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ES Zarzis v Réal Bamako

ES Zarzis
1–3Full time
Réal Bamako

CAF Confederation Cup · SAT 17 OCT · Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
ES Zarzis 1–3 Réal Bamako ES ZARZIS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said ES Zarzis win40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.828

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said ES Zarzis win at 40%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF ES Zarzis v Réal Bamako
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: ES Zarzis was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–34–26
  4. 24′A goal for Réal Bamako on 24′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–25–64
  5. 24′We said ES Zarzis at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–64
  6. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' ES Zarzis 0–1 Réal Bamako
  7. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' ES Zarzis win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
  8. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Réal Bamako win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was ES Zarzis win 11%)
  9. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' ES Zarzis win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
  10. 31′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 10–24–66
  11. 32′We said ES Zarzis at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
  12. 45′Réal Bamako score on 45′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
  13. 45′We said ES Zarzis at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
  14. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' ES Zarzis 0–2 Réal Bamako
  15. 45′HALF-TIME ES Zarzis 0–3 Réal Bamako
  16. 46′SECOND HALF ES Zarzis 0–3 Réal Bamako
  17. 48′Réal Bamako find the net on 45′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  18. 48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' ES Zarzis 0–3 Réal Bamako
  19. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' ES Zarzis win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
  20. 49′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  21. 93′A goal for ES Zarzis on 90′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  22. 93′4 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  23. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' ES Zarzis 1–3 Réal Bamako
  24. FTFULL TIME ES Zarzis 1–3 Réal Bamako
  25. FTES Zarzis 1–3 Réal Bamako · ES Zarzis win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ES Zarzis are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ES Zarzis 40%, draw 34%, Réal Bamako 26%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on ES Zarzis v Réal BamakoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

ES Zarzis win40%
Draw34%
Réal Bamako win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

Round2nd preliminary round

VenueAbdessalem Kazouz Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ES Zarzis

Réal Bamako

6Days since last match36

Last match: 11 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

Last match: 11 Sept · CAF Confederation Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · es zarzis winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
40% The market–
Us40%

We make ES Zarzis a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · ES Zarzis v Réal Bamako1.01 – 0.75
Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 4 SeptW1 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 15:16
Our probability · ES Zarzis win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
ES Zarzis win40%––
Draw34%––
Réal Bamako win26%––
Over 2.5 goals26%––
Both teams to score34%––
Over 1.5 goals53%––
Over 3.5 goals10%––
ES Zarzis or draw74%––
ES Zarzis clean sheet47%––
Réal Bamako clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.7%
0123450 17.7 12.4 4.8 1 17.0 13.4 4.9 2 8.8 6.6 2.5 3 3.0 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+ES Zarzis down, Réal Bamako across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 4 Sept

ES ZARZIS

WL3–1 · 0–1

RÉAL BAMAKO

WD2–1 · 0–0