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Model 1.2

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ASC Kara v Diarra

ASC Kara
15:30Upcoming
Diarra

CAF Confederation Cup · SUN 25 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ASC KaraDrawDiarra
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30
Before kick-off · Match result · ASC Kara 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ASC Kara are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ASC Kara 47%, draw 28%, Diarra 25%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on ASC Kara v DiarraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

ASC Kara win47%
Draw28%
Diarra win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

Round2nd preliminary round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ASC Kara

Diarra

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asc kara winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 24 Oct 00:27 · locked at kick-off
47% The market–
Us47%

We make ASC Kara a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · ASC Kara v Diarra1.42 – 0.95
Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 5 SeptW2 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50% 19 OCT 01:3725 OCT 00:56
Our probability · ASC Kara win

Published at 48%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
ASC Kara win47%––
Draw28%––
Diarra win25%––
Over 2.5 goals42%––
Both teams to score47%––
Over 1.5 goals69%––
Over 3.5 goals21%––
ASC Kara or draw75%––
ASC Kara clean sheet39%––
Diarra clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 9.8 8.5 4.2 1 12.9 13.0 6.0 2 9.4 8.9 4.2 3 4.4 4.2 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+ASC Kara down, Diarra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024/25
Goals a meeting5.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsDIA 3–2 ASC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 5 Sept

ASC KARA

WWL5–0 · 1–0 · 2–3

DIARRA

WDW1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2