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Model 1.2

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El Kanemi Warriors v Raja Casablanca

El Kanemi Warriors
2–2Full time
Raja Casablanca

CAF Confederation Cup · SUN 18 OCT · El-Kanemi Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
El Kanemi Warriors 2–2 Raja Casablanca RAJA CASABLANCA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Raja Casablanca win80%
The market said69%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.363
The market’s Brier score1.115

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Raja Casablanca win at 80%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Raja Casablanca 80% before kick-off, 80% now. 0–0 · 5–15–80
  3. 1′KICK-OFF El Kanemi Warriors v Raja Casablanca
  4. 7′El Kanemi Warriors find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 22–26–52
  5. 7′We said Raja Casablanca at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 52%. 1–0 · 22–26–52
  6. 7′⚽ GOAL · 6' El Kanemi Warriors 1–0 Raja Casablanca
  7. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Raja Casablanca win: 80% at kick-off, 52% now
  8. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Raja Casablanca win: 80% at kick-off, 50% now
  9. 13′We said Raja Casablanca at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–0 · 24–27–49
  10. 21′We said Raja Casablanca at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–0 · 27–29–44
  11. 23′A goal for Raja Casablanca on 23′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 6–22–73
  12. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' El Kanemi Warriors 1–1 Raja Casablanca
  13. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Raja Casablanca win: 80% at kick-off, 73% now
  14. 32′We said Raja Casablanca at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 68%. 1–1 · 6–26–68
  15. 40′We said Raja Casablanca at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 1–1 · 6–30–64
  16. 45′HALF-TIME El Kanemi Warriors 1–1 Raja Casablanca
  17. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Raja Casablanca win: 80% at kick-off, 60% now
  18. 46′SECOND HALF El Kanemi Warriors 1–1 Raja Casablanca
  19. 47′We said Raja Casablanca at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 1–1 · 6–35–59
  20. 56′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 6–42–52
  21. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Raja Casablanca win: 80% at kick-off, 50% now
  22. 61′Raja Casablanca score on 61′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–94
  23. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' El Kanemi Warriors 1–2 Raja Casablanca
  24. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Raja Casablanca win: 80% at kick-off, 94% now
  25. 62′We said Raja Casablanca at 80% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 1–2 · 0–5–94
  26. 62′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–5–94
  27. 64′We said Raja Casablanca at 80% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  28. 83′El Kanemi Warriors find the net on 83′. 2–2. 2–2 · 2–82–16
  29. 83′We said Raja Casablanca at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 2–2 · 2–82–16
  30. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' El Kanemi Warriors 2–2 Raja Casablanca
  31. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Raja Casablanca win: 80% at kick-off, 16% now
  32. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Raja Casablanca win 16%)
  33. 84′We said Raja Casablanca at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 2–84–14
  34. 84′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 2–84–14
  35. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Raja Casablanca win: 80% at kick-off, 10% now
  36. 88′We said Raja Casablanca at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 1–89–9
  37. 93′We said Raja Casablanca at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 1–96–4
  38. FTFULL TIME El Kanemi Warriors 2–2 Raja Casablanca
  39. FTEl Kanemi Warriors 2–2 Raja Casablanca · Raja Casablanca win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Raja Casablanca are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: El Kanemi Warriors 5%, draw 15%, Raja Casablanca 80%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 28%.

The AI’s read on El Kanemi Warriors v Raja CasablancaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

El Kanemi Warriors win5%
Draw15%
Raja Casablanca win80%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

Round2nd preliminary round

VenueEl-Kanemi Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

El Kanemi Warriors

Raja Casablanca

35Days since last match5

Last match: 13 Sept · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 13 Oct · Botola Pro

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · raja casablanca winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:26 · locked at kick-off
80% The market69%
Us80%
Market69%

We make Raja Casablanca an 80% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.4–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · El Kanemi Warriors v Raja Casablanca0.37 – 2.24
The market · Raja Casablanca win69% · ours 80%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75%80%85% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 15:53
Our probability · Raja Casablanca win The market, margin stripped

Published at 81%, 80% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
El Kanemi Warriors win5%10%−5
Draw15%21%−6
Raja Casablanca win80%69%+11
Over 2.5 goals48%48%0
Both teams to score28%37%−9
Over 1.5 goals74%70%+4
Over 3.5 goals27%28%−1
El Kanemi Warriors or draw20%31%−11
El Kanemi Warriors clean sheet11%––
Raja Casablanca clean sheet69%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 18.4%
0123450 7.6 16.3 18.4 13.7 7.7 3.41 2.5 6.3 6.8 5.1 2.9 2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+El Kanemi Warriors down, Raja Casablanca across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 6 Sept

EL KANEMI WARRIORS

WL3–0 · 0–1

RAJA CASABLANCA

No matches in our record yet.