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San-Pédro v Nouadhibou
San-PédroNouadhibouCAF Champions League · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Nouadhibou win at 40%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Nouadhibou was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 31–30–40
- 1′KICK-OFF San-Pédro v Nouadhibou
- 14′San-Pédro score on 14′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 62–23–15
- 14′We said Nouadhibou at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 62–23–15
- 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' San-Pédro 1–0 Nouadhibou
- 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Nouadhibou win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
- 14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' San-Pédro win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Nouadhibou win 15%)
- 16′We said Nouadhibou at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 65–23–12
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Nouadhibou win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
- 40′We said Nouadhibou at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
- 40′Nouadhibou find the net on 40′. 1–1. 1–1 · 26–41–33
- 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' San-Pédro 1–1 Nouadhibou
- 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Nouadhibou win: 40% at kick-off, 33% now
- 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was San-Pédro win 26%)
- 45′HALF-TIME San-Pédro 1–1 Nouadhibou
- 46′SECOND HALF San-Pédro 1–1 Nouadhibou
- 53′We said Nouadhibou at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 23–49–28
- 62′We said Nouadhibou at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 20–56–24
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Nouadhibou win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Nouadhibou win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
- 89′We said Nouadhibou at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
- 95′A goal for San-Pédro on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
- 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' San-Pédro 2–1 Nouadhibou
- 95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+5' Nouadhibou win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
- 95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' San-Pédro win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
- 96′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 99–1–0
- FTFULL TIME San-Pédro 2–1 Nouadhibou
- FTSan-Pédro 2–1 Nouadhibou · Nouadhibou win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassNouadhibou are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: San-Pédro 31%, draw 29%, Nouadhibou 40%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
San-Pédro win31%Nouadhibou win40%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00
Round2nd preliminary round
Match timeline
All events
San-PédroMINNouadhibouEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
San-Pédro
Nouadhibou
Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)
Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Mauritania)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Nouadhibou a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 41%, 40% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| San-Pédro win | 31% | – | – |
| Draw | 29% | – | – |
| Nouadhibou win | 40% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 46% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | – | – |
| San-Pédro or draw | 60% | – | – |
| San-Pédro clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
| Nouadhibou clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2020No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 5 Sept
SAN-PÉDRO
NOUADHIBOU