Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › CAF Confederation Cup › Kabuscorp v Maniema Union

Back

Kabuscorp v Maniema Union

Kabuscorp
1–4Full time
Maniema Union

CAF Confederation Cup · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
Kabuscorp 1–4 Maniema Union DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said a draw37%
The market said30%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.640
The market’s Brier score0.955

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 37%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: the draw was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 28–37–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Kabuscorp v Maniema Union
  4. 28′A goal for Maniema Union on 28′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–19–75
  5. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Kabuscorp 0–1 Maniema Union
  6. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 19% now
  7. 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Maniema Union win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 19%)
  8. 29′We said the draw at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 5–19–76
  9. 36′Goals are coming at about the 1.5 we expected. 0–1 · 4–19–77
  10. 39′Maniema Union score on 39′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
  11. 39′We said the draw at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 1–4–96
  12. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Kabuscorp 0–2 Maniema Union
  13. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 4% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Kabuscorp 0–2 Maniema Union
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Kabuscorp 0–2 Maniema Union
  16. 64′Maniema Union find the net on 64′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  17. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Kabuscorp 0–3 Maniema Union
  18. 66′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.5 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  19. 71′A goal for Maniema Union on 71′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  20. 71′4 goals already, more than the 1.5 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  21. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Kabuscorp 0–4 Maniema Union
  22. 84′Kabuscorp score on 84′ to make it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  23. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Kabuscorp 1–4 Maniema Union
  24. 86′That is 5, and we only asked for 1.5 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  25. FTFULL TIME Kabuscorp 1–4 Maniema Union
  26. FTKabuscorp 1–4 Maniema Union · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Kabuscorp 28%, draw 37%, Maniema Union 35%. Over 2.5 goals 20%, both teams to score 29%.

The AI’s read on Kabuscorp v Maniema UnionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kabuscorp win28%
Draw37%
Maniema Union win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

Round2nd preliminary round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kabuscorp

Maniema Union

5Days since last match120

Last match: 13 Oct · Girabola

Last match: 20 June · Ligue 1 (Congo DR)

3Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
37% The market30%
Us37%
Market30%

We make the draw a 37% chance. The market has it at 30%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kabuscorp v Maniema Union0.71 – 0.83
The market · Draw30% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 15:53
Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kabuscorp win28%49%−21
Draw37%30%+7
Maniema Union win35%21%+14
Over 2.5 goals20%38%−18
Both teams to score29%43%−14
Over 1.5 goals46%63%−17
Over 3.5 goals7%19%−12
Kabuscorp or draw65%79%−14
Kabuscorp clean sheet44%––
Maniema Union clean sheet49%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 21.9%
0123450 21.9 17.4 7.3 2.0 1 14.9 13.0 5.2 2 5.4 4.5 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kabuscorp down, Maniema Union across0–5 goals a side shown (100.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 5 Sept

KABUSCORP

WW2–0 · 3–1

MANIEMA UNION

No matches in our record yet.