7 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Réal Bamako down, ES Zarzis across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsESZ 1–3 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 4 Sept

RÉAL BAMAKO

WDW2–1 · 0–0 · 3–1

ES ZARZIS

WLL3–1 · 0–1 · 1–3