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Model 1.2

Home › Football › CAF Confederation Cup › AFAD v CS Sfaxien

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AFAD v CS Sfaxien

AFAD
1–1Full time
CS Sfaxien

CAF Confederation Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40
AFAD 1–1 CS Sfaxien CS SFAXIEN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said CS Sfaxien win39%
The market said29%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.669
The market’s Brier score0.696

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said CS Sfaxien win at 39%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: CS Sfaxien was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 27–34–39
  3. 1′KICK-OFF AFAD v CS Sfaxien
  4. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was CS Sfaxien win 35%)
  5. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' CS Sfaxien win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME AFAD 0–0 CS Sfaxien
  7. 46′SECOND HALF AFAD 0–0 CS Sfaxien
  8. 50′We said CS Sfaxien at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 20–53–27
  9. 51′CS Sfaxien find the net on 51′. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  10. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' AFAD 0–1 CS Sfaxien
  11. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' CS Sfaxien win: 39% at kick-off, 80% now
  12. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' CS Sfaxien win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
  13. 52′We published CS Sfaxien at 39%. Our model now makes it 81%. 0–1 · 3–17–81
  14. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' CS Sfaxien win: 39% at kick-off, 81% now
  15. 53′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 3–16–81
  16. 65′We published CS Sfaxien at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  17. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' CS Sfaxien win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
  18. 75′We published CS Sfaxien at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  19. 80′A goal for AFAD on 79′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 7–83–10
  20. 80′We said CS Sfaxien at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 7–83–10
  21. 80′⚽ GOAL · 79' AFAD 1–1 CS Sfaxien
  22. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' CS Sfaxien win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
  23. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 83% (was CS Sfaxien win 10%)
  24. 81′We said CS Sfaxien at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–84–9
  25. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' CS Sfaxien win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  26. 88′We said CS Sfaxien at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
  27. FTFULL TIME AFAD 1–1 CS Sfaxien
  28. FTAFAD 1–1 CS Sfaxien · CS Sfaxien win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CS Sfaxien are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AFAD 27%, draw 34%, CS Sfaxien 39%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on AFAD v CS SfaxienBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

AFAD win27%
Draw34%
CS Sfaxien win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

Round2nd preliminary round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AFAD

CS Sfaxien

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 1 (Tunisia)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cs sfaxien winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
39% The market29%
Us39%
Market29%

We make CS Sfaxien a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · AFAD v CS Sfaxien0.78 – 1.01
Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 5 SeptW0 D2 L0 · W1 D0 L1
The market · CS Sfaxien win29% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 16:12
Our probability · CS Sfaxien win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
AFAD win27%39%−12
Draw34%32%+2
CS Sfaxien win39%29%+10
Over 2.5 goals27%35%−8
Both teams to score35%43%−8
Over 1.5 goals54%60%−6
Over 3.5 goals11%18%−7
AFAD or draw61%71%−10
AFAD clean sheet37%––
CS Sfaxien clean sheet46%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.2%
0123450 17.2 16.5 8.5 2.8 1 12.6 13.6 6.6 2.2 2 5.1 5.1 2.6 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+AFAD down, CS Sfaxien across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Confederation Cup this season · since 5 Sept

AFAD

DD1–1 · 2–2

CS SFAXIEN

LW0–1 · 2–0