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Raja Casablanca v El Kanemi Warriors

Raja Casablanca
2–0Full time
El Kanemi Warriors

CAF Confederation Cup · FRI 23 OCT · Stade Mohamed V

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 00:00
Raja Casablanca 2–0 El Kanemi Warriors RAJA CASABLANCA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Raja Casablanca win84%
The market said85%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.044
The market’s Brier score0.035

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Raja Casablanca win at 84%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Raja Casablanca was 84% before kick-off and our model makes it 84% now. 0–0 · 84–13–4
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Raja Casablanca v El Kanemi Warriors
  4. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Raja Casablanca win: 84% at kick-off, 74% now
  5. 32′We said Raja Casablanca at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 72%. 0–0 · 72–23–5
  6. 38′We said Raja Casablanca at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 69–26–5
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Raja Casablanca 0–0 El Kanemi Warriors
  8. 46′We said Raja Casablanca at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–31–5
  9. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Raja Casablanca win: 84% at kick-off, 64% now
  10. 47′HALF-TIME Raja Casablanca 0–0 El Kanemi Warriors
  11. 54′We said Raja Casablanca at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 58%. 0–0 · 58–37–5
  12. 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 57–38–5
  13. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Raja Casablanca win: 84% at kick-off, 54% now
  14. 59′We said Raja Casablanca at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–42–5
  15. 63′We said Raja Casablanca at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–46–5
  16. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Raja Casablanca win 48%)
  17. 67′We said Raja Casablanca at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–51–5
  18. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Raja Casablanca win: 84% at kick-off, 44% now
  19. 71′We said Raja Casablanca at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–57–4
  20. 74′We said Raja Casablanca at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–62–4
  21. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Raja Casablanca win: 84% at kick-off, 34% now
  22. 77′We said Raja Casablanca at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–67–4
  23. 80′We said Raja Casablanca at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–74–3
  24. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Raja Casablanca win: 84% at kick-off, 23% now
  25. 82′We said Raja Casablanca at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–78–3
  26. 85′We said Raja Casablanca at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–84–2
  27. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Raja Casablanca win: 84% at kick-off, 14% now
  28. 87′We published Raja Casablanca at 84%. Our model now makes it 98%. 1–0 · 98–2–0
  29. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Raja Casablanca 1–0 El Kanemi Warriors
  30. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Raja Casablanca win: 84% at kick-off, 98% now
  31. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Raja Casablanca win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 87%)
  32. 89′Raja Casablanca score on 88′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0
  33. 94′We published Raja Casablanca at 84%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  34. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Raja Casablanca 2–0 El Kanemi Warriors
  35. 95′Raja Casablanca find the net on 90′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  36. 95′Full time, 2–0. We called Raja Casablanca at 84% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  37. FTFULL TIME Raja Casablanca 2–0 El Kanemi Warriors
  38. FTRaja Casablanca 2–0 El Kanemi Warriors · Raja Casablanca win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Raja Casablanca are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Raja Casablanca 84%, draw 13%, El Kanemi Warriors 4%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 28%.

The AI’s read on Raja Casablanca v El Kanemi WarriorsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Raja Casablanca win84%
Draw13%
El Kanemi Warriors win4%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 21:00

Round2nd preliminary round

VenueStade Mohamed V

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Raja Casablanca

El Kanemi Warriors

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · raja casablanca winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off
84% The market85%
Us84%
Market85%

We make Raja Casablanca an 84% chance to win. The market has them at 85%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.5–0.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Raja Casablanca v El Kanemi Warriors2.49 – 0.36
Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 6 SeptW0 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L1
The market · Raja Casablanca win85% · ours 84%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
80%85%90% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 20:24
Our probability · Raja Casablanca win The market, margin stripped

Published at 89%, 84% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 85% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Raja Casablanca win84%85%−1
Draw13%11%+2
El Kanemi Warriors win4%4%0
Over 2.5 goals54%64%−10
Both teams to score28%31%−3
Over 1.5 goals78%81%−3
Over 3.5 goals32%42%−10
Raja Casablanca or draw96%96%0
Raja Casablanca clean sheet70%––
El Kanemi Warriors clean sheet8%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 17.9%
0123450 5.9 1 14.2 5.4 2 17.9 6.5 3 14.8 5.4 4 9.2 3.4 5 4.6
under 2% 5% 12%+Raja Casablanca down, El Kanemi Warriors across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsELK 2–2 RAJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 6 Sept

RAJA CASABLANCA

D2–2

EL KANEMI WARRIORS

WLD3–0 · 0–1 · 2–2