Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › CAF Champions League › Maghreb Fès v ASEC Mimosas

Back

Maghreb Fès v ASEC Mimosas

Maghreb Fès
1–1Full time
ASEC Mimosas

CAF Champions League · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:31
Maghreb Fès 1–1 ASEC Mimosas MAGHREB FÈS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Maghreb Fès win52%
The market said63%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.788
The market’s Brier score0.943

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Maghreb Fès win at 52%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Maghreb Fès 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–30–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Maghreb Fès v ASEC Mimosas
  4. 32′A goal for Maghreb Fès on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  5. 32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Maghreb Fès 1–0 ASEC Mimosas
  6. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Maghreb Fès win: 52% at kick-off, 83% now
  7. 33′We said Maghreb Fès at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  8. 33′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  9. 45′We said Maghreb Fès at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Maghreb Fès 1–0 ASEC Mimosas
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Maghreb Fès 1–0 ASEC Mimosas
  12. 69′We said Maghreb Fès at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  13. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Maghreb Fès win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
  14. 81′We said Maghreb Fès at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  15. 93′ASEC Mimosas score on 90′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
  16. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Maghreb Fès 1–1 ASEC Mimosas
  17. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Maghreb Fès win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
  18. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Maghreb Fès win 2%)
  19. 94′We said Maghreb Fès at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–1 · 1–98–1
  20. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Maghreb Fès win: 52% at kick-off, 1% now
  21. FTFULL TIME Maghreb Fès 1–1 ASEC Mimosas
  22. FTMaghreb Fès 1–1 ASEC Mimosas · Maghreb Fès win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maghreb Fès are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maghreb Fès 52%, draw 30%, ASEC Mimosas 18%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Maghreb Fès v ASEC MimosasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Maghreb Fès win52%
Draw30%
ASEC Mimosas win18%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00

Round2nd preliminary round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maghreb Fès

ASEC Mimosas

4Days since last match8

Last match: 14 Oct · Botola Pro

Last match: 10 Oct · Ligue 1 (Ivory Coast)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maghreb fès winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
52% The market63%
Us52%
Market63%

We make Maghreb Fès a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Maghreb Fès v ASEC Mimosas1.28 – 0.62
Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 6 SeptW1 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L0
The market · Maghreb Fès win63% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 18:56
Our probability · Maghreb Fès win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Maghreb Fès win52%63%−11
Draw30%27%+3
ASEC Mimosas win18%10%+8
Over 2.5 goals30%29%+1
Both teams to score34%25%+9
Over 1.5 goals57%53%+4
Over 3.5 goals13%14%−1
Maghreb Fès or draw82%90%−8
Maghreb Fès clean sheet54%––
ASEC Mimosas clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.7%
0123450 15.3 9.0 2.9 1 18.7 12.3 3.7 2 12.2 7.6 2.4 3 5.2 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Maghreb Fès down, ASEC Mimosas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 6 Sept

MAGHREB FÈS

WD4–1 · 0–0

ASEC MIMOSAS

DW1–1 · 2–1