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Model 1.1

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Masr v Azam

Masr
1–1Full time
Azam

CAF Confederation Cup · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01
Masr 1–1 Azam MASR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Masr win51%
The market said63%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.790
The market’s Brier score1.025

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Masr win at 51%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Masr 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–29–20
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Masr v Azam
  4. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Masr win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
  5. 41′We said Masr at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–44–17
  6. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Masr win 39%)
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Masr 1–0 Azam
  8. 46′Masr score on 45′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  9. 46′We said Masr at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  10. 46′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  11. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Masr 1–0 Azam
  12. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Masr win: 51% at kick-off, 83% now
  13. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Masr win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 14%)
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Masr 1–0 Azam
  15. 53′We said Masr at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  16. 58′Azam find the net on 58′. 1–1. 1–1 · 31–55–14
  17. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Masr 1–1 Azam
  18. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Masr win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
  19. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Masr win 31%)
  20. 59′We said Masr at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–56–14
  21. 60′We said Masr at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–57–14
  22. 67′We said Masr at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–64–12
  23. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Masr win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
  24. 73′We said Masr at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–71–10
  25. 79′We said Masr at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–80–7
  26. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Masr win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
  27. 83′We said Masr at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
  28. 90′We said Masr at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  29. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Masr win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
  30. FTFULL TIME Masr 1–1 Azam
  31. FTMasr 1–1 Azam · Masr win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Masr are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Masr 51%, draw 30%, Azam 19%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Masr v AzamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Masr win51%
Draw30%
Azam win19%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

Round2nd preliminary round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Masr

Azam

4Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League

Last match: 9 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · masr winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
51% The market63%
Us51%
Market63%

We make Masr a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Masr v Azam1.30 – 0.68
The market · Masr win63% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%50%60%70%80% 10 OCT 04:0216 OCT 17:45
Our probability · Masr win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Masr win51%63%−12
Draw30%22%+8
Azam win19%15%+4
Over 2.5 goals32%58%−26
Both teams to score36%53%−17
Over 1.5 goals59%79%−20
Over 3.5 goals14%38%−24
Masr or draw81%85%−4
Masr clean sheet51%––
Azam clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.5%
0123450 14.2 9.0 3.2 1 17.5 12.6 4.2 2 11.6 7.9 2.7 3 5.0 3.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Masr down, Azam across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 6 Sept

MASR

WD4–0 · 1–1

AZAM

No matches in our record yet.