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Diarra v ASC Kara
DiarraASC KaraCAF Confederation Cup · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said ASC Kara win at 39%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Diarra v ASC Kara
- 2′Little has changed for our model: ASC Kara 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 30–31–39
- 15′A goal for Diarra on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–23–14
- 15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Diarra 1–0 ASC Kara
- 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' ASC Kara win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
- 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Diarra win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was ASC Kara win 14%)
- 16′We said ASC Kara at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
- 29′Diarra score on 29′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
- 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Diarra 2–0 ASC Kara
- 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' ASC Kara win: 39% at kick-off, 3% now
- 30′We said ASC Kara at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 89–8–2
- 42′Diarra find the net on 42′. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–1–0
- 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Diarra 3–0 ASC Kara
- 43′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 45′HALF-TIME Diarra 3–1 ASC Kara
- 46′A goal for ASC Kara on 45′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 93–6–1
- 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Diarra 3–1 ASC Kara
- 47′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 93–6–1
- 47′SECOND HALF Diarra 3–1 ASC Kara
- 58′ASC Kara score on 58′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 75–20–5
- 58′We said ASC Kara at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 3–2 · 75–20–5
- 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Diarra 3–2 ASC Kara
- 59′5 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 75–20–4
- 65′ASC Kara are down to ten from 64′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–2 · 79–18–3
- 65′🟥 RED CARD · 64' ASC Kara
- FTFULL TIME Diarra 3–2 ASC Kara
- FTDiarra 3–2 ASC Kara · ASC Kara win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
ASC Kara are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Diarra 30%, draw 31%, ASC Kara 39%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Diarra win30%ASC Kara win39%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:30
Round2nd preliminary round
Match timeline
All events
DiarraMINASC KaraEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Diarra
ASC Kara
Last match: 13 Sept · CAF Confederation Cup
Last match: 13 Sept · CAF Confederation Cup
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make ASC Kara a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 41%, 39% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diarra win | 30% | – | – |
| Draw | 31% | – | – |
| ASC Kara win | 39% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 42% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | – | – |
| Diarra or draw | 61% | – | – |
| Diarra clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
| ASC Kara clean sheet | 38% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2024/25No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 5 Sept
DIARRA
ASC KARA