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Model 1.2

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MC Alger v Enugu Rangers

MC Alger
3–0Full time
Enugu Rangers

CAF Champions League · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30
MC Alger 3–0 Enugu Rangers MC ALGER WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said MC Alger win63%
The market said82%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.212
The market’s Brier score0.050

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said MC Alger win at 63%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: MC Alger was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–26–11
  3. 1′KICK-OFF MC Alger v Enugu Rangers
  4. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' MC Alger win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
  5. 34′We said MC Alger at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 51%. 0–0 · 51–37–12
  6. 39′We said MC Alger at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–40–11
  7. 45′HALF-TIME MC Alger 0–0 Enugu Rangers
  8. 46′SECOND HALF MC Alger 0–0 Enugu Rangers
  9. 48′We said MC Alger at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–45–11
  10. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' MC Alger win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
  11. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was MC Alger win 45%)
  12. 55′We said MC Alger at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–50–10
  13. 58′MC Alger score on 58′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  14. 58′We published MC Alger at 63%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  15. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' MC Alger 1–0 Enugu Rangers
  16. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' MC Alger win: 63% at kick-off, 90% now
  17. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' MC Alger win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 53%)
  18. 60′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  19. 70′PENALTY MISSED · 70' MC Alger
  20. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' MC Alger win: 63% at kick-off, 93% now
  21. 78′We published MC Alger at 63%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  22. 85′MC Alger find the net on 85′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  23. 85′We published MC Alger at 63%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  24. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' MC Alger 2–0 Enugu Rangers
  25. 93′A goal for MC Alger on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  26. 93′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  27. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' MC Alger 3–0 Enugu Rangers
  28. FTFULL TIME MC Alger 3–0 Enugu Rangers
  29. FTMC Alger 3–0 Enugu Rangers · MC Alger win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

MC Alger are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MC Alger 63%, draw 25%, Enugu Rangers 11%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on MC Alger v Enugu RangersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

MC Alger win63%
Draw25%
Enugu Rangers win11%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 20:00

Round2nd preliminary round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MC Alger

Enugu Rangers

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Champions League

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Champions League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mc alger winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off
63% The market82%
Us63%
Market82%

We make MC Alger a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · MC Alger v Enugu Rangers1.57 – 0.50
Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 6 SeptW1 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L0
The market · MC Alger win82% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75%80%85% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 19:53
Our probability · MC Alger win The market, margin stripped

Published at 71%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 82% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
MC Alger win63%82%−19
Draw25%13%+12
Enugu Rangers win11%5%+6
Over 2.5 goals34%58%−24
Both teams to score32%32%0
Over 1.5 goals62%80%−18
Over 3.5 goals16%38%−22
MC Alger or draw89%95%−6
MC Alger clean sheet60%––
Enugu Rangers clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.4%
0123450 12.9 6.0 1 19.4 10.3 2.5 2 15.5 7.8 3 8.1 4.1 4 3.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+MC Alger down, Enugu Rangers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsENU 2–0 MCA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 6 Sept

MC ALGER

DWL0–0 · 5–0 · 0–2

ENUGU RANGERS

DDW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0