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Kitara v Al Ahly
KitaraAl AhlyCAF Confederation Cup · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Ahly win at 94%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Al Ahly 94% before kick-off, 94% now. 0–0 · 1–5–94
- 1′KICK-OFF Kitara v Al Ahly
- 31′A goal for Kitara on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 14–22–64
- 31′We said Al Ahly at 94%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 1–0 · 14–22–64
- 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Kitara 1–0 Al Ahly
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Al Ahly win: 94% at kick-off, 64% now
- 37′We said Al Ahly at 94%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 1–0 · 16–25–59
- 42′We said Al Ahly at 94%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–0 · 19–27–54
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Al Ahly win: 94% at kick-off, 54% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Kitara 1–0 Al Ahly
- 45′SECOND HALF Kitara 1–0 Al Ahly
- 47′We said Al Ahly at 94%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–0 · 22–29–49
- 51′A goal for Kitara on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 25–31–44
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Al Ahly win: 94% at kick-off, 44% now
- 52′We said Al Ahly at 94%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–0 · 25–32–43
- 55′We said Al Ahly at 94%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–0 · 28–33–39
- 59′We said Al Ahly at 94%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 32–34–34
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Al Ahly win: 94% at kick-off, 34% now
- 63′We said Al Ahly at 94%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 36–35–29
- 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Kitara win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Al Ahly win 25%)
- 67′Al Ahly find the net on 67′. 1–0 · 42–35–23
- 67′We said Al Ahly at 94%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 42–35–23
- 67′We said Al Ahly at 94%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 58%. 1–1 · 3–38–58
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Al Ahly win: 94% at kick-off, 23% now
- 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Kitara 1–1 Al Ahly
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Al Ahly win: 94% at kick-off, 58% now
- 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Al Ahly win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Kitara win 3%)
- 70′We said Al Ahly at 94%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 3–43–54
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Al Ahly win: 94% at kick-off, 54% now
- 73′We said Al Ahly at 94%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 1–1 · 3–48–48
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Al Ahly win: 94% at kick-off, 44% now
- 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Al Ahly win 44%)
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Al Ahly win: 94% at kick-off, 33% now
- 82′Little has changed for our model: Al Ahly 94% before kick-off, 98% now. 1–2 · 0–2–98
- 82′Al Ahly find the net on 82′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
- 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Kitara 1–2 Al Ahly
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Al Ahly win: 94% at kick-off, 98% now
- 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Al Ahly win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
- 98′1–2 at the end. Our 94% on Al Ahly comes in. 1–2 · 0–0–100
- FTFULL TIME Kitara 1–2 Al Ahly
- FTKitara 1–2 Al Ahly · Al Ahly win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 0–3 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassAl Ahly are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Kitara 1%, draw 5%, Al Ahly 94%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 29%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Kitara win1%Al Ahly win94%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00
Round2nd preliminary round
Match timeline
All events
KitaraMINAl AhlyEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Kitara
Al Ahly
Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Uganda)
Last match: 11 Oct · the Egyptian Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Al Ahly a 94% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 32 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.3–3.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 93%, 94% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kitara win | 1% | 13% | −12 |
| Draw | 5% | 25% | −20 |
| Al Ahly win | 94% | 62% | +32 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 45% | +32 |
| Both teams to score | 29% | 43% | −14 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | 69% | +22 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 26% | +32 |
| Kitara or draw | 6% | 38% | −32 |
| Kitara clean sheet | 2% | – | – |
| Al Ahly clean sheet | 71% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2023/24No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 6 Sept
KITARA
AL AHLY
No matches in our record yet.