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Model 1.2

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Kaizer Chiefs v Red Arrows

Kaizer Chiefs
1–0After penalties
Red Arrows

CAF Confederation Cup · FRI 23 OCT · FNB Stadium

After 90 minutesGraded 23 Oct 19:31
Kaizer Chiefs 1–0 Red Arrows KAIZER CHIEFS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Kaizer Chiefs win53%
The market said72%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.342
The market’s Brier score0.120

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–0, the score after 90 minutes. Red Arrows won 2–3 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kaizer Chiefs win at 53%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Kaizer Chiefs v Red Arrows
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Kaizer Chiefs was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–30–17
  4. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Kaizer Chiefs win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
  5. 38′We said Kaizer Chiefs at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–43–16
  6. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Kaizer Chiefs win 42%)
  7. 43′We said Kaizer Chiefs at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–46–15
  8. 45′SECOND HALF Kaizer Chiefs 0–0 Red Arrows
  9. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Kaizer Chiefs win: 53% at kick-off, 85% now
  10. 46′PENALTY MISSED · 90+16' Kaizer Chiefs
  11. 47′HALF-TIME Kaizer Chiefs 0–0 Red Arrows
  12. 53′We said Kaizer Chiefs at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–52–14
  13. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Kaizer Chiefs win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
  14. 61′We said Kaizer Chiefs at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–59–12
  15. 65′We published Kaizer Chiefs at 53%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–10–1
  16. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Kaizer Chiefs 1–0 Red Arrows
  17. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Kaizer Chiefs win: 53% at kick-off, 89% now
  18. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Kaizer Chiefs win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 63%)
  19. 66′A goal for Kaizer Chiefs on 66′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 89–10–1
  20. 66′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 89–10–1
  21. 68′We published Kaizer Chiefs at 53%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  22. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Kaizer Chiefs win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
  23. 81′We published Kaizer Chiefs at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  24. 103′PENALTY MISSED · 90+12' Kaizer Chiefs
  25. 103′PENALTY MISSED · 90+13' Red Arrows
  26. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  27. FTFULL TIME Kaizer Chiefs 1–0 Red Arrows
  28. FTKaizer Chiefs 1–0 Red Arrows after 90 minutes, as graded · Kaizer Chiefs win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kaizer Chiefs are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kaizer Chiefs 53%, draw 30%, Red Arrows 17%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Kaizer Chiefs v Red ArrowsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kaizer Chiefs win53%
Draw30%
Red Arrows win17%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

Round2nd preliminary round

VenueFNB Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kaizer Chiefs

Red Arrows

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kaizer chiefs winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
53% The market72%
Us53%
Market72%

We make Kaizer Chiefs a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kaizer Chiefs v Red Arrows1.30 – 0.61
Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 5 SeptW0 D0 L1 · W3 D0 L0
The market · Kaizer Chiefs win72% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%60%70%80%90% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 16:50
Our probability · Kaizer Chiefs win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kaizer Chiefs win53%72%−19
Draw30%19%+11
Red Arrows win17%9%+8
Over 2.5 goals30%47%−17
Both teams to score34%36%−2
Over 1.5 goals57%71%−14
Over 3.5 goals13%27%−14
Kaizer Chiefs or draw83%91%−8
Kaizer Chiefs clean sheet54%––
Red Arrows clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.8%
0123450 15.2 8.7 2.8 1 18.8 12.2 3.6 2 12.4 7.6 2.3 3 5.4 3.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kaizer Chiefs down, Red Arrows across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsRED 1–0 KAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 5 Sept

KAIZER CHIEFS

L0–1

RED ARROWS

WWW2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0