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Model 1.2

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Horoya v Al Merreikh

Horoya
1–0Full time
Al Merreikh

CAF Champions League · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31
Horoya 1–0 Al Merreikh HOROYA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Horoya win47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.435

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Horoya win at 47%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Horoya was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–33–20
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Horoya v Al Merreikh
  4. 32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Horoya win 38%)
  5. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Horoya win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  6. 40′We said Horoya at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–47–17
  7. 41′Horoya find the net on 41′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  8. 41′We published Horoya at 47%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  9. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Horoya 1–0 Al Merreikh
  10. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Horoya win: 47% at kick-off, 83% now
  11. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Horoya win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 14%)
  12. 42′Goals are coming at about the 1.7 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Horoya 1–0 Al Merreikh
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Horoya 1–0 Al Merreikh
  15. 58′We published Horoya at 47%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–1
  16. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Horoya win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
  17. 70′We published Horoya at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  18. 81′We published Horoya at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  19. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Horoya win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  20. FTFULL TIME Horoya 1–0 Al Merreikh
  21. FTHoroya 1–0 Al Merreikh · Horoya win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Horoya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Horoya 47%, draw 33%, Al Merreikh 20%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on Horoya v Al MerreikhBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Horoya win47%
Draw33%
Al Merreikh win20%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

Round2nd preliminary round

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Horoya

Al Merreikh

35Days since last match30

Last match: 13 Sept · CAF Champions League

Last match: 18 Sept · National Soccer League

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · horoya winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
47% The market–
Us47%

We make Horoya a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Horoya v Al Merreikh1.10 – 0.61
Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 4 SeptW1 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 16:36
Our probability · Horoya win

Published at 45%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Horoya win47%––
Draw33%––
Al Merreikh win20%––
Over 2.5 goals25%––
Both teams to score31%––
Over 1.5 goals51%––
Over 3.5 goals9%––
Horoya or draw80%––
Horoya clean sheet54%––
Al Merreikh clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.4%
0123450 18.5 10.7 3.4 1 19.4 12.6 3.7 2 10.9 6.7 2.1 3 4.0 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Horoya down, Al Merreikh across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · CAF Champions League this season · since 4 Sept

HOROYA

LW0–1 · 3–1

AL MERREIKH

WW1–0 · 1–0