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Model 1.2

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Teungueth v Colombe

Teungueth
0–2Full time
Colombe

CAF Champions League · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:31
Teungueth 0–2 Colombe DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said a draw44%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.682
The market’s Brier score0.696

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 44%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: the draw was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 22–45–34
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Teungueth v Colombe
  4. 14′A goal for Colombe on 14′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–17–79
  5. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Teungueth 0–1 Colombe
  6. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Draw: 44% at kick-off, 17% now
  7. 14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Colombe win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
  8. 15′We said the draw at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
  9. 40′We said the draw at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 2–14–84
  10. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Draw: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Teungueth 0–1 Colombe
  12. 46′Colombe score on 46′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  13. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Teungueth 0–2 Colombe
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Teungueth 0–2 Colombe
  15. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Draw: 44% at kick-off, 2% now
  16. 48′We said the draw at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 0–1–98
  17. 49′Goals are coming at about the 1.1 we expected. 0–1 · 1–13–85
  18. FTFULL TIME Teungueth 0–2 Colombe
  19. FTTeungueth 0–2 Colombe · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Teungueth 22%, draw 44%, Colombe 34%. Over 2.5 goals 10%, both teams to score 18%.

The AI’s read on Teungueth v ColombeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Teungueth win22%
Draw44%
Colombe win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:00

Round2nd preliminary round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Teungueth

Colombe

35Days since last match35

Last match: 13 Sept · CAF Champions League

Last match: 13 Sept · CAF Champions League

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
44% The market34%
Us44%
Market34%

We make the draw a 44% chance. The market has it at 34%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.5–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Teungueth v Colombe0.46 – 0.65
Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 5 SeptW2 D0 L0 · W0 D2 L0
The market · Draw34% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 17:50
Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Teungueth win22%34%−12
Draw44%34%+10
Colombe win34%32%+2
Over 2.5 goals10%30%−20
Both teams to score18%39%−21
Over 1.5 goals31%55%−24
Over 3.5 goals3%14%−11
Teungueth or draw66%68%−2
Teungueth clean sheet52%––
Colombe clean sheet63%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 33.3%
0123450 33.3 21.0 6.9 1 15.0 10.2 3.2 2 3.5 2.3 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Teungueth down, Colombe across0–5 goals a side shown (100.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 5 Sept

TEUNGUETH

WW1–0 · 1–0

COLOMBE

DD0–0 · 0–0