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Model 1.2

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Al Ahli Tripoli v Welwalo Adigrat Uni

Al Ahli Tripoli
4–1Full time
Welwalo Adigrat Uni

CAF Confederation Cup · SAT 24 OCT · Tripoli International Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41
Al Ahli Tripoli 4–1 Welwalo Adigrat Uni AL AHLI TRIPOLI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Ahli Tripoli win93%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.008

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Ahli Tripoli are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Ahli Tripoli 93%, draw 6%, Welwalo Adigrat Uni 1%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 23%.

The AI’s read on Al Ahli Tripoli v Welwalo Adigrat UniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Al Ahli Tripoli win93%
Draw6%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni win1%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00

Round2nd preliminary round

VenueTripoli International Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Ahli Tripoli

Welwalo Adigrat Uni

8Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 16 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al ahli tripoli winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off
93% The market–
Us93%

We make Al Ahli Tripoli a 93% chance to win. The model expects 3.4–0.3, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al Ahli Tripoli v Welwalo Adigrat Uni3.36 – 0.27
Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 4 SeptW3 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
90%95% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 17:15
Our probability · Al Ahli Tripoli win

Published at 92%, 93% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Ahli Tripoli win93%––
Draw6%––
Welwalo Adigrat Uni win1%––
Over 2.5 goals70%––
Both teams to score23%––
Over 1.5 goals88%––
Over 3.5 goals49%––
Al Ahli Tripoli or draw99%––
Al Ahli Tripoli clean sheet77%––
Welwalo Adigrat Uni clean sheet3%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 16.8%
0123450 2.7 1 8.8 2.4 2 15.0 4.0 3 16.8 4.5 4 14.2 3.8 5 9.6 2.5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Ahli Tripoli down, Welwalo Adigrat Uni across0–5 goals a side shown (87.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024/25
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsWEL 0–4 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 4 Sept

AL AHLI TRIPOLI

WWW3–0 · 4–0 · 4–0

WELWALO ADIGRAT UNI

LWL1–2 · 2–1 · 0–4